Thursday, February 26, 2015

Short Update

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  • Recap: Outlook for Wednesday: Nifty seems to be ready for a bounce towards 8872 and beyond. A close above 8900 would be singularly bullish
  • Nifty failed to bounce beyond the old resistance of 8840, and has finally come down to test 8628 - 8664 zone.
  • The first confirmation of a reversal would be a close above 8745
  • The 8628 - 8664 range is a potential reversal zone. Major Pivots below this zone are at 8565, 8531, 8470, and 8393
  • The target of 9117 would be negated if Nifty closed below 8470.


Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Joy (in my heart)

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  • Recap from last post on Friday:For Monday, 23 Feb 2015, Nifty is expected to continue in consolidation mode, with a visit to 8920 a distinct possibility.
  • Nifty opened at 8856 made a high of 8869 and then fell down to 8736. However Nifty Index Futures gapped up by about 100 points in all three series as compared with the gap up of mere 23 points in the Nifty Index. So the prediction in terms of Futures was correct. However there was no aberration in Call Options opening.
  • Options Data suggest across the board Call unwinding. On the other hand there was no interest in Put Writing also. This is basically a bullish picture, where bulls are confident and bears are waiting for a confirmation.
  • Futures Data suggest that there was short covering at lower levels followed by long additions in the March Series.
  • Outlook for Wednesday: Nifty seems to be ready for a bounce towards 8872 and beyond. A close above 8900 would be singularly bullish
  1. Price Action: On Tue 24 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8772.9 ( -84 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8800.5 ( -69 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8726.75 ( -10 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8762.1 ( 7 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 154,368,611 ( 7% Higher than last trading session, and about -12.3% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -55.99% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 27.6 Points, and the body was equal to 10.8 and lower shadow was equal to 35.35
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8741. The RSI (14) is at 54.8 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.8 Up by 0.9 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 29.6 a change of 6.4 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 23.2
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 21.9 Dn by 0.7 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.4 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8788; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8764; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8636; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8507; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7986. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Tue 24 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.59, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.55. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -19.29, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8636, Over Sold at 8680 the mean is at 8788, Over Bought at 8897 and Extremely Over Bought at 8941
  7. Volumes: On Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 Volume was 154,368,611 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 177,500,000. The MFI reading was 58.5 while previously it was 57.3. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 was 28,323,075 while previously it was 27,023,300 a change of 4.81% which is considered to be SIGNIFICANT The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 23.31% while previously it was -2.08% while the change in Open Interest was -23.15% which might suggest SHORTS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 8.73% while previously it was 8.16% while the change in Open Interest was 49.92% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 was 110,853,400 while previously it was 112,214,775 a change of -1.21%
    • The daily VIX closed at 21.55, while previous close was 21.63, a change of -0.38% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.74 while yesterday it was 0.79 a change of -0.05 or -6.32 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,088,450 a change of -8% and IV of 21.46 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.1.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 5,732,175 a change of -7% and IV of 19.46 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.2.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9100 with Open Interest at 3,290,750 a change of -20% and IV of 24.07 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 14.9.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 4,496,375 a change of 4% and IV of 17.6 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,431,625 a change of -0% and IV of 22.76 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 9000 with Open Interest at 1,129,425 a change of -34% and IV of - with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 47.4.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.2758 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.092 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 5.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 25,89,386. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.1561


Saturday, February 21, 2015

Thrifty Nifty

  • Recap of last two posts:
  • Feel a little rusty, writing a weekly outlook after such a lonnng time.
  • Nifty would most probably restart it's journey for 9117 after finding a bottom between 8445 and 8537. However there is a confluence of many lines around 8560, so that could play a pivotal role both as a support and a resistance
  • It should reach 9117 before Budget 2015, due for 28 Feb 2015.
  • From now till Budget, no weekly closing is likely to exceed 8861. So the high of 9117, would be an intra week climax, or a Monday High.
  • This week Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 8445 to 8745. With the bottom happening on Tuesday.
  • Looking at from a different perspective, one could say that Nifty is rangebound from Next week till Mid March.

  • Nifty after forming a short term bottom at 8470, onTuesday, 10th Feb 2015, began to rise swiftly. Now for this week's outlook.
  • There is a confluence of pivots between 8840 and 8930, both static and dynamic, and Nifty's current bounce from 8470, is likely to meet stiff resistance here.
  • If Nifty fails to clear the 8930 level by Wednesday end of the day (Tuesday being a Holiday), it might pull back a bit, but unlikely to go below 8637.
  • The range for Nifty this week seems to be 8637 to 8960

The Previous Post was all in Italics. Now for this week's outlook

  1. After hitting the bottom at 8470, Nifty has not been able to move past 8913. Although the pullback towards 8745 is still pending.
  2. Nifty's range till this Friday is expected to be 8745 to 8985.
  3. Market is expecting a rate cut of 50 basis points by RBI in early March
  4. Broadly Nifty could continue to be rangebound till RBI publishes it's policy review, with a possibility of a spike towards 9117 happening anytime from now till the announcement
  5. Budget 2015 is likely to be as per the market expectations. All the expectations and possible outcomes are likely to be factored into the prices by Friday 27th Feb EOD.


