Sunday, December 27, 2015

Weekly Outlook

  1. This week starts on a Negative Sentiment;
  2. Nifty is likely to retest sub 7800 levels;
  3. It is likely to temporarily stabilize by Thursday;
  4. Nifty's a good buy below 7750;
  5. It awaits a positive trigger
  6. Investors could start accumulating at lower levels
  7. Subscribe to Saturnus Market Forecasting Newsletter. Click Here

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Weekly Outlook

  1. The week is likely to start with the bearish sentiment;
  2. This sentiment is likely to change by Wednesday to neutral/mixed
  3. Below 7642 Nifty is a good buy for a bounce of minimum 150 - 300 points;
  4. Don't see Nifty breaking 8337 soon;
  5. Nifty awaits a positive trigger
  6. There are more than 3 swings expected in the month of December 2015;
  7. Investors could start accumulating at lower levels

Thursday, December 17, 2015

The Delphinus Trading Program

Offers are invited for participation into The Delphinus Trading Program, whose details are as follows:

  1. It is open for anyone, including but not restricted to:
    • Individuals
    • Corporations, Companies and Organizations
  2. The Minimum capital or Corpus Fund to be invested is as follows:
  3. Capital Requirements
    ParticipantMinimum Capital
    Individual25 Lacs
    Associations/Partnerships/Companies
    (Other than the Sovereign States)
    1 Crore
    Others100 Crores

  4. The Profit Sharing Formula would be as follows:
  5. Profit Shares
    ParticipantProfit Sharing
    Individual25%
    Associations/Partnerships/Companies
    (Other than the Sovereign States)
    15%
    Others5%

  6. Period of Settlement would be as follows
  7. Settlement Cycle
    ParticipantSettlement
    IndividualMonthly
    Associations/Partnerships/Companies
    (Other than the Sovereign States)
    BiWeekly
    OthersWeekly

  8. The Advance Fee Schedule is as follows:
  9. Settlement Cycle
    ParticipantAdvance Fee
    Individual1.5 Lacs
    Associations/Partnerships/Companies
    (Other than the Sovereign States)
    5.0 Lacs
    Others10 Lacs
  10. The Delphinus Trading Program is open for everyone irrespective of the domiciliary status of the participant.
  11. Interested parties could e-mail me at rainbows2nite@yahoo.co.in for further discussions and negotiations

Monday, December 7, 2015

Dream of the Alchemist

  1. This week the Bias is likely to change from bearish to bullish for a bounce;
  2. A break above 7900 could see Nifty cruising towards 8010;
  3. But as long as it is below 8035, it could fall below 7750 or recent lows;
  4. Below 7673 Nifty is a good buy for a bounce of minimum 150 - 300 points;
  5. Don't see Nifty breaking 8337 before new year;
  6. Till Dec 17th, 2015, Nifty is likely to remain volatile and even range-bound;
  7. There are more than 3 swings expected in the month of December 2015;
  8. There is a good chance that Nifty might bottom out before Dec 17, 2015;
  9. Investors could elect to stay away from the market till Dec 17, 2015

Sunday, November 29, 2015

The Weekly Outlook:

  1. This coming week the Bias is likely to remain bearish;
  2. A break above 7960 could see Nifty cruising towards 8010;
  3. But as long as it is below 8035, it could fall below 7750 or recent lows;
  4. Below 7673 Nifty is a good buy for a bounce of minimum 150 - 300 points;
  5. Don't see Nifty breaking 8337 before new year;
  6. Till Dec 17th, 2015, Nifty is likely to remain volatile and even range-bound;
  7. There are more than 3 swings expected in the month of December 2015;
  8. There is a good chance that Nifty might bottom out before Dec 17, 2015;
  9. Investors could elect to stay away from the market

Sunday, November 22, 2015

The Weekly Outlook:

  1. This coming week the Bias is likely to remain bearish;
  2. A break above 7920 could see Nifty cruising towards 8010;
  3. But as long as it is below 8035, it could fall below 7750 or recent lows;
  4. Below 7673 Nifty is a good buy for a bounce of 100 - 200 points;
  5. Don't see Nifty breaking 8337 before new year;
  6. Till Dec 17th, 2015, Nifty is likely to remain volatile and even range-bound;
  7. There is a good chance that Nifty might bottom out before Dec 17, 2015;

Sunday, November 15, 2015

The Weekly Outlook:

  1. The Coming Week begins with a bearish sentiment;
  2. The rising Inflation could further enhance negative sentiment;
  3. From Monday Nov 16th, 2015 till Thursday, Dec 17th, 2015, Nifty is likely to remain volatile and even range-bound;
  4. It is widely believed that FOMC would increase interest rates in the Dec 17th, 2015 meeting;
  5. This will help Nifty to bottom out "about or before" that date;
  6. Some short covering could happen on Tuesday afternoon or/and Wednesday.
  7. This is the last downturn before the dominant trend asserts itself;

Monday, November 9, 2015

Diwali Sale 15% off: Loot lo offer

  1. Diwali Sale arrives in Stock market again, like last year.
  2. No invite/pre booking required
  3. Buy with both hands as much as you can, If Nifty slips below 7800 like last year
  4. Nifty can even quote below 7500. The sale might continue for the entire week
  5. Same levels - same season - same target - minimum 400 points from the low
  6. Holding Time: Till Dec 25
  7. Twinkle Twinkle little Star, how I wonder what you are

Sunday, November 1, 2015

The Weekly Outlook

  1. Nifty is forming a bullish pattern in Long Term Charts, indicating a possible target of 10,200;
  2. For Investors, Nifty reamins a buy on dips below 8100/8000;
  3. For Traders, Nifty has displayed weakness ahead of some crucial news;
  4. It can go all the way down to 7850 if 8000 is breached;
  5. On the other hand 8445, remains an unfulfilled short term target;
  6. Nifty is likely to scare the bulls out of their long positions;
  7. The Bias for the week is Neutral;
  8. 8130 ± 150 is an important range for this week;
  9. Bullish above 8280; bearish below 7980; neutral to rangebound in between
  10. Nifty could be under pressure Thursday afternoon onwards;


