Saturday, September 26, 2015

The Young Love

Let's recap some of the highlights of previous posts

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • If Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  • In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  • Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.
  • The test would be 8144. A break of 8144 could confirm an intermediate to long term bottom is in place at 7539.
  • If Nifty foes Below 7700, anything selling on NSE would be a good buy.
  • FIIs are keenly tracking international markets

And now the notes for this week

  1. Jen Yellen is America's answer to Raul Gandhi; no wonder that in the middle of an important election campaign, he's visiting the US; probably to mentor her further
  2. Tinkering with Interest Rates is no panacea for Economic Mismanagement or lack of ideas
  3. Anyway, if Nifty goes below 7520, it will test 7175 and 6700 below that. Below 7100 all theories and principles would go for a toss
  4. The Nifty could be probed for a long trade keeping 7520 as a stop. The target would be 8400 - 9400 - 10200
  5. The world markets are not out of the woods as yet and so is Nifty, but buying below 7762 with 7520 as stop could continue to yield short term gains
  6. The Outlook for the week is rangebound with a positive bias towards the later part of the week

N.B. New subscriptions for Oct - Nov Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Nov - Dec Cycle.



Sunday, September 20, 2015

The Paradigm of Abstract

Let's recap some of the highlights of previous posts

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • If Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  • In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  • Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.

And now the notes for this week

  1. Apparently, Nifty along with the major world indices, haven't bottomed out yet.
  2. The test would be 8144. A break of 8144 could confirm an intermediate to long term bottom is in place at 7539.
  3. If Nifty foes Below 7700, anything selling on NSE would be a good buy.
  4. FIIs are keenly tracking international markets
  5. EWP: Nifty seems to have finished the 3rd of the Wave "C".

N.B. New subscriptions for Oct - Nov Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Nov - Dec Cycle.



Sunday, September 13, 2015

The Weekly Outlook

Let's recap the important points till now

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810

And now the notes for this week

  1. This is the week that would help markets find the bottom for short to intermediate term.
  2. The FOMC is likely to raise interest rates by 25 bps, to which world markets could react sharply
  3. In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  4. Although the recent low looks good on long term charts, but in case FOMC raises interest rates then, a retest of 7600 on Friday, Sep 18, 2015 can't be ruled out
  5. Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.

N.B. New subscriptions for Oct - Nov Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Nov - Dec Cycle.



Sunday, September 6, 2015

The Big Boss

Let's recap the important points till now

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level.
  • A breakout above 8670 with good volumes should see Nifty carrying all the way till 9019; on the other hand if 8305 is breached then it should go all the way till 7980;
  • The outlook for the Swing is that present state of confusion should be resolved by End of the Aug-F&O-Series
  • Nifty could bounce with a vengeance as long as it trades above 7800.
  • Minimum upside target for the following bounce would be 8383 on the high
  • The Critical HVN is at 8445, which is now a strong resistance; and 8423 is it's entry door
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Nifty made a low 7667, and bounced from there, a bounce that has been sluggish so far. And, so far this bounce looks corrective in nature
  • Nifty has been unable to find value below 8485; it may return to that level in a snap
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely

And now the notes for this week

  1. Nobody would question the Governor of the Central Bank if on Monday of a certain week, he states that the Economic Turbulence in China would have no effect on our economy, while on the Saturday of the same week, he states that the country is not immune to the repercussions of Chinese Economic Problems.
  2. Had I displayed an exuberance of a similar level, a few dozen, SEBI registered technical analysts, and forums of all colours would have been filled by criticism, as if I am the Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the year is 2010, and while munching some tasty sandwiches, on CNBC lunch hour, I casually remark that I am short, which causes a flash crash forcing a few hundred bankruptcies.
  3. Anyway, people would be people, but if Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  4. The Bias for the coming week is also negative and the bears may run out of breath by Wednesday.
  5. Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  6. That's it, enjoy your sandwiches, but don't forget to spread some extra mayonnaise on them