The Gallop of Epona

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  • Recap:Warning: Nifty is approaching the Climax of the rise from 8470, avoid carrying heavy positions overnight. Nifty would continue to inch up ever so slowly now.
  • Nifty opened up smartly at 8895.50 but failed to sustain higher levels around 8900, as evidenced by the fact that the day high was 8899.95, and after quickly registering the day low at 8816.30 traded sideways for most part of the day. The closing was nearer the day low, as has been noticed for past few sessions that closing happens near the day low or day high, but ineffectual factor, as far as the indication for probable direction is concerned.
  • The Stop Loss on closing basis for longs is 8745. However it'd be best advised that people holding long positions should limit their long exposure below 8790.
  • Nifty seems to be consolidating around 8861 for the magnum opus. The trend at intermediate degree is changing, but it continues to be bullish in the short term as long as Nifty doesn't close below 8745.
  • The RSI 14 is hanging around 60. RSI 5 is at 59. RSI 5 has formed a positive reversal within the last 5 bars. This might lead to a bounce towards 8930 odd levels, as long as 8790 is not breached.
  • The candlesticks that have formed in last two trading sessions carry bearish connotations. But they are within the range of the previous swing, so they need a confirmation, like breaking of 8790 on closing basis.
  • Although Nifty traded in red for most part of the day, and closed near the low of the day, the market breadth wasn't bad at all, indicating that there was not much selling pressure.
  • Volumes were above average, whichi suggests controlled distribution. It is to be expected since apparently Nifty is in the process of forming a medium term top at these levels.
  • The Futures data suggest long rollover to March Series. Whereas Options data suggest that 8800 +/- 20 points continue to be a good support in Feb Series, and 9000 +/- 20 points continue to be a strong resistance for the same series. To sum up the OI data Nifty is rangebound between these two levels.
  • For Monday, 23 Feb 2015, Nifty is expected to continue in consolidation mode, with a visit to 8920 a distinct possibility.
  1. Price Action: On Fri 20 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8895.5 ( 12 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8899.95 ( -14 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8816.3 ( 21 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8833.6 ( -62 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 203,714,864 ( -7% Lower than last trading session, and about 13.4% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 62.04% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 4.45 Points, and the body was equal to 61.9 and lower shadow was equal to 17.3
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8748. The RSI (14) is at 60.2 Dn by 5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -20.2 Dn by 8 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 88.7 a change of -10.9 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.6
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 23.3 Up by 0.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.4 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8824; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8766; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8614; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8489; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7966. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Fri 20 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.01, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.89. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 15.41, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8671, Over Sold at 8716 the mean is at 8825, Over Bought at 8934 and Extremely Over Bought at 8979
  7. Volumes: On Friday 20 Feb 2015 Volume was 203,714,864 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 187,800,000. The MFI reading was 55.7 while previously it was 54.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 20 Feb 2015 was 27,376,525 while previously it was 27,701,550 a change of -1.17% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 10.91% while previously it was 12.21% while the change in Open Interest was -7.78% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.19% while previously it was 9.06% while the change in Open Interest was 61.48% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 20 Feb 2015 was 108,943,650 while previously it was 105,495,400 a change of 3.27%
    • The daily VIX closed at 21.27, while previous close was 20.4, a change of 4.27% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.91 while yesterday it was 0.99 a change of -0.07 or -8.08 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.09 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,303,175 a change of 20% and IV of 15.88 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 5,403,575 a change of 17% and IV of 16.05 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,303,175 a change of 20% and IV of 15.88 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6600 with Open Interest at 219,125 a change of -10% and IV of 122.57 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 79.7.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 4,301,525 a change of -0% and IV of 16.36 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 3,894,375 a change of 4% and IV of 16.7 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.7.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8900 with Open Interest at 2,613,425 a change of -10% and IV of 15.55 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,800 a change of 3% and IV of 79.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 11.9.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.255 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.01 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.2% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,88,322. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0735


Thursday, February 19, 2015

Flameout

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  • Recap:Tomorrow, i.e., on Thursday, 19 Feb 2015, Nifty is likely to continue it's journey northwards, towards 8930, 8950 levels. But a close above 8861 is a must for Nifty to remain bullish.
  • Nifty opened gap up at 8883 then slipped to 8794.45 following which it made a smart recovery to register the day high at 8913.45 and closed at 8895.30. On the candlestick charts, the candle that formed was like a deformed hanging man.
  • Highest OI for Calls continue to be at 9000 Strike. But there was net reduction in the OI by the end of the day. Second Highest OI continues to be at 8900 and there wasn't much change in the OI at this strike.
  • Highest OI for Puts is 8800, a big change from yesterday. The 8500 Strike which held the highest OI for most part of the series has been relegated to the second position now.
  • The Put to Call ratio has been increasing gradually and steadily, suggesting that more puts are being written than the Calls.
  • The VIX has apparently reached a stage of a plateau and continues to be at 20.
  • The Futures data suggest short unwinding and addition of longs at lower levels.
  • The Volumes for the day were quiet heavy. The body of the day was only 12.5 points. This suggests distribution. Apparently we are nearing the top of this swing.
  • Warning: Nifty is approaching the Climax of the rise from 8470, avoid carrying heavy positions overnight. Nifty would continue to inch up ever so slowly now. Thank You.
  1. Price Action: On Thu 19 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8883.05 ( 71 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8913.45 ( 19 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8794.45 ( -15 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8895.3 ( 26 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 219,867,400 ( 45% Higher than last trading session, and about 23.5% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 107.98% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 18.15 Points, and the body was equal to 12.25 and lower shadow was equal to 88.6
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8726. The RSI (14) is at 65.2 Up by 1.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -12.2 Up by 1.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.6 a change of 0.2 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.6
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 23 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.41 Dn by 0.07 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8820; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8755; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8598; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8479; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7955. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Thu 19 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.89, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.53. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 12.78, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8664, Over Sold at 8709 the mean is at 8821, Over Bought at 8932 and Extremely Over Bought at 8977
  7. Volumes: On Thursday 19 Feb 2015 Volume was 219,867,400 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 189,100,000. The MFI reading was 54.1 while previously it was 54.9. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 19 Feb 2015 was 27,701,550 while previously it was 27,709,025 a change of -0.03% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 12.21% while previously it was 11.41% while the change in Open Interest was -2.65% which might suggest SHORTS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.06% while previously it was 9.04% while the change in Open Interest was 34.18% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 19 Feb 2015 was 105,495,400 while previously it was 104,947,325 a change of 0.52%
    • The daily VIX closed at 20.4, while previous close was 20.91, a change of -2.46% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.99 while yesterday it was 0.96 a change of 0.03 or 3.12 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.09 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,086,350 a change of -8% and IV of 16.59 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.7.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,627,250 a change of 1% and IV of 17.65 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,086,350 a change of -8% and IV of 16.59 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.7.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6700 with Open Interest at 276,900 a change of -8% and IV of 120.44 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 83.5.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 4,313,700 a change of 13% and IV of 15.24 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,876,800 a change of -2% and IV of 18.99 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.7.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 2,222,900 a change of -25% and IV of 24.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 22.2.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,600 a change of 4% and IV of 74.32 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.5.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.245 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0427 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,83,008. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0265


Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Behold, He is coming with the clouds...