Monday, October 26, 2015

Weeky Outlook

  1. Once past 8270, next test is 8322 and then 8445
  2. Nifty could get a jolt around 8392
  3. The Bias for the coming week is Mildly Bullish
  4. Nifty is slowly limping towards 8445.
  5. It could reach there on or before Nov 9th, 2015
  6. A correction towards 8147, will become due after Tuesday.
  7. Monday: The day would open positive, with some profit booking towards the final hour; green close
  8. Tuesday: The high of the Week could happen in the post lunch session around 8378
  9. Wednesday:The Bias could be negative for the day, and could see red closing
  10. Thursday: If a negative open; then for most part it is expected to be stuck in a very small range; red closing
  11. Friday: If a positive open then closing in green


Sunday, October 18, 2015

The Inheritor of Winds and The Fog

  1. Nifty could face stiff resistance around 8270
  2. Once past 8270, next test is 8322 and then 8445.
  3. The Bias for the coming week is mildly BEARISH
  4. Monday could see a red close.
  5. Tuesday could see some recovery off the lows in the later half
  6. Wednesday is expected to remain volatile
  7. A negative open on Friday could see a spike down towards 8106 and below
  8. Shorts could be tried keeping SL of 8340

N.B. New subscriptions for Nov - Dec Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Dec onwards.



Sunday, October 11, 2015

Bright Lights and Back Alleys

Let's recap some of the highlights of previous posts

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • If Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  • In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  • Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.
  • The test would be 8144. A break of 8144 could confirm an intermediate to long term bottom is in place at 7539.
  • If Nifty foes Below 7700, anything selling on NSE would be a good buy.
  • FIIs are keenly tracking international markets
  • Anyway, if Nifty goes below 7520, it will test 7175 and 6700 below that. Below 7100 all theories and principles would go for a toss
  • The Nifty could be probed for a long trade keeping 7520 as a stop. The target would be 8400 - 9400 - 10200
  • The world markets are not out of the woods as yet and so is Nifty, but buying below 7762 with 7520 as stop could continue to yield short term gains
  • A breakout above 8061 could see Nifty quickly test 8200 - 8237 levels.

And now the notes for this week

  1. Nifty could face stiff resistance around 8270
  2. Once past 8270, next test is 8322 and then 8445.
  3. Longs could be probed keeping 8095 as stop.
  4. The Bias for the coming week is mild to moderately bullish
  5. Looks like first the weekly low would be established, say on Tuesday.
  6. Thanks for all the kind words and appreciation, coming through mail and social media. I feel deeply honored.

N.B. New subscriptions for Nov - Dec Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Dec onwards.



Sunday, October 4, 2015

Sopdet

Let's recap some of the highlights of previous posts

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • If Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  • In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  • Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.
  • The test would be 8144. A break of 8144 could confirm an intermediate to long term bottom is in place at 7539.
  • If Nifty foes Below 7700, anything selling on NSE would be a good buy.
  • FIIs are keenly tracking international markets
  • Anyway, if Nifty goes below 7520, it will test 7175 and 6700 below that. Below 7100 all theories and principles would go for a toss
  • The Nifty could be probed for a long trade keeping 7520 as a stop. The target would be 8400 - 9400 - 10200
  • The world markets are not out of the woods as yet and so is Nifty, but buying below 7762 with 7520 as stop could continue to yield short term gains

And now the notes for this week

  1. A breakout above 8061 could see Nifty quickly test 8200 - 8237 levels.
  2. Long trades could be probed keeping 7867 as Stop Loss
  3. The Outlook for the week is Volatile and no clarity about the Bias.

N.B. New subscriptions for Oct - Nov Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Nov - Dec Cycle.



Saturday, September 26, 2015

The Young Love

Let's recap some of the highlights of previous posts

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • If Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  • In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  • Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.
  • The test would be 8144. A break of 8144 could confirm an intermediate to long term bottom is in place at 7539.
  • If Nifty foes Below 7700, anything selling on NSE would be a good buy.
  • FIIs are keenly tracking international markets

And now the notes for this week

  1. Jen Yellen is America's answer to Raul Gandhi; no wonder that in the middle of an important election campaign, he's visiting the US; probably to mentor her further
  2. Tinkering with Interest Rates is no panacea for Economic Mismanagement or lack of ideas
  3. Anyway, if Nifty goes below 7520, it will test 7175 and 6700 below that. Below 7100 all theories and principles would go for a toss
  4. The Nifty could be probed for a long trade keeping 7520 as a stop. The target would be 8400 - 9400 - 10200
  5. The world markets are not out of the woods as yet and so is Nifty, but buying below 7762 with 7520 as stop could continue to yield short term gains
  6. The Outlook for the week is rangebound with a positive bias towards the later part of the week

N.B. New subscriptions for Oct - Nov Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Nov - Dec Cycle.



Sunday, September 20, 2015

The Paradigm of Abstract

Let's recap some of the highlights of previous posts

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • If Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  • In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  • Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.

And now the notes for this week

  1. Apparently, Nifty along with the major world indices, haven't bottomed out yet.
  2. The test would be 8144. A break of 8144 could confirm an intermediate to long term bottom is in place at 7539.
  3. If Nifty foes Below 7700, anything selling on NSE would be a good buy.
  4. FIIs are keenly tracking international markets
  5. EWP: Nifty seems to have finished the 3rd of the Wave "C".

N.B. New subscriptions for Oct - Nov Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Nov - Dec Cycle.



