Sunday, May 18, 2014

The End Of the Road

  • I started blogging in Feb 2009. In last 5 years I had the opportunity to learn and express my ideas through the medium of Blog Posts. In the early part of the last year, I started publishing my posts on the public Facebook account as well. The intention was not to become a journalist, but I realised that that's what I'd become.
  • I have nothing new to express share or discuss now. I have reached a stage where I have very little desire to share my views or thoughts about market, anymore.
  • I'd like to thank all the people who encouraged me to keep blogging, including those who loved me, those who hated me and those who stole from me. In the end I hope I didn't let you guys down.
  • If you want to write to me, feel free to do so, but please remember I am disinclined to discuss Markets, Astrology or anything else. Neither do I provide any type of services related to Capital Markets, nor do I intend to. Thank You for your offers.
  • I wish you all a Happy and Prosperous Life ahead. And I thank you for reading my posts. God Be With You, always and forever. Amen.
  • Elliott Wave Notes: Elliott Wave Classic Patterns
    Advanced NEoWAVE Discoveries


Friday, May 16, 2014

Exit 6900 CE bought below 160/- CMP 560+



Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Judgement Day

  • Nifty is forming all sorts of dojis and spinning tops at the top.
  • It has already factored in the victory of NDA, and Mr Modi as PM, into prices.
  • As stated yesterday, Nifty would be rangebound, between 7225 and 7000.
  • Nifty is highly overbought relative to it's medium term and long term averages. But it is not Overbought as per the Breadth Analysis.
  • Any upmove is not likely to carry beyond 7386. But a correction could go all the way to 50 DMA at 6663.
  • Open Interest - Futures data suggest building of Short Positions across the board.
  • In medium term Nifty is displaying strength. It has a potential to go wherever it wants to go.
  • But there would be corrections or counter trend moves along the way.
  • Nifty is expected to remain highly volatile for next two sessions - any upmove during these two sessions is likely to meet selling after that.



  1. Price Action: On Thu 15 May 2014, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 7111.3 ( -1 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 7152.55 ( 10 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 7082.55 ( 1 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 7123.15 ( 14 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 186,848,485 ( 5% Higher than last trading session, and about 23.3% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 104.83% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 29.4 Points, and the body was equal to 11.85 and lower shadow was equal to 28.75
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 6917. The RSI (14) is at 76.6 Up by 0.5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 67 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -9.2 Up by 2.6 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -5 and Oversold below -68. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.9 a change of 0 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.9
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 30.7 Up by 1.4 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.38 Up by 0.02 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 7031; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 6901; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 6765; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 6663; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 6173. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Thu 15 May 2014, the Market Breadth was 0.54, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.75. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -14.27, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 6912, Over Sold at 6947 the mean is at 7032, Over Bought at 7117 and Extremely Over Bought at 7152
  7. Volumes: On Thursday 15 May 2014 Volume was 186,848,485 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 151,400,000. The MFI reading was 42.4 while previously it was 42.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 15 May 2014 was 20,068,650 while previously it was 18,990,550 a change of 5.68% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 29-May-2014 was 7.29% while previously it was 11.03% while the change in Open Interest was 5.37% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Jun-2014 was 4.78% while previously it was 6.26% while the change in Open Interest was 8.16% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 15 May 2014 was 142,780,450 while previously it was 125,175,550 a change of 14.06%
    • The daily VIX closed at 36.77, while previous close was 32.42, a change of 13.4% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 28 to 12
    • The Index PCR is 0.75 while yesterday it was 1 a change of -0.25 or -25 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.13 to 0.8 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7200 with Open Interest at 6,168,100 a change of 19% and IV of 42.43.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8000 with Open Interest at 5,956,250 a change of 45% and IV of 41.58.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8000 with Open Interest at 5,956,250 a change of 45% and IV of 41.58.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 4800 with Open Interest at 6,700 a change of -1% and IV of 86.21.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6400 with Open Interest at 5,405,800 a change of 6% and IV of 52.76.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 5,193,850 a change of 6% and IV of 51.24.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 6800 with Open Interest at 4,383,700 a change of 59% and IV of 48.31.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 4700 with Open Interest at 224,650 a change of 8% and IV of 84.11.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 59.4745 and it Lost against the INR by about -0.4028 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 4.8% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 9,88,248. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 60.0445
  12. TIME:
    PlanetSignDegreeLordNakshatraPadLordSub LordPosition
    AscGemini72MerArdra2RahMer
    SunTaurus31VenKrittika2SunRah
    MonScorpio228MarJyestha1MerKetDeb
    Mar(R)Virgo165MerHasta2MonJup
    MerTaurus51VenRohini4MonVen
    JupGemini83MerPunarvasu2JupSat
    VenPisces350JupRevati2MerVenExl
    Sat(R)Libra205VenVishakha2JupMerExl
    Rah(R)Libra184VenChitra4MarVen
    Ket(R)Aries4MarAshwini2KetMon
    UraPisces350JupRevati2MerVen
    NepAquarius313SatSatabhisaj3RahMer
    Pluto(R)Sagittarius259JupP.Asadha2VenRah