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  • Recap: Now for Wednesday, 18th Feb 2015, the outlook seems to be range bound with negative bias. Nifty is likely to test lower levels, but is unlikely to fall below 8718 level. Once this correction is over, Nifty would continue to move higher for 8930 odd levels
  • The Nifty was rangebound for most part of the day, though bias was overwhelmingly positive throughout the session. Nifty opened at 8811 and made a low of 8808.90 during the opening session itself, and never did it come near it. In the post lunch session Nifty continued for it's journey towards 8930 odd levels, and registered an intraday high of 8894.30.
  • The OI data at close suggests that intraday PE buildup around 8800 was used by day traders for making some quick bucks, and the supports around this strike aren't very robust. However 9000 continues to be a favorite with CE writers. This might indicate that 9000 +/- 20 points continue to be perceived as a strong resistance by Options Writers. Since VIX continues to be higher, it's attracting a lot of Option Writing interest. Futures data suggest slow build up of and or rolling over of Feb longs to March Shorts.
  • Volumes have been very low for past couple of sessions, but Nifty continues to rise past some tough resistances, which indicates a general consensus among market participants about the very short term valuations.
  • Tomorrow, i.e., on Thursday, 19 Feb 2015, Nifty is likely to continue it's journey northwards, towards 8930, 8950 levels. But a close above 8861 is a must for Nifty to remain bullish.
  • Just happened to check my e-mail, and looolzzz, there are so many comments interspersed in different posts, would take hours to reply to each one of them. So I am just replying here,(a)I don't have any kinds of paid services, and there are no plans to start one in this lifetime;(b) if there would be any change of levels or targets, I'd post that information here.(c)I run intraday thread under the pseudonym of pk_chivas on vfmdirect.com. Thanks
  1. Price Action: On Wed 18 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8811.55 ( -20 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8894.3 ( 24 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8808.9 ( 15 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8869.1 ( 59 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 152,152,801 ( 8% Higher than last trading session, and about -13.2% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -60.93% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 25.2 Points, and the body was equal to 57.55 and lower shadow was equal to 2.65
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8705. The RSI (14) is at 64 Up by 2.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -13.6 Up by 6.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.4 a change of 1.3 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.4
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.5 Up by 0.2 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.49 Up by 0.04 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8783; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8731; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8580; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8470; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7945. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 18 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.53, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.75. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 14.79, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8627, Over Sold at 8673 the mean is at 8783, Over Bought at 8894 and Extremely Over Bought at 8939
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 Volume was 152,152,801 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 188,900,000. The MFI reading was 54.9 while previously it was 55.6. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 was 27,709,025 while previously it was 27,625,600 a change of 0.3% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 11.41% while previously it was 14.76% while the change in Open Interest was -1.92% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.04% while previously it was 9.83% while the change in Open Interest was 41.53% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 was 104,947,325 while previously it was 103,056,175 a change of 1.84%
    • The daily VIX closed at 20.91, while previous close was 20.83, a change of 0.42% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.96 while yesterday it was 0.95 a change of 0.01 or 1.05 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,613,475 a change of 6% and IV of 16.06 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,571,950 a change of -0% and IV of 16.19 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,613,475 a change of 6% and IV of 16.06 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 50,800 a change of -3% and IV of 93.78 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 57.8.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,950,725 a change of 2% and IV of 19.9 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,828,025 a change of 6% and IV of 16.9 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 3,742,075 a change of 6% and IV of 17.76 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,375 a change of -44% and IV of 70.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 36.5.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.245 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0427 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,83,008. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0265


Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Pictures come alive

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  • Recap: Now it is being expected that on Monday, Nifty would continue it's journey northwards, and test 8840 to 8900 range. And by a long shot, it's bounce might get arrested there. After which it moves sideways with a negative bias.
  • Nifty made a high of 8870 and got sold off to 8793.40 following that. On the candlestick charts it was a black "shooting star like" candle within the range of the previous swing. The volumes were unusually low owing to the holiday on Tuesday.
  • In the intraday charts, it seems Nifty is doing a 4th wave of the move from 8470. So far it seems to have partially completed a 3 wave corrective structure from 8870 top.
  • The OI data suggests, that 8800 is being perceived to be a safe support, so Put Writers are boldly writing Puts for that Strike.
  • Now for Wednesday, 18th Feb 2015, the outlook seems to be range bound with negative bias. Nifty is likely to test lower levels, but is unlikely to fall below 8718 level. Once this correction is over, Nifty would continue to move higher for 8930 odd levels
  • Options writers could write 8500 PE. Thanks for reading this - Enjoy.
  1. Price Action: On Mon 16 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8831.4 ( 89 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8870.1 ( 48 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8793.4 ( 63 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8809.35 ( 3 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 140,637,331 ( -39% Lower than last trading session, and about -20.5% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -92.08% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 38.7 Points, and the body was equal to 22.05 and lower shadow was equal to 15.95
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8673. The RSI (14) is at 61.2 Up by 0.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -20.1 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 98.1 a change of 0.1 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 98.1
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.3 Up by 0.1 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.44 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8740; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8707; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8561; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8464; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7935. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Mon 16 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.75, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.22. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -6.23, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8581, Over Sold at 8628 the mean is at 8740, Over Bought at 8852 and Extremely Over Bought at 8899
  7. Volumes: On Monday 16 Feb 2015 Volume was 140,637,331 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 201,400,000. The MFI reading was 55.6 while previously it was 56.4. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 16 Feb 2015 was 27,625,600 while previously it was 27,179,525 a change of 1.64% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 14.76% while previously it was 11.47% while the change in Open Interest was 0.94% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.83% while previously it was 9.21% while the change in Open Interest was 16.89% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. The daily VIX closed at 20.83, while previous close was 20.1, a change of 3.59% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
  11. The Index PCR is 0.95 while yesterday it was 0.91 a change of 0.03 or 4.39 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.82 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  12. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 16 Feb 2015 was 103,056,175 while previously it was 100,883,425 a change of 2.15%
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,233,675 a change of 1% and IV of 16.79 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.3.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,572,100 a change of 30% and IV of 17.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,572,100 a change of 30% and IV of 17.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 14,275 a change of -10% and IV of 97.32 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 78.3.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,881,850 a change of -6% and IV of 18.62 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.2.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,621,250 a change of 18% and IV of 15.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8600 with Open Interest at 3,494,400 a change of -17% and IV of 17.49 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 6.5.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 11,325 a change of -10% and IV of 61.79 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 24.7.
  13. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.2023 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0663 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,94,766. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.9938