Sunday, September 13, 2015

The Weekly Outlook

Let's recap the important points till now

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level(i,e, below 8000).
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely
  • Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810

And now the notes for this week

  1. This is the week that would help markets find the bottom for short to intermediate term.
  2. The FOMC is likely to raise interest rates by 25 bps, to which world markets could react sharply
  3. In the current quarter, Nifty's price distribution appears to be bimodal ("double distribution")
  4. Although the recent low looks good on long term charts, but in case FOMC raises interest rates then, a retest of 7600 on Friday, Sep 18, 2015 can't be ruled out
  5. Nifty appears to be finding balance around 7780 - 7810, any sharp reaction on either side, would bring Nifty back to these levels, in the following weeks.

N.B. New subscriptions for Oct - Nov Cycle are closed; can pre-book for Nov - Dec Cycle.



Sunday, September 6, 2015

The Big Boss

Let's recap the important points till now

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level.
  • A breakout above 8670 with good volumes should see Nifty carrying all the way till 9019; on the other hand if 8305 is breached then it should go all the way till 7980;
  • The outlook for the Swing is that present state of confusion should be resolved by End of the Aug-F&O-Series
  • Nifty could bounce with a vengeance as long as it trades above 7800.
  • Minimum upside target for the following bounce would be 8383 on the high
  • The Critical HVN is at 8445, which is now a strong resistance; and 8423 is it's entry door
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve
  • Nifty made a low 7667, and bounced from there, a bounce that has been sluggish so far. And, so far this bounce looks corrective in nature
  • Nifty has been unable to find value below 8485; it may return to that level in a snap
  • Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely

And now the notes for this week

  1. Nobody would question the Governor of the Central Bank if on Monday of a certain week, he states that the Economic Turbulence in China would have no effect on our economy, while on the Saturday of the same week, he states that the country is not immune to the repercussions of Chinese Economic Problems.
  2. Had I displayed an exuberance of a similar level, a few dozen, SEBI registered technical analysts, and forums of all colours would have been filled by criticism, as if I am the Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the year is 2010, and while munching some tasty sandwiches, on CNBC lunch hour, I casually remark that I am short, which causes a flash crash forcing a few hundred bankruptcies.
  3. Anyway, people would be people, but if Nifty registers a weekly close below 7590, would go in for a tailspin. Currently the last support is 7537.
  4. The Bias for the coming week is also negative and the bears may run out of breath by Wednesday.
  5. Any bounce would at least carry till 7780 - 7810
  6. That's it, enjoy your sandwiches, but don't forget to spread some extra mayonnaise on them



Sunday, August 30, 2015

The Weekly Outlook

Let's recap the important points till now

  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level.
  • A breakout above 8670 with good volumes should see Nifty carrying all the way till 9019; on the other hand if 8305 is breached then it should go all the way till 7980;
  • The outlook for the Swing is that present state of confusion should be resolved by End of the Aug-F&O-Series
  • Nifty could bounce with a vengeance as long as it trades above 7800.
  • Minimum upside target for the following bounce would be 8383 on the high
  • The Critical HVN is at 8445, which is now a strong resistance; and 8423 is it's entry door
  • Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve

Now the notes for this week

  1. Nifty made a low 7667, and bounced from there, a bounce that has been sluggish so far
  2. And, so far this bounce looks corrective in nature
  3. As long as Nifty trades above 7920, it might continue to strive for 8383, otherwise it might fall down to retest the supports below 7833.
  4. Nifty has been unable to find value below 8485; it may return to that level in a snap
  5. Overall World markets are under pressure, but a retest of recent lows can't be ruled out completely (TYPO:CORRECTED)

Monday, August 24, 2015

China in Your Hand

I had tweeted this a few days back, and there is no change in views



Sunday, August 23, 2015

Stereo Love

Let's recap the Previous Week's Post

  • Nifty has tested the 8315 - 8340 three times.
  • It has also tested 8620 - 8660 twice.
  • As long as 8305 doesn't break Nifty is Bullish, and the Bias remains positive.
  • As long as 8485 doesn't break this week, Nifty will attempt a closing above 8588.
  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level.
  • A breakout above 8670 with good volumes should see Nifty carrying all the way till 9019; on the other hand if 8305 is breached then it should go all the way till 7980;
  • The general outlook for the week is rangebound with a slight negative bias, the range being 8340 - 8670 with value around 8480 to 8530
  • The outlook for the Swing is that present state of confusion should be resolved by End of the Aug-F&O-Series
  • The Current Elliot Wave Count is "B" from the top of 9119.

To the aforementioned outlook, I am only adding following notes this week

  1. Nifty could bounce with a vengeance as long as it trades above 7800.
  2. Minimum upside target for the following bounce would be 8383 on the high
  3. Maximum upside target for the following bounce would be 9019 on the high
  4. The Critical HVN is at 8445, which is now a strong resistance; and 8423 is it's entry door
  5. Nifty is Bracketing in the Intermediate Term, as evidenced by Composite Overlay Demand Curve


Sunday, August 16, 2015

The Weekly Outlook

  • Nifty has tested the 8315 - 8340 three times.
  • It has also tested 8620 - 8660 twice.
  • As long as 8305 doesn't break Nifty is Bullish, and the Bias remains positive.
  • As long as 8485 doesn't break this week, Nifty will attempt a closing above 8588.
  • The Fundamentals are settling down now, so any dip below 8000 would be a buying opportunity for Investors. One could also look at quality midcaps below that level.
  • A breakout above 8670 with good volumes should see Nifty carrying all the way till 9019; on the other hand if 8305 is breached then it should go all the way till 7980;
  • The general outlook for the week is rangebound with a slight negative bias, the range being 8340 - 8670 with value around 8480 to 8530
  • The outlook for the Swing is that present state of confusion should be resolved by End of the Aug-F&O-Series
  • The Current Elliot Wave Count is "B" from the top of 9119.