    PlanetAspectPlanetOrb/Value
    SunOppositionSaturn5.37-105
    MoonOppositionMercury2-396
    MoonTrineVenus1.5485
    MoonSextileMars3.591
    MoonTrineUranus1.4394
    MoonSquareNeptune5.39-10
    MoonTrineMidheaven5.5324
    MercurySextileVenus0.06307
    MercuryTrineMars5.5937
    MercurySextileUranus0.17307
    VenusOppositionMars5.53-44
    VenusSquareJupiter2.25-65
    VenusConjunctionUranus0.11275
    VenusSquarePluto1.32-42
    VenusSquareAscendant1.17-39
    VenusConjunctionMidheaven7.4843
    MarsOppositionUranus5.42-46
    MarsSquarePluto4.22-13
    MarsSquareAscendant4.36-10
    MarsOppositionMidheaven1.54-66
    JupiterTrineSaturn2.185
    JupiterSquareUranus2.36-59
    JupiterOppositionPluto3.57-88
    JupiterConjunctionAscendant3.42164
    SaturnTrineAscendant5.5311
    UranusSquarePluto1.21-31
    UranusSquareAscendant1.06-24
    UranusConjunctionMidheaven7.3729
    NeptuneTrineAscendant6.166
    PlutoOppositionAscendant0.15-19


Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Nifty Consolidates Around 7100


  • The Nifty has created a record by closing exactly at the same price as it did yesterday, after 9 years. Earlier on June 1 2005, the benchmark index had closed unchanged at 2,087.55 points.
  • As long as Nifty is trading below 7225 the bias is negative. A breach of 7000 would open the gates for 6786. On the other hand a breach of 7225 would open the gates for 7386 and beyond.
  • Nifty would be rangebound between 7000 and 7225
  • It is quite unlikely that a major correction would take place on the declaration of Elections Results
  • Elliott Wave Counts indicate that the move that started with the low of 5933, would peak out during the next 3 - 4 trading sessions.
  • Trade Light - Trade Right -& Prosper!