Sunday, February 15, 2015

Call me at 9117 9117 9117

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First a recap of the last week's post...
  1. Feel a little rusty, writing a weekly outlook after such a lonnng time.
  2. Nifty would most probably restart it's journey for 9117 after finding a bottom between 8445 and 8537. However there is a confluence of many lines around 8560, so that could play a pivotal role both as a support and a resistance
  3. It should reach 9117 before Budget 2015, due for 28 Feb 2015.
  4. From now till Budget, no weekly closing is likely to exceed 8861. So the high of 9117, would be an intra week climax, or a Monday High.
  5. This week Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 8445 to 8745. With the bottom happening on Tuesday.
  6. Looking at from a different perspective, one could say that Nifty is rangebound from Next week till Mid March.
Nifty after forming a short term bottom at 8470, onTuesday, 10th Feb 2015, began to rise swiftly. Now for this week's outlook.
  1. There is a confluence of pivots between 8840 and 8930, both static and dynamic, and Nifty's current bounce from 8470, is likely to meet stiff resistance here.
  2. If Nifty fails to clear the 8930 level by Wednesday end of the day (Tuesday being a Holiday), it might pull back a bit, but unlikely to go below 8637.
  3. The range for Nifty this week seems to be 8637 to 8960
  4. Rest would be covered in Daily Outlook


Saturday, February 14, 2015

3 Patterns

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  • On Friday the 13th, Nifty opened gap up and continued in the same direction till the close. This was somewhat unexpected as lots of Call writers especially for 8600 and 8800 were caught completely by surprise, and even FIIs had to book partial losses on their overnight Futures positions, as is evidenced by their derivatives statistics.
  • Nifty is forming a complex top and it appears that currently it is in the process of forming 3 different but very complex patterns in three different time frames. All the three patterns carry bearish connotations.
  • Now it is being expected that on Monday, Nifty would continue it's journey northwards, and test 8840 to 8900 range. And by a long shot, it's bounce might get arrested there. After which it moves sideways with a negative bias.
  • Descriptive annotation of the data generated at end of the day, would highlight the unusually high volumes that backed this spectacular move, which synchronised with good market breadth.
  • The RSI seems to have taken support at 45, hence it could be expected that it might shift to 45 - 85 range. The 5 day RSI, which had formed a reverse bullish divergence earlier, has risen up and is and is now testing 70 level.
  • Nifty is trading above all it's averages. The Market Structure is technically bullish. All the breadth indicators have generated a buy signal. But that is just a technical signal it doesn't mean we should buy stocks when the market is, apparently topping out.
  • The OI data suggest, that the call writers are now moving to the safe zone of 9200, after abandoning (and burning their fingers with) 8600 to 8800 strikes. This is actually strange, either these people can't calculate or didn't bother to calculate the Phi of the swing!
  • Highest OI for puts has shifted to 8600 now. Which is a very sharp and smart calculation. 8800 puts were being written in great haste, giving an impression that they would want to capitalise from the very short term movement from Nifty, otherwise they would be the next to burn their fingers.
  • It is expected that Nifty is going to form a very short term top on Monday somewhere between 8861 and 8900. The Final Target for Nifty is fixed at 9117. But before going to 9117, Nifty could test 8637. The Turning times are 10:25, 12:05, 13:55. Thank You
  1. Price Action: On Fri 13 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8741.5 ( 64 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8822.1 ( 89 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8729.65 ( 130 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8805.5 ( 93 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 228,807,812 ( 40% Higher than last trading session, and about 27.6% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 120.36% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 16.6 Points, and the body was equal to 64 and lower shadow was equal to 11.85
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8636. The RSI (14) is at 61.1 Up by 4.6 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -20.5 Up by 10 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 97.9 a change of 14.5 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 97.9
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.1 Dn by 0.2 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.43 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8705; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8690; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8545; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8459; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7925. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Fri 13 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.22, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.7. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 0.23, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8543, Over Sold at 8590 the mean is at 8706, Over Bought at 8821 and Extremely Over Bought at 8868
  7. Volumes: On Friday 13 Feb 2015 Volume was 228,807,812 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 211,400,000. The MFI reading was 56.4 while previously it was 55.9. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 13 Feb 2015 was 27,179,525 while previously it was 26,476,250 a change of 2.66% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 11.47% while previously it was 12.14% while the change in Open Interest was 1.98% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.21% while previously it was 9.35% while the change in Open Interest was 18.25% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 13 Feb 2015 was 100,883,425 while previously it was 98,576,350 a change of 2.34%
    • The daily VIX closed at 20.1, while previous close was 20.16, a change of -0.27% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 17 to 11
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,174,050 a change of 0% and IV of 15.53 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9200 with Open Interest at 3,562,450 a change of -3% and IV of 16.37 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,077,700 a change of -18% and IV of 15.85 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 4.2.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 15,900 a change of -11% and IV of 60.21 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 92.5.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8600 with Open Interest at 4,199,900 a change of 2% and IV of 16.25 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.5.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 4,132,425 a change of -2% and IV of 17.68 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.9.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,066,050 a change of 78% and IV of 14.42 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 11.7.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 12,625 a change of -4% and IV of 55.64 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 31.1.
    • The Index PCR is 0.91 while yesterday it was 0.8 a change of 0.11 or 13.75 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.82 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.136 and it Lost against the INR by about -0.294 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.1% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,421,998. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.9533


Thursday, February 12, 2015

Would it hold above 8700?