Friday, June 19, 2015

Saturnus Market Forecasting Newsletter

Saturnus Market Forecasting Newsletter
  1. With Great Pleasure, I have the honor to introduce Saturnus Market Forecasting Newsletter.
  2. The Free Trial (Saturnus Trading Carnival) would begin from 26th June and would end on 17th July, God Willing. Following which the service would be available at a very small fee of just 2499 INR per month, payable in advance.
  3. This is an introductory offer, fees could be raised from time to time. The fees would be non refundable
  4. All Notifications/Updates/Alerts would be sent through e-mail, SMS, and Skype, apart from being published on the Saturnus Blog - under the paid version.
  5. The Newsletter would publish my own trades, which would include Day Trading ideas, and Swing Trading ideas
  6. There are only 20 Subscriptions on the offer. The subscriptions shall be awarded on the first come first served basis.
  7. Subscriptions for the month starting from 20th July till 19th August 2015, are now open
  8. The Banking Details could be found by clicking HERE
  9. More details to follow. Please also check the Services Page HERE
  10. God Willing. Thanks for your patience


Saturday, April 25, 2015

Rhombus

  • From now onwards, I would update the blog from swing to swing rather than a fixed period of time, viz., daily or weekly. It appears to be a more efficient solution for my Mercurial disposition!
  • The last swing started from 8844 (forecast:8850) for the forecast level of 8144.
  • If in case it breaches 8144 then the next level is 8008.
  • Preliminary Target for Next Swing would be for 8700.
  • So from here it might do 8305 to 8531-8557 to 8144-8008 to 8700. Will meet if anything new comes up. Enjoy!



  • Addendum
    • Nifty is likely to reach 8144-8008 on or before Fri, May, 08, 2015.
    • Preliminary Time Projections for Reaching 8700 would be on or before June, 12, 2015. (Edited)





Sunday, April 12, 2015

The Dark Side of the Moon

    First a Recap:

    1. As expected, Nifty is going down slowly and has almost reached our first target of 8531 falling from 9119.
    2. If Nifty breaches 8530 then our next and final Target is 8270 corresponding with 17,600 in Bank Nifty
    3. The expected range is 8440 to 8737, with the high coming first.
    4. A dead cat bounce is expected from around 8520 ± 25
    5. For Bank Nifty the expected weekly range is 18,350 to 18,880

  • Nifty did find support at 8269, and jumped back to test our next target 8850, as discussed on FB page; and Bank Nifty found support at 17719 thereby missing our target given at 19000, by 119 points.
  • Apparently Nifty is doing a zigzag in it's "B" Wave at the Sub-Minuet Degree
  • There are Multiple Pivot Clusters between 8861 and 8966, which are likely to arrest the current rise
  • On Weekly Charts the Make-or-Break Cluster is 8578 to 8637. A breach of the same should signify the re continuation of Down-Trend with an initial target of 8144.
  • Banking and IT continue to be very weak in the charts. The weakness in IT seems to be due to the fact, and unbelievably so, that Dollar seems to be topping out! Uncle Sam seems to be unwell.
  • Bank Nifty might top out Close to 19100 ± 100 points.
  • I am deliberately leaving out range guidance this week, owing to a study conflict, would resume in coming weeks.


Sunday, March 22, 2015

Now that Spring is in the Air...

  • As expected, Nifty is going down slowly and has almost reached our first target of 8531 falling from 9119.
  • If Nifty breaches 8530 then our next and final Target is 8270 corresponding with 17,600 in Bank Nifty
  • The expected range is 8440 to 8737, with the high coming first.
  • A dead cat bounce is expected from around 8520 ± 25
  • For Bank Nifty the expected weekly range is 18,350 to 18,880


Sunday, March 15, 2015

Googly

z
  • RecapTo summarise, Nifty is expected to touch 9037 odd levels before continuing down towards 8757 and lower levels.
  • Nifty failed to bounce towards 90XX levels, and continued it's tail spin towards 85XX levels, thereby indicating weakness on the previous Monday itself, by breaking below 8757 in first few hours of trading
  • This week the expected range for Nifty is 8530 to 8850
  • There is a confluence of important supports around 8550 ± 30 points, and Nifty is likley to find support in this potential reversal zone. Below this zone we could talk only in terms of probable support zones and not in terms of Reversal Zone
  • Ideal scenario would be Nifty finds support at 8537 on Monday, 16th March 2015 after 10:30 AM IST. And bounces to retest 8675, 8860 levels, in next two days. The major Pivot for the Week should be 8637.
  • Bank Nifty is expected to take Support at 18,3XX level, and could bounce to test 19000
  • Nifty is still in an uptrend, but undergoing consolidation, between 7500 to 9100 levels for a final target of 12,100 to 13,000 within an year or so.


Sunday, March 8, 2015

Vanishing Point

z
  • Recap
    • Broadly Nifty could continue to be rangebound till RBI publishes it's policy review, with a possibility of a spike towards 9117 happening anytime from now till the announcement
    • Nifty should mark a top about 9117, by 13 March 2015. Probably it'd do that earlier than by last date.
    • The expected range for the week is 8800 to 9050.
    • The Festival of Holi in 2015 is an important turning date. The weekly high is likely to be registered by Tuesday
  • Nifty formed the weekly high on Wednesday Morning due to RBIs "rate cut" announcement.
  • Since Rate Cut was less than market expectation, Nifty formed a top at 9119, 2 points above our target.
  • After the effect of RBI announcement was over, and Nifty had fulfilled it's expected target, it fell down some 200 points on the same day.
  • Looking at coming week, Nifty is expected to trade in a range of 9037 to 8757.
  • The probable path it might take could be that it might slowly move towards 9037, while still trading mainly in 8893 to 8997.
  • Then topping around 9016 to 9062, it might quickly fall down towards 8757.
  • Timewise, there are two paths Nifty could take viz., (a) Reach 9037 on Monday itself or (b)Reach 9037 on Thursday.
  • Under (a) above Nifty reaches 9037 odd levels by Monday EOD then falls till Thursday EOD towards 8757 and stages a sharp bounce afterwards.
  • Under (b) above Nifty keeps drifting towards 9037 ever so slowly, till Thursday, and then falls sharply towards 8757 by Friday EOD
  • To summarise, Nifty is expected to touch 9037 odd levels before continuing down towards 8757 and lower levels.


Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Cherish

z

  • Nifty achieved 9117 and fell down some two hundred points from there
  • For 5th March 2015 - Nifty is likely to trade between 8949 and 8823 levels. The Bias is negative, but outlook is primarily rangebound
  1. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8826. The RSI (14) is at 59.8 Dn by 5.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.2 Dn by 28 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 86.3 a change of -13.2 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.5
  2. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.5 Up by 1.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.28 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  3. Price Action: On Wed 04 Mar 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 9109.15 ( 146 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 9119.2 ( 110 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8893.95 ( -32 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8922.65 ( -74 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 256,060,375 ( 40% Higher than last trading session, and about 33.3% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 169.91% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 10.05 Points, and the body was equal to 186.5 and lower shadow was equal to 28.7
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8913; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8850; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8766; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8603; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 8060. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 04 Mar 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.39, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.72. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -5.38, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8743, Over Sold at 8793 the mean is at 8914, Over Bought at 9035 and Extremely Over Bought at 9085
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 Volume was 256,060,375 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 197,000,000. The MFI reading was 74 while previously it was 73.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 was 28,639,700 while previously it was 29,457,600 a change of -2.78% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 6.25% while previously it was 10.30% while the change in Open Interest was -3.31% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 30-Apr-2015 was 7.25% while previously it was 8.73% while the change in Open Interest was 8.65% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 was 81,135,600 while previously it was 79,420,575 a change of 2.16%
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 61.8543 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0156 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -3.9% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,90,540. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.041


Sunday, March 1, 2015

Talking Back to the Night

  • Recap of last three weekly posts:
  • Nifty would most probably restart it's journey for 9117 after finding a bottom between 8445 and 8537. However there is a confluence of many lines around 8560, so that could play a pivotal role both as a support and a resistance
  • It should reach 9117 before Budget 2015, due for 28 Feb 2015.
  • From now till Budget, no weekly closing is likely to exceed 8861. So the high of 9117, would be an intra week climax, or a Monday High.
  • This week Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 8445 to 8745. With the bottom happening on Tuesday.
  • Looking at from a different perspective, one could say that Nifty is rangebound from Next week till Mid March.
  • There is a confluence of pivots between 8840 and 8930, both static and dynamic, and Nifty's current bounce from 8470, is likely to meet stiff resistance here.
  • If Nifty fails to clear the 8930 level by Wednesday end of the day (Tuesday being a Holiday), it might pull back a bit, but unlikely to go below 8637.
  • The range for Nifty this week seems to be 8637 to 8960
  • After hitting the bottom at 8470, Nifty has not been able to move past 8913. Although the pullback towards 8745 is still pending.
  • Nifty's range till this Friday is expected to be 8745 to 8985.
  • Market is expecting a rate cut of 50 basis points by RBI in early March
  • Broadly Nifty could continue to be rangebound till RBI publishes it's policy review, with a possibility of a spike towards 9117 happening anytime from now till the announcement
  • Budget 2015 is likely to be as per the market expectations. All the expectations and possible outcomes are likely to be factored into the prices by Friday 27th Feb EOD.
  • The Previous Post was all in Italics. Now for this week's outlook

  • Nifty marked a bottom at 8470 and then it went up was resisted at 8913 fell down to 8669 and rose back to test 8900.
  • Nifty should mark a top about 9117, by 13 March 2015. Probably it'd do that earlier than by last date.
  • The expected range for the week is 8800 to 9050.
  • The Festival of Holi in 2015 is an important turning date. The weekly high is likely to be registered by Tuesday


Thursday, February 26, 2015

Short Update

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  • Recap: Outlook for Wednesday: Nifty seems to be ready for a bounce towards 8872 and beyond. A close above 8900 would be singularly bullish
  • Nifty failed to bounce beyond the old resistance of 8840, and has finally come down to test 8628 - 8664 zone.
  • The first confirmation of a reversal would be a close above 8745
  • The 8628 - 8664 range is a potential reversal zone. Major Pivots below this zone are at 8565, 8531, 8470, and 8393
  • The target of 9117 would be negated if Nifty closed below 8470.


Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Joy (in my heart)