  1. Price Action: On Wed 14 May 2014, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 7112 ( 32 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 7142.25 ( -31 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 7080.9 ( 13 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 7108.75 ( 0 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 177,204,155 ( -24% Lower than last trading session, and about 18.7% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 62.87% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 30.25 Points, and the body was equal to 3.25 and lower shadow was equal to 27.85
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 6866. The RSI (14) is at 76.1 Dn by 0 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 67 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -11.9 Dn by 0.8 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -5 and Oversold below -68. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.9 a change of 0 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.9
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 29.3 Up by 1.5 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.36 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 6985; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 6863; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 6747; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 6645; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 6168. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 14 May 2014, the Market Breadth was 1.75, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.75. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 11.97, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 6864, Over Sold at 6900 the mean is at 6986, Over Bought at 7072 and Extremely Over Bought at 7108
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 14 May 2014 Volume was 177,204,155 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 139,500,000. The MFI reading was 42.1 while previously it was 49.6. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 14 May 2014 was 18,990,550 while previously it was 17,862,100 a change of 6.32% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 29-May-2014 was 11.03% while previously it was 8.50% while the change in Open Interest was 6.33% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Jun-2014 was 6.26% while previously it was 5.61% while the change in Open Interest was 6.27% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 14 May 2014 was 125,175,550 while previously it was 120,660,450 a change of 3.74%
    • The daily VIX closed at 32.42, while previous close was 32.05, a change of 1.16% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 28 to 12
    • The Index PCR is 1 while yesterday it was 0.85 a change of 0.15 or 17.64 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.13 to 0.81 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7000 with Open Interest at 5,857,050 a change of 9% and IV of 44.46.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7200 with Open Interest at 5,272,100 a change of 9% and IV of 43.46.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 7500 with Open Interest at 5,181,400 a change of 46% and IV of 41.57.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 5800 with Open Interest at 56,200 a change of -9% and IV of 55.76.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6400 with Open Interest at 5,958,450 a change of 17% and IV of 49.09.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 5,304,350 a change of 20% and IV of 48.17.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 7000 with Open Interest at 2,220,450 a change of 130% and IV of 44.75.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 4700 with Open Interest at 210,950 a change of 13% and IV of 73.68.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 59.8773 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.1483 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.7% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 9,42,607. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 60.1384
  12. TIME
    PlanetSignDegreeLordNakshatraPadLordSub LordPosition
    AscGemini72MerArdra2RahSat
    SunTaurus30VenKrittika2SunRah
    MonScorpio214MarAnuradha1SatSatDeb
    Mar(R)Virgo165MerHasta2MonJup
    MerTaurus49VenRohini3MonMer
    JupGemini83MerPunarvasu1JupSat
    VenPisces349JupRevati1MerVenExl
    Sat(R)Libra205VenVishakha2JupMerExl
    Rah(R)Libra184VenChitra4MarVen
    Ket(R)Aries4MarAshwini2KetMon
    UraPisces350JupRevati2MerVen
    NepAquarius313SatSatabhisaj3RahMer
    Pluto(R)Sagittarius259JupP.Asadha2VenRah

    PlanetAspectPlanetOrb/Value
    SunOppositionMoon4.42-91
    SunOppositionSaturn4.35-137
    MoonConjunctionSaturn9.173
    MoonTrineMidheaven7.115
    MercurySextileVenus0.19290
    MercuryTrineMars4.2267
    MercurySextileUranus1.14228
    VenusOppositionMars4.41-61
    VenusSquareJupiter3.24-47
    VenusConjunctionUranus0.55254
    VenusSquarePluto0.22-53
    VenusSquareAscendant1.01-41
    VenusConjunctionMidheaven7.4345
    MarsOppositionUranus5.36-48
    MarsSquarePluto4.19-14
    MarsSquareAscendant3.4-16
    MarsOppositionMidheaven3.02-56
    JupiterTrineSaturn2.2582
    JupiterSquareUranus2.29-61
    JupiterOppositionPluto3.46-91
    JupiterConjunctionAscendant4.25145
    SaturnTrineAscendant6.56
    UranusSquarePluto1.17-31
    UranusSquareAscendant1.56-20
    UranusConjunctionMidheaven8.3816
    NeptuneTrineAscendant5.2410
    PlutoOppositionAscendant0.39-19


Monday, May 12, 2014

Hey Mr. Tambourine Man, Play a song for me..

  • So #Nifty formed the second white soldier in the EOD charts. All eyes would be watching for tomorrow's candle; would it be the third white candle?
  • Good chances of that happening, but also remember that traders and institutions who had written 7000 Call Options are comfortably sitting on their positions, they are not unnerved with a closing above 7000.
  • Nifty has to retest 6870 level, as it hoists further smugly in the 5th and the final wave.
  • Nifty could get spike to 6950 again and again, but no need to panic as long as 6935 isn't taken out.
  • Yess, if Nifty goes above 7100 (ideally 7300), buy OTM Puts in June Series, as soon as it goes weak. There is no change in technical outlook, whatsoever.
  • Please Note that Nifty can and would do 7386 before it finally calls it a day to this up move from 5118.
  • Trade Light - #Trade Right and Prosper!!


  1. Price Action: On Mon 12 May 2014, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 6863.4 ( 209 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 7020.05 ( 148 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6862.9 ( 210 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 7014.25 ( 155 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 157,725,090 ( -5% Lower than last trading session, and about 11.2% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 37.68% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 5.8 Points, and the body was equal to 150.85 and lower shadow was equal to 0.5
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 6718. The RSI (14) is at 72.7 Up by 7.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is range-bound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 67 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -1.3 Up by 2.5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -5 and