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  1. It's been a long time since Nifty did something that couldn't have been forecasted through usual technical analysis stuff. But now the time is ripe.
  2. If Nifty didn't close above 8745 tomorrow, then there is a likelihood of it's retesting 8550 again, during the coming week.
  3. I could define the upper range of Nifty around 8775, but reluctant to define the lower range, if nothing untoward happenned then 8666, otherwise 8534
  4. The OI data, today, doesn't provide strong clues because of intraday writing activity. As per it, the support is around 8570 and Resistance at 9117.
  • Price Action: On Thu 12 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8676.95 ( 73 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8732.55 ( 80 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8599.25 ( 5 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8711.55 ( 84 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 163,681,352 ( -2% Lower than last trading session, and about -7% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -27.1% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 21 Points, and the body was equal to 34.6 and lower shadow was equal to 77.7
  • Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8608. The RSI (14) is at 56.5 Up by 4.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.6 Up by 9 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 83.4 a change of 63.5 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 83.4
  • Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.4 Dn by 1 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.43 Dn by 0.01 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  • Market Breadth: As on Thu 12 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.7, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 2.13. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -13.34, which is considered as Normal
  • Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8492, Over Sold at 8540 the mean is at 8656, Over Bought at 8771 and Extremely Over Bought at 8819
  • Volumes: On Thursday 12 Feb 2015 Volume was 163,681,352 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 207,300,000. The MFI reading was 55.9 while previously it was 56.2. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  • Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  • Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 12 Feb 2015 was 26,476,250 while previously it was 25,906,750 a change of 2.2% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 12.14% while previously it was 12.24% while the change in Open Interest was 2.01% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.35% while previously it was 9.91% while the change in Open Interest was 6.88% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  • The Index PCR is 0.8 while yesterday it was 0.77 a change of 0.03 or 3.89 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.82 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  • The daily VIX closed at 20.16, while previous close was 20.5, a change of -1.68% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 17 to 11
  • Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 12 Feb 2015 was 98,576,350 while previously it was 97,462,375 a change of 1.14%
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,172,200 a change of -1% and IV of 17.17 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.3.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 3,919,450 a change of -7% and IV of 17.11 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.3.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 3,919,450 a change of -7% and IV of 17.11 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.3.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6700 with Open Interest at 309,525 a change of -1% and IV of 72.59 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 83.3.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 4,227,225 a change of 2% and IV of 16.63 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.5.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8600 with Open Interest at 4,118,025 a change of 21% and IV of 15.44 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 4.3.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8600 with Open Interest at 4,118,025 a change of 21% and IV of 15.44 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 4.3.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 13,100 a change of 1% and IV of 52.29 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 36.8.
  • USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.43 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.2764 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.6% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,23,712. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.8953


Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Waiting for the breakout

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  1. The USDINR after crossng over to 62 seems to have gotten stuck, and that has resulted in reduction in OI.
  2. The highest OI in Index Call Options continue to be pegged at 9000 Strike.
  3. Meanwhile there was Call winding at 8900, which also happens to be holding the second highest OI for calls
  4. Highest OI for puts continue to be for 8500, while the second highest OI continues to be for 8300, also good additions at that level indicates the high level of confidence in Put Writers. Actually there is not much interest in Options writing at this stage.
  5. Now Nifty needs to move up and close above the 13 DEMA currently at 8663.
  6. Now it appears Nifty was consolidating in a narrow range, just below the trendline, in order to break out of this range in a spectacular manner. So if tomorrow nifty breaks above 8661 on the up ,or 8598 on the down, that would determine the direction of this spectacular move. Thank You!
  7. Price Action: On Wed 11 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8603.3 ( 125 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8651.95 ( 5 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8593.65 ( 123 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8627.4 ( 61 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 166,560,867 ( -18% Lower than last trading session, and about -5.8% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -21.32% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 24.55 Points, and the body was equal to 24.1 and lower shadow was equal to 9.65
  8. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8610. The RSI (14) is at 51.7 Up by 3.8 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -39.6 Up by 6.6 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 19.8 a change of 18.6 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 0.1
  9. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 23.4 Dn by 1.6 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.45 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  10. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8627; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8663; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8511; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8450; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7905. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  11. Market Breadth: As on Wed 11 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 2.13, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.97. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -42.93, which is considered as Normal
  12. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8466, Over Sold at 8513 the mean is at 8627, Over Bought at 8742 and Extremely Over Bought at 8789
  13. Volumes: On Wednesday 11 Feb 2015 Volume was 166,560,867 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 211,700,000. The MFI reading was 56.2 while previously it was 56.6. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  14. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently SELL ON BOUNCES
  15. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 11 Feb 2015 was 25,906,750 while previously it was 25,986,975 a change of -0.31% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 12.24% while previously it was 12.18% while the change in Open Interest was -0.54% which might suggest SHORTS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.91% while previously it was 10.13% while the change in Open Interest was 4.58% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  16. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 11 Feb 2015 was 97,462,375 while previously it was 97,625,800 a change of -0.17%
  17. The Index PCR is 0.77 while yesterday it was 0.89 a change of -0.12 or -13.48 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.82 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go DOWN in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  18. The daily VIX closed at 20.5, while previous close was 21.19, a change of -3.26% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 17 to 11
  19. Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,214,275 a change of 1% and IV of 17.15 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.4.
  20. Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,192,325 a change of -8% and IV of 16.85 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
  21. Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,192,325 a change of -8% and IV of 16.85 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
  22. Highest IV in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 55,375 a change of 4% and IV of 60.15 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 55.1.
  23. Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 4,142,850 a change of 5% and IV of 15.88 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.3.
  24. Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 3,545,450 a change of -8% and IV of 17.98 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 4.6.
  25. Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 3,545,450 a change of -8% and IV of 17.98 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 4.6.
  26. Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 12,925 a change of -2% and IV of 49.67 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.9.
  27. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.1536 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.1902 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -3.7% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 1,340,395. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.8028