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  • Recap from last post on Friday:For Monday, 23 Feb 2015, Nifty is expected to continue in consolidation mode, with a visit to 8920 a distinct possibility.
  • Nifty opened at 8856 made a high of 8869 and then fell down to 8736. However Nifty Index Futures gapped up by about 100 points in all three series as compared with the gap up of mere 23 points in the Nifty Index. So the prediction in terms of Futures was correct. However there was no aberration in Call Options opening.
  • Options Data suggest across the board Call unwinding. On the other hand there was no interest in Put Writing also. This is basically a bullish picture, where bulls are confident and bears are waiting for a confirmation.
  • Futures Data suggest that there was short covering at lower levels followed by long additions in the March Series.
  • Outlook for Wednesday: Nifty seems to be ready for a bounce towards 8872 and beyond. A close above 8900 would be singularly bullish
  1. Price Action: On Tue 24 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8772.9 ( -84 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8800.5 ( -69 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8726.75 ( -10 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8762.1 ( 7 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 154,368,611 ( 7% Higher than last trading session, and about -12.3% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -55.99% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 27.6 Points, and the body was equal to 10.8 and lower shadow was equal to 35.35
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8741. The RSI (14) is at 54.8 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.8 Up by 0.9 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 29.6 a change of 6.4 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 23.2
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 21.9 Dn by 0.7 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.4 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8788; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8764; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8636; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8507; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7986. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Tue 24 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.59, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.55. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -19.29, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8636, Over Sold at 8680 the mean is at 8788, Over Bought at 8897 and Extremely Over Bought at 8941
  7. Volumes: On Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 Volume was 154,368,611 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 177,500,000. The MFI reading was 58.5 while previously it was 57.3. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 was 28,323,075 while previously it was 27,023,300 a change of 4.81% which is considered to be SIGNIFICANT The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 23.31% while previously it was -2.08% while the change in Open Interest was -23.15% which might suggest SHORTS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 8.73% while previously it was 8.16% while the change in Open Interest was 49.92% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 was 110,853,400 while previously it was 112,214,775 a change of -1.21%
    • The daily VIX closed at 21.55, while previous close was 21.63, a change of -0.38% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.74 while yesterday it was 0.79 a change of -0.05 or -6.32 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,088,450 a change of -8% and IV of 21.46 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.1.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 5,732,175 a change of -7% and IV of 19.46 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.2.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9100 with Open Interest at 3,290,750 a change of -20% and IV of 24.07 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 14.9.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 4,496,375 a change of 4% and IV of 17.6 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,431,625 a change of -0% and IV of 22.76 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 9000 with Open Interest at 1,129,425 a change of -34% and IV of - with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 47.4.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.2758 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.092 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 5.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 25,89,386. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.1561


Saturday, February 21, 2015

Thrifty Nifty

  • Recap of last two posts:
  • Feel a little rusty, writing a weekly outlook after such a lonnng time.
  • Nifty would most probably restart it's journey for 9117 after finding a bottom between 8445 and 8537. However there is a confluence of many lines around 8560, so that could play a pivotal role both as a support and a resistance
  • It should reach 9117 before Budget 2015, due for 28 Feb 2015.
  • From now till Budget, no weekly closing is likely to exceed 8861. So the high of 9117, would be an intra week climax, or a Monday High.
  • This week Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 8445 to 8745. With the bottom happening on Tuesday.
  • Looking at from a different perspective, one could say that Nifty is rangebound from Next week till Mid March.

  • Nifty after forming a short term bottom at 8470, onTuesday, 10th Feb 2015, began to rise swiftly. Now for this week's outlook.
  • There is a confluence of pivots between 8840 and 8930, both static and dynamic, and Nifty's current bounce from 8470, is likely to meet stiff resistance here.
  • If Nifty fails to clear the 8930 level by Wednesday end of the day (Tuesday being a Holiday), it might pull back a bit, but unlikely to go below 8637.
  • The range for Nifty this week seems to be 8637 to 8960

The Previous Post was all in Italics. Now for this week's outlook

  1. After hitting the bottom at 8470, Nifty has not been able to move past 8913. Although the pullback towards 8745 is still pending.
  2. Nifty's range till this Friday is expected to be 8745 to 8985.
  3. Market is expecting a rate cut of 50 basis points by RBI in early March
  4. Broadly Nifty could continue to be rangebound till RBI publishes it's policy review, with a possibility of a spike towards 9117 happening anytime from now till the announcement
  5. Budget 2015 is likely to be as per the market expectations. All the expectations and possible outcomes are likely to be factored into the prices by Friday 27th Feb EOD.


The Gallop of Epona

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  • Recap:Warning: Nifty is approaching the Climax of the rise from 8470, avoid carrying heavy positions overnight. Nifty would continue to inch up ever so slowly now.
  • Nifty opened up smartly at 8895.50 but failed to sustain higher levels around 8900, as evidenced by the fact that the day high was 8899.95, and after quickly registering the day low at 8816.30 traded sideways for most part of the day. The closing was nearer the day low, as has been noticed for past few sessions that closing happens near the day low or day high, but ineffectual factor, as far as the indication for probable direction is concerned.
  • The Stop Loss on closing basis for longs is 8745. However it'd be best advised that people holding long positions should limit their long exposure below 8790.
  • Nifty seems to be consolidating around 8861 for the magnum opus. The trend at intermediate degree is changing, but it continues to be bullish in the short term as long as Nifty doesn't close below 8745.
  • The RSI 14 is hanging around 60. RSI 5 is at 59. RSI 5 has formed a positive reversal within the last 5 bars. This might lead to a bounce towards 8930 odd levels, as long as 8790 is not breached.
  • The candlesticks that have formed in last two trading sessions carry bearish connotations. But they are within the range of the previous swing, so they need a confirmation, like breaking of 8790 on closing basis.
  • Although Nifty traded in red for most part of the day, and closed near the low of the day, the market breadth wasn't bad at all, indicating that there was not much selling pressure.
  • Volumes were above average, whichi suggests controlled distribution. It is to be expected since apparently Nifty is in the process of forming a medium term top at these levels.
  • The Futures data suggest long rollover to March Series. Whereas Options data suggest that 8800 +/- 20 points continue to be a good support in Feb Series, and 9000 +/- 20 points continue to be a strong resistance for the same series. To sum up the OI data Nifty is rangebound between these two levels.
  • For Monday, 23 Feb 2015, Nifty is expected to continue in consolidation mode, with a visit to 8920 a distinct possibility.
  1. Price Action: On Fri 20 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8895.5 ( 12 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8899.95 ( -14 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8816.3 ( 21 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8833.6 ( -62 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 203,714,864 ( -7% Lower than last trading session, and about 13.4% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 62.04% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 4.45 Points, and the body was equal to 61.9 and lower shadow was equal to 17.3
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8748. The RSI (14) is at 60.2 Dn by 5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -20.2 Dn by 8 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 88.7 a change of -10.9 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.6
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 23.3 Up by 0.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.4 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8824; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8766; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8614; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8489; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7966. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Fri 20 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.01, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.89. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 15.41, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8671, Over Sold at 8716 the mean is at 8825, Over Bought at 8934 and Extremely Over Bought at 8979
  7. Volumes: On Friday 20 Feb 2015 Volume was 203,714,864 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 187,800,000. The MFI reading was 55.7 while previously it was 54.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 20 Feb 2015 was 27,376,525 while previously it was 27,701,550 a change of -1.17% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 10.91% while previously it was 12.21% while the change in Open Interest was -7.78% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.19% while previously it was 9.06% while the change in Open Interest was 61.48% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 20 Feb 2015 was 108,943,650 while previously it was 105,495,400 a change of 3.27%
    • The daily VIX closed at 21.27, while previous close was 20.4, a change of 4.27% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.91 while yesterday it was 0.99 a change of -0.07 or -8.08 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.09 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,303,175 a change of 20% and IV of 15.88 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 5,403,575 a change of 17% and IV of 16.05 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,303,175 a change of 20% and IV of 15.88 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6600 with Open Interest at 219,125 a change of -10% and IV of 122.57 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 79.7.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 4,301,525 a change of -0% and IV of 16.36 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 3,894,375 a change of 4% and IV of 16.7 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.7.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8900 with Open Interest at 2,613,425 a change of -10% and IV of 15.55 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,800 a change of 3% and IV of 79.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 11.9.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.255 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.01 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.2% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,88,322. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0735


