Sunday, March 22, 2015

Now that Spring is in the Air...

  • As expected, Nifty is going down slowly and has almost reached our first target of 8531 falling from 9119.
  • If Nifty breaches 8530 then our next and final Target is 8270 corresponding with 17,600 in Bank Nifty
  • The expected range is 8440 to 8737, with the high coming first.
  • A dead cat bounce is expected from around 8520 ± 25
  • For Bank Nifty the expected weekly range is 18,350 to 18,880


Sunday, March 15, 2015

Googly

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  • RecapTo summarise, Nifty is expected to touch 9037 odd levels before continuing down towards 8757 and lower levels.
  • Nifty failed to bounce towards 90XX levels, and continued it's tail spin towards 85XX levels, thereby indicating weakness on the previous Monday itself, by breaking below 8757 in first few hours of trading
  • This week the expected range for Nifty is 8530 to 8850
  • There is a confluence of important supports around 8550 ± 30 points, and Nifty is likley to find support in this potential reversal zone. Below this zone we could talk only in terms of probable support zones and not in terms of Reversal Zone
  • Ideal scenario would be Nifty finds support at 8537 on Monday, 16th March 2015 after 10:30 AM IST. And bounces to retest 8675, 8860 levels, in next two days. The major Pivot for the Week should be 8637.
  • Bank Nifty is expected to take Support at 18,3XX level, and could bounce to test 19000
  • Nifty is still in an uptrend, but undergoing consolidation, between 7500 to 9100 levels for a final target of 12,100 to 13,000 within an year or so.


Sunday, March 8, 2015

Vanishing Point

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  • Recap
    • Broadly Nifty could continue to be rangebound till RBI publishes it's policy review, with a possibility of a spike towards 9117 happening anytime from now till the announcement
    • Nifty should mark a top about 9117, by 13 March 2015. Probably it'd do that earlier than by last date.
    • The expected range for the week is 8800 to 9050.
    • The Festival of Holi in 2015 is an important turning date. The weekly high is likely to be registered by Tuesday
  • Nifty formed the weekly high on Wednesday Morning due to RBIs "rate cut" announcement.
  • Since Rate Cut was less than market expectation, Nifty formed a top at 9119, 2 points above our target.
  • After the effect of RBI announcement was over, and Nifty had fulfilled it's expected target, it fell down some 200 points on the same day.
  • Looking at coming week, Nifty is expected to trade in a range of 9037 to 8757.
  • The probable path it might take could be that it might slowly move towards 9037, while still trading mainly in 8893 to 8997.
  • Then topping around 9016 to 9062, it might quickly fall down towards 8757.
  • Timewise, there are two paths Nifty could take viz., (a) Reach 9037 on Monday itself or (b)Reach 9037 on Thursday.
  • Under (a) above Nifty reaches 9037 odd levels by Monday EOD then falls till Thursday EOD towards 8757 and stages a sharp bounce afterwards.
  • Under (b) above Nifty keeps drifting towards 9037 ever so slowly, till Thursday, and then falls sharply towards 8757 by Friday EOD
  • To summarise, Nifty is expected to touch 9037 odd levels before continuing down towards 8757 and lower levels.


Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Cherish

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  • Nifty achieved 9117 and fell down some two hundred points from there
  • For 5th March 2015 - Nifty is likely to trade between 8949 and 8823 levels. The Bias is negative, but outlook is primarily rangebound
  1. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8826. The RSI (14) is at 59.8 Dn by 5.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.2 Dn by 28 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 86.3 a change of -13.2 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.5
  2. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.5 Up by 1.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.28 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  3. Price Action: On Wed 04 Mar 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 9109.15 ( 146 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 9119.2 ( 110 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8893.95 ( -32 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8922.65 ( -74 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 256,060,375 ( 40% Higher than last trading session, and about 33.3% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 169.91% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 10.05 Points, and the body was equal to 186.5 and lower shadow was equal to 28.7
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8913; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8850; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8766; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8603; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 8060. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 04 Mar 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.39, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.72. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -5.38, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8743, Over Sold at 8793 the mean is at 8914, Over Bought at 9035 and Extremely Over Bought at 9085
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 Volume was 256,060,375 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 197,000,000. The MFI reading was 74 while previously it was 73.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 was 28,639,700 while previously it was 29,457,600 a change of -2.78% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 6.25% while previously it was 10.30% while the change in Open Interest was -3.31% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 30-Apr-2015 was 7.25% while previously it was 8.73% while the change in Open Interest was 8.65% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 was 81,135,600 while previously it was 79,420,575 a change of 2.16%
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 61.8543 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0156 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -3.9% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,90,540. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.041


Sunday, March 1, 2015

Talking Back to the Night

  • Recap of last three weekly posts:
  • Nifty would most probably restart it's journey for 9117 after finding a bottom between 8445 and 8537. However there is a confluence of many lines around 8560, so that could play a pivotal role both as a support and a resistance
  • It should reach 9117 before Budget 2015, due for 28 Feb 2015.
  • From now till Budget, no weekly closing is likely to exceed 8861. So the high of 9117, would be an intra week climax, or a Monday High.
  • This week Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 8445 to 8745. With the bottom happening on Tuesday.
  • Looking at from a different perspective, one could say that Nifty is rangebound from Next week till Mid March.
  • There is a confluence of pivots between 8840 and 8930, both static and dynamic, and Nifty's current bounce from 8470, is likely to meet stiff resistance here.
  • If Nifty fails to clear the 8930 level by Wednesday end of the day (Tuesday being a Holiday), it might pull back a bit, but unlikely to go below 8637.
  • The range for Nifty this week seems to be 8637 to 8960
  • After hitting the bottom at 8470, Nifty has not been able to move past 8913. Although the pullback towards 8745 is still pending.
  • Nifty's range till this Friday is expected to be 8745 to 8985.
  • Market is expecting a rate cut of 50 basis points by RBI in early March
  • Broadly Nifty could continue to be rangebound till RBI publishes it's policy review, with a possibility of a spike towards 9117 happening anytime from now till the announcement
  • Budget 2015 is likely to be as per the market expectations. All the expectations and possible outcomes are likely to be factored into the prices by Friday 27th Feb EOD.
  • The Previous Post was all in Italics. Now for this week's outlook

  • Nifty marked a bottom at 8470 and then it went up was resisted at 8913 fell down to 8669 and rose back to test 8900.
  • Nifty should mark a top about 9117, by 13 March 2015. Probably it'd do that earlier than by last date.
  • The expected range for the week is 8800 to 9050.
  • The Festival of Holi in 2015 is an important turning date. The weekly high is likely to be registered by Tuesday