Tuesday, February 10, 2015

A Short Update

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Since the complete outside bar has formed inside the down-sloping channel, we can not conclusively infer that a reversal has taken place. Outside bars are a continuation pattern. So unless Nifty closes at least above 8637, a reversal can't be confirmed. Expecting another high drama day on Wednesday. The Support is at 8430 and Resistance is at 8537 and 8650



Monday, February 9, 2015

AAP aur Hum

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  1. Nifty has actually accelerated in it's downtrend evident by the fact that the entire price bar for today formed outside the previous channel.
  2. There were no signs of any reversal, or retardation, even though Nifty zipped through the potential reversal zone (8531 to 8560) generating a warning signal that it might continue in this direction for more time. There wasn't any candlestick reversal pattern either.
  3. The next reversal zone is between 8420 and 8480. So there is a distinct possibility that Nifty might find support at 8479 and rip through 8600 level, thereby creating a piercing bottom.
  4. Nifty has come very close to the 34 DMA and tomorrow EOD it'd be around 8505.
  5. Nifty has support around 8445 and resistance around 8537.
  6. The McClellan and STIX both have gotten Oversold. The RSI(14) has reached 45, while it's important support is around 40.
  7. In the Futures segment there was no short covering, in fact there were signs of shorts being added in the March Series.
  8. In the Options segment, more calls were written than puts, and call writing was virtually spread across the strikes, whereas puts were being written around the 8300 Strike. 8300 PE witnessed huge additions, largest for any strikes in terms of share in the total volume.
  9. PCR has slipped further, indicating sustained bearish sentiment.
  10. In the past few sessions there was a good buildup in OI for USDINR. There is no change in that suggesting INR could fall further.
  11. To sum up, there is a very strong chance of a trend reversal tomorrow. Which might lead to a healthy bounce later on. Nifty is going to consolidate around 8530 and 8625 levels along the way.
  12. Price Action: On Mon 09 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8584.4 ( -113 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8605.55 ( -121 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8516.35 ( -130 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8526.35 ( -135 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 151,329,604 ( -14% Lower than last trading session, and about -13.9% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -46.72% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 21.15 Points, and the body was equal to 58.05 and lower shadow was equal to 10
  13. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8660. The RSI (14) is at 45.2 Dn by 8.5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -50.5 Dn by 14.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 0.1 a change of -1.3 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 0.1
  14. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 26.9 Dn by 1.7 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.46 Dn by 0.02 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  15. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8658; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8687; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8493; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8449; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7886. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  16. Market Breadth: As on Mon 09 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.32, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.3. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -104.11, which is considered as OS
  17. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8501, Over Sold at 8547 the mean is at 8659, Over Bought at 8770 and Extremely Over Bought at 8816
  18. Volumes: On Monday 09 Feb 2015 Volume was 151,329,604 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 216,600,000. The MFI reading was 56 while previously it was 61. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  19. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN A DOWNTREND
  20. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 09 Feb 2015 was 25,716,875 while previously it was 25,780,925 a change of -0.25% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 9.18% while previously it was 10.68% while the change in Open Interest was -0.64% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.43% while previously it was 9.85% while the change in Open Interest was 12.50% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  21. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 09 Feb 2015 was 93,102,900 while previously it was 88,049,300 a change of 5.74%
  22. Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 5,895,375 a change of 0% and IV of 18.26 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.2.
  23. Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 3,796,175 a change of 3% and IV of 18.08 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.
  24. Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8700 with Open Interest at 2,093,850 a change of 53% and IV of 18.41 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 6.3.
  25. Highest IV in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 17,800 a change of -6% and IV of 63.14 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 100.
  26. Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 4,041,175 a change of 34% and IV of 21.65 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 13.1.
  27. Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,641,200 a change of 19% and IV of 20.44 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 4.5.
  28. Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 4,041,175 a change of 34% and IV of 21.65 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 13.1.
  29. Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 14,150 a change of 1% and IV of 48.1 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.1.
  30. The Index PCR is 0.77 while yesterday it was 0.78 a change of -0.01 or -1.28 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.81 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go DOWN in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  31. The daily VIX closed at 22.02, while previous close was 20.69, a change of 6.43% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 17 to 11
  32. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.141 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.4047 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 22,09,965. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.698


Sunday, February 8, 2015

Weekly Outlook

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  1. Feel a little rusty, writing a weekly outlook after such a lonnng time.
  2. Nifty would most probably restart it's journey for 9117 after finding a bottom between 8445 and 8537. However there is a confluence of many lines around 8560, so that could play a pivotal role both as a support and a resistance
  3. It should reach 9117 before Budget 2015, due for 28 Feb 2015.
  4. From now till Budget, no weekly closing is likely to exceed 8861. So the high of 9117, would be an intra week climax, or a Monday High.
  5. This week Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 8445 to 8745. With the bottom happening on Tuesday.
  6. Looking at from a different perspective, one could say that Nifty is rangebound from Next week till Mid March.