Thursday, February 19, 2015

Flameout

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  • Recap:Tomorrow, i.e., on Thursday, 19 Feb 2015, Nifty is likely to continue it's journey northwards, towards 8930, 8950 levels. But a close above 8861 is a must for Nifty to remain bullish.
  • Nifty opened gap up at 8883 then slipped to 8794.45 following which it made a smart recovery to register the day high at 8913.45 and closed at 8895.30. On the candlestick charts, the candle that formed was like a deformed hanging man.
  • Highest OI for Calls continue to be at 9000 Strike. But there was net reduction in the OI by the end of the day. Second Highest OI continues to be at 8900 and there wasn't much change in the OI at this strike.
  • Highest OI for Puts is 8800, a big change from yesterday. The 8500 Strike which held the highest OI for most part of the series has been relegated to the second position now.
  • The Put to Call ratio has been increasing gradually and steadily, suggesting that more puts are being written than the Calls.
  • The VIX has apparently reached a stage of a plateau and continues to be at 20.
  • The Futures data suggest short unwinding and addition of longs at lower levels.
  • The Volumes for the day were quiet heavy. The body of the day was only 12.5 points. This suggests distribution. Apparently we are nearing the top of this swing.
  • Warning: Nifty is approaching the Climax of the rise from 8470, avoid carrying heavy positions overnight. Nifty would continue to inch up ever so slowly now. Thank You.
  1. Price Action: On Thu 19 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8883.05 ( 71 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8913.45 ( 19 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8794.45 ( -15 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8895.3 ( 26 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 219,867,400 ( 45% Higher than last trading session, and about 23.5% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 107.98% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 18.15 Points, and the body was equal to 12.25 and lower shadow was equal to 88.6
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8726. The RSI (14) is at 65.2 Up by 1.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -12.2 Up by 1.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.6 a change of 0.2 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.6
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 23 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.41 Dn by 0.07 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8820; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8755; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8598; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8479; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7955. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Thu 19 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.89, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.53. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 12.78, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8664, Over Sold at 8709 the mean is at 8821, Over Bought at 8932 and Extremely Over Bought at 8977
  7. Volumes: On Thursday 19 Feb 2015 Volume was 219,867,400 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 189,100,000. The MFI reading was 54.1 while previously it was 54.9. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 19 Feb 2015 was 27,701,550 while previously it was 27,709,025 a change of -0.03% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 12.21% while previously it was 11.41% while the change in Open Interest was -2.65% which might suggest SHORTS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.06% while previously it was 9.04% while the change in Open Interest was 34.18% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 19 Feb 2015 was 105,495,400 while previously it was 104,947,325 a change of 0.52%
    • The daily VIX closed at 20.4, while previous close was 20.91, a change of -2.46% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.99 while yesterday it was 0.96 a change of 0.03 or 3.12 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.09 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,086,350 a change of -8% and IV of 16.59 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.7.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,627,250 a change of 1% and IV of 17.65 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,086,350 a change of -8% and IV of 16.59 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.7.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6700 with Open Interest at 276,900 a change of -8% and IV of 120.44 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 83.5.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 4,313,700 a change of 13% and IV of 15.24 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,876,800 a change of -2% and IV of 18.99 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.7.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 2,222,900 a change of -25% and IV of 24.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 22.2.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,600 a change of 4% and IV of 74.32 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.5.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.245 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0427 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,83,008. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0265


Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Behold, He is coming with the clouds...