Back For Good

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  1. Good call writing volume at 8900 and 9000 Strikes. Similarly good put writing volumes at 8300. 8500 Strike Puts are being considered as risky, already! But then there are daredevils who are writing 8400 puts just to prove their man(or woman)hood, even though IV at 8400 is lower than 8300, but people in the market are not out to make sense...
  2. US Dollar is rangebound between 61.40 and 62.00 levels. It's what we could label as trading flat.
  3. PCR has again slipped to 0.78, which suggests, that CE writing has come into vogue. The Sentiment is clearly bearish at this stage.
  4. VIX vaporub, I am sorry, the Volatility Index VIX, continues to soar above the sky, and there is no chance of it's coming down in next two three days.
  5. The Futures OI Data suggests, that people are afraid of opening fresh short positions at current levels. There might be couple of Mr Nuksaanwala, who might be buying so prematurely, I guess.
  6. The Breadth Indicators are going to get Oversold in next couple of trading sessions. The Mombatti (Candlestick) Analysts could look for a single mombatti reversal pattern.
  7. The 34 DMA is at 8485. Nifty would want to attract it above 8531. In order to accomplish that it needs to close in the Q3 of it's true ranges. No big task, as most FIIs are sleeping/clueless about Nifty's movements.
  8. The RSI is at it's median score. SO it doesn't want to participate in anything along with FIIs, or wait a minute, OMG, could FIIs be so smart as to be watching RSI??? I can't believe this! The Smoothed RSI (5) using Inverse Fischer Transform has reached 1. The RSI(5) itself at 30, and thereby formed a reverse bullish divergence. I am straining very hard to hear of any sounds of thousands bulls charging, but all I hear is a the sound of vehicles passing by. Maybe Bulls would attack in a most ruthless manner known to speculationkind. Who knows?
  9. The Action Minutes are 9:55, 12:05 and 14:25. The Channel line support is at 8619.65. A breach of these levels would signal panic in the market.
  10. The 9th 10th and 11th are all action dates. Expect a lot of action on these dates. And perhaps a bottom would be formed on Tuesday or Wednesday. Nifty on Monday is likely to open flat to negative and chew out all the supports between 8620 and 8640. Or it might even gap down below this price zone. But initial panic could invite fence-sitters into buying quality stuff at throwaway prices which might retard the downtrend. My target for 8531 Nifty spot is intact. But we might not get it till Tuesday. Watch out for this space as I read Nifty's action bar by bar only on Adavanced-Charts.blogspot.in. Ding Dong.
  • Price Action: On Fri 06 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8696.85 ( -37 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8726.2 ( -113 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8645.55 ( -39 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8661.05 ( -51 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 176,554,075 ( -1% Lower than last trading session, and about -0.5% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -1.64% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 29.35 Points, and the body was equal to 35.8 and lower shadow was equal to 15.5
  • Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8704. The RSI (14) is at 53.8 Dn by 3.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -36 Dn by 5.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 1.4 a change of -6 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 1.4
  • Trend: The ADX (14) is at 28.6 Dn by 0.4 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.49 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8724; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8715; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8485; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8448; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7877. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  • Market Breadth: As on Fri 06 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.3, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.42. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -79.84, which is considered as 0
  • Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8570, Over Sold at 8616 the mean is at 8725, Over Bought at 8834 and Extremely Over Bought at 8879
  • Volumes: On Friday 06 Feb 2015 Volume was 176,554,075 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 227,300,000. The MFI reading was 61 while previously it was 67.3. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  • Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently SELL ON BOUNCES
  • Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 06 Feb 2015 was 25,780,925 while previously it was 25,624,600 a change of 0.61% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 10.68% while previously it was 7.88% while the change in Open Interest was 0.52% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.85% while previously it was 8.38% while the change in Open Interest was 3.45% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  • Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 06 Feb 2015 was 88,049,300 while previously it was 85,489,900 a change of 2.99%
  • The daily VIX closed at 20.69, while previous close was 20.62, a change of 0.34% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 17 to 11
  • The Index PCR is 0.78 while yesterday it was 0.91 a change of -0.13 or -14.28 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.81 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go DOWN in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 5,866,875 a change of 15% and IV of 17.04 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
  • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 3,676,025 a change of 12% and IV of 17.7 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.7.
  • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 5,866,875 a change of 15% and IV of 17.04 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
  • Highest IV in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 53,250 a change of 0% and IV of 73.11 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 14.6.
  • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,068,700 a change of 3% and IV of 18.7 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.8.
  • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 3,018,925 a change of 13% and IV of 19.96 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 8.5.
  • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8400 with Open Interest at 2,545,750 a change of 17% and IV of 19.32 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 4.6.
  • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 14,050 a change of -1% and IV of 46.25 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.6.
  • USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 61.7363 and it Lost against the INR by about -0.1385 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.1% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,203,574. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.6574



Thursday, February 5, 2015

Arrested Development

First of all the opening few lines from last three posts to create context:
  1. Monday: The day ended with Nifty lacking in directional momentum. There is no fresh buying frenzy to signal re-continuation of the uptrend, and there is no fresh offloading to push Nifty Index down. However, once RBI declares it's policy measures tomorrow, Nifty could turn weaker. Turning weaker means Nifty might finally manage to break the 8745 Support and test 8709 level. But if at any stage Nifty crossed 8861, it'd turn singularly bullish. So Neutral range is 8745 to 8861. Below 8745 it'd be weak and above 8861 it'd be strong. Tomorrow, that is 3rd Feb 2015, we have several intraday turning times for some reason! They are 09:25, 10:55, 12:20, 13:45, 15:10. All times (± 5 minutes) Obviously it'd be a very volatile session. I am not expecting a groundbreaking announcement from RBI tomorrow. Rest, God Knows Best. Don't buy options unless you are very sure of the direction -- VIX is high, and would not come down tomorrow.
  2. Tuesday : Pretty much on the expected lines, Nifty broke the support at 8745, but managed to close above the 8 DEMA of lows, which is generally considered a trend defining point on closing basis, and which is at 8745! The bias is definitely negative at this stage, but it's expected that Nifty would begin to gradually form some kind of a bottom/sideways pattern going forward from tomorrow. Below 8745 the minor supports are at 8709, 8679, and a strong support at 8637. While 8531 seems to be the final target of this correction. This view is now gradually being seconded by the Options OI. My final target of 9117 is intact. FIIs are slowly getting in the downdraft mood as reflected in the sentiment index. Intraday turning times are 9:25, 11:05, 12:40 and 14:15. (± 5 mins).
  3. Wednesday: he day churned out as expected. There wasn't much movement intraday, except for the last half hour. This indicates onset of consolidation. The volumes were lower than expectations, owing to very low volatilitlity for most part of the day. Interesting outcomes for the day were call unwinding at 9000 and moving to 9200, in expectation of 9117. There was brisk call writing for 8800 which was bit surprising. Another surprise was rapid 8700 PE build up. It looks aggressive Call writers aren't expecting 8679 to 8829 range to be broken tomorrow. Another green pasture that emerged in Put Writers View was 8300 Puts. Good volumes were recorded for this strike. Put to Call Ratio has bounced from unusually low level of 78 to 84, which suggests more puts being introduced into the system. The most unsual activity was centered around 8300 Strike. So brisk put writing below 8500 has improved the PCR ratio for the day. Now tomorrow is an important day, and I expect high to very high volatility tomorrow. It is entirley possible that Nifty might bounce violently, from Sub 8700, if it goes there. Nifty has formed a downsloping wedge in intraday charts, if it opens in red, then most likely it might not go below the minor support of 8679, and bounce in an extremely violent manner towards 8829. But if Nifty opens above 8780 the wedge view would be invalidated. So try to play on the long sides. Thank You.
  4. Thursday: The day turned out exactly as expected. "Nifty has formed a downsloping wedge in intraday charts, if it opens in red, then most likely it might not go below the minor support of 8679, and bounce in an extremely violent manner towards 8829." And from there it re-continued it's journey towards our Pivot of 8637. We are basically looking at these Pivots: 8537 - 8637 - 8745 - 8861. We believe that since Nifty is doing a complex 'abc' correction whose target could be sub 20 EMA, which is at 8655 today. But if Nifty slips below 8637 and closes below this level, then a final test of 8537 - 8531 would be the bottom after which Nifty would rise again and test 9117.
    So far so good. If my perspective is correct, then Nifty is in the "c" sub-minuette wave of this correction. Which is generally more violent then preceeding waves in an 'abc' pattern. And below 8655, that is the 20 EMA Nifty would be a good buy for targets already mentioned.
    Now today when Nifty rose above 8800, the CE Writers had panicked and ran for cover, but by the end of the day they were relieved (obviously) of their anxiety. In fact, now the put writers have shifted to 8300 Strike to safeguard themselves against any sudden onslaught. The Index PCR ratio has been improving for past two sessions, after hitting absymally low of 0.78 which indicates Put Writing (8300)

    The RSI FII Sentiment Index has turned around after hitting 60, already in a proces of forming a failure swing, which indicates their bearish outlook of the market. The HPI indicates some sharp correction ahead. McClellan Oscillator is staying below it's Signal Line which indicates lack of optimism in the market participants. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicates a range of 8840 (Tenkan Sen) and 8531 (Kijun Sen). The +DI is still above main ADX line, which signifies dormant bullishness. And RSI is getting closer to it's median at 54, which should lie close to 8637!
    Tomorrow, I am expecting a small range of about 75 -80 points, and Nifty would likley be supported somewhere between 8655 (20 DEMA) and 8679. While some short covering towards the end might make the day flat with the open or Thursday's close. IN candlstick terms, tomorrow we could have a doji or malformed spinning top. So trade right and Enjoy.
  • Price Action: On Thu 05 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8733.1 ( -57 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8838.45 ( 45 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8683.65 ( -21 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8711.7 ( -12 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 179,008,853 ( -11% Lower than last trading session, and about 0.8% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 2.68% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 105.35 Points, and the body was equal to 21.4 and lower shadow was equal to 28.05
  • Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8723. The RSI (14) is at 57.6 Dn by 0.9 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.5 Dn by 1.2 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 7.5 a change of -3.7 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 7.5
  • Trend: The ADX (14) is at 29.1 Up by 0 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.5 Up by 0.02 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8756; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8724; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8470; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8444; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7868. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  • Market Breadth: As on Thu 05 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.42, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.76. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -49.11, which is considered as Normal
  • Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8599, Over Sold at 8645 the mean is at 8756, Over Bought at 8868 and Extremely Over Bought at 8914
  • Volumes: On Thursday 05 Feb 2015 Volume was 179,008,853 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 236,900,000. The MFI reading was 67.3 while previously it was 67.9. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  • Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently SELL ON BOUNCES
  • Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 05 Feb 2015 was 25,624,600 while previously it was 26,019,950 a change of -1.52% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 7.88% while previously it was 9.98% while the change in Open Interest was -1.77% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 8.38% while previously it was 9.39% while the change in Open Interest was 7.16% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  • Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 05 Feb 2015 was 85,489,900 while previously it was 83,642,275 a change of 2.21%
  • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 5,082,500 a change of -5% and IV of 16.35 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.6.
  • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9200 with Open Interest at 3,301,700 a change of -2% and IV of 16.86 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.8.
  • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 5,082,500 a change of -5% and IV of 16.35 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.6.
  • Highest IV in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 18,875 a change of -4% and IV of 75.92 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 82.9.
  • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 2,977,375 a change of -0% and IV of 20.77 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
  • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 2,722,825 a change of 7% and IV of 20.01 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
  • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 2,678,650 a change of 30% and IV of 21.7 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 16.1.
  • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 14,125 a change of -9% and IV of 46.37 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 31.4.
  • The Index PCR is 0.91 while yesterday it was 0.84 a change of 0.07 or 8.33 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.82 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go DOWN in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  • The daily VIX closed at 20.62, while previous close was 20.05, a change of 2.82% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 17 to 11
  • USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 61.8748 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.1948 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 6.1% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,201,481. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.6463