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  • Recap: Now for Wednesday, 18th Feb 2015, the outlook seems to be range bound with negative bias. Nifty is likely to test lower levels, but is unlikely to fall below 8718 level. Once this correction is over, Nifty would continue to move higher for 8930 odd levels
  • The Nifty was rangebound for most part of the day, though bias was overwhelmingly positive throughout the session. Nifty opened at 8811 and made a low of 8808.90 during the opening session itself, and never did it come near it. In the post lunch session Nifty continued for it's journey towards 8930 odd levels, and registered an intraday high of 8894.30.
  • The OI data at close suggests that intraday PE buildup around 8800 was used by day traders for making some quick bucks, and the supports around this strike aren't very robust. However 9000 continues to be a favorite with CE writers. This might indicate that 9000 +/- 20 points continue to be perceived as a strong resistance by Options Writers. Since VIX continues to be higher, it's attracting a lot of Option Writing interest. Futures data suggest slow build up of and or rolling over of Feb longs to March Shorts.
  • Volumes have been very low for past couple of sessions, but Nifty continues to rise past some tough resistances, which indicates a general consensus among market participants about the very short term valuations.
  • Tomorrow, i.e., on Thursday, 19 Feb 2015, Nifty is likely to continue it's journey northwards, towards 8930, 8950 levels. But a close above 8861 is a must for Nifty to remain bullish.
  • Just happened to check my e-mail, and looolzzz, there are so many comments interspersed in different posts, would take hours to reply to each one of them. So I am just replying here,(a)I don't have any kinds of paid services, and there are no plans to start one in this lifetime;(b) if there would be any change of levels or targets, I'd post that information here.(c)I run intraday thread under the pseudonym of pk_chivas on vfmdirect.com. Thanks
  1. Price Action: On Wed 18 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8811.55 ( -20 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8894.3 ( 24 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8808.9 ( 15 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8869.1 ( 59 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 152,152,801 ( 8% Higher than last trading session, and about -13.2% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -60.93% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 25.2 Points, and the body was equal to 57.55 and lower shadow was equal to 2.65
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8705. The RSI (14) is at 64 Up by 2.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -13.6 Up by 6.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.4 a change of 1.3 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.4
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.5 Up by 0.2 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.49 Up by 0.04 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8783; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8731; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8580; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8470; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7945. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 18 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.53, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.75. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 14.79, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8627, Over Sold at 8673 the mean is at 8783, Over Bought at 8894 and Extremely Over Bought at 8939
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 Volume was 152,152,801 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 188,900,000. The MFI reading was 54.9 while previously it was 55.6. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 was 27,709,025 while previously it was 27,625,600 a change of 0.3% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 11.41% while previously it was 14.76% while the change in Open Interest was -1.92% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.04% while previously it was 9.83% while the change in Open Interest was 41.53% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 was 104,947,325 while previously it was 103,056,175 a change of 1.84%
    • The daily VIX closed at 20.91, while previous close was 20.83, a change of 0.42% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.96 while yesterday it was 0.95 a change of 0.01 or 1.05 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,613,475 a change of 6% and IV of 16.06 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,571,950 a change of -0% and IV of 16.19 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,613,475 a change of 6% and IV of 16.06 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 50,800 a change of -3% and IV of 93.78 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 57.8.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,950,725 a change of 2% and IV of 19.9 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,828,025 a change of 6% and IV of 16.9 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 3,742,075 a change of 6% and IV of 17.76 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,375 a change of -44% and IV of 70.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 36.5.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.245 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0427 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,83,008. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0265


Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Pictures come alive

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  • Recap: Now it is being expected that on Monday, Nifty would continue it's journey northwards, and test 8840 to 8900 range. And by a long shot, it's bounce might get arrested there. After which it moves sideways with a negative bias.
  • Nifty made a high of 8870 and got sold off to 8793.40 following that. On the candlestick charts it was a black "shooting star like" candle within the range of the previous swing. The volumes were unusually low owing to the holiday on Tuesday.
  • In the intraday charts, it seems Nifty is doing a 4th wave of the move from 8470. So far it seems to have partially completed a 3 wave corrective structure from 8870 top.
  • The OI data suggests, that 8800 is being perceived to be a safe support, so Put Writers are boldly writing Puts for that Strike.
  • Now for Wednesday, 18th Feb 2015, the outlook seems to be range bound with negative bias. Nifty is likely to test lower levels, but is unlikely to fall below 8718 level. Once this correction is over, Nifty would continue to move higher for 8930 odd levels
  • Options writers could write 8500 PE. Thanks for reading this - Enjoy.
  1. Price Action: On Mon 16 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8831.4 ( 89 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8870.1 ( 48 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8793.4 ( 63 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8809.35 ( 3 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 140,637,331 ( -39% Lower than last trading session, and about -20.5% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -92.08% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 38.7 Points, and the body was equal to 22.05 and lower shadow was equal to 15.95
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8673. The RSI (14) is at 61.2 Up by 0.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -20.1 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 98.1 a change of 0.1 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 98.1
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.3 Up by 0.1 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.44 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8740; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8707; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8561; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8464; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7935. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Mon 16 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.75, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.22. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -6.23, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8581, Over Sold at 8628 the mean is at 8740, Over Bought at 8852 and Extremely Over Bought at 8899
  7. Volumes: On Monday 16 Feb 2015 Volume was 140,637,331 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 201,400,000. The MFI reading was 55.6 while previously it was 56.4. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 16 Feb 2015 was 27,625,600 while previously it was 27,179,525 a change of 1.64% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 14.76% while previously it was 11.47% while the change in Open Interest was 0.94% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.83% while previously it was 9.21% while the change in Open Interest was 16.89% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. The daily VIX closed at 20.83, while previous close was 20.1, a change of 3.59% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
  11. The Index PCR is 0.95 while yesterday it was 0.91 a change of 0.03 or 4.39 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.82 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  12. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 16 Feb 2015 was 103,056,175 while previously it was 100,883,425 a change of 2.15%
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,233,675 a change of 1% and IV of 16.79 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.3.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,572,100 a change of 30% and IV of 17.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,572,100 a change of 30% and IV of 17.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 14,275 a change of -10% and IV of 97.32 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 78.3.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,881,850 a change of -6% and IV of 18.62 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.2.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,621,250 a change of 18% and IV of 15.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8600 with Open Interest at 3,494,400 a change of -17% and IV of 17.49 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 6.5.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 11,325 a change of -10% and IV of 61.79 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 24.7.
  13. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.2023 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0663 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,94,766. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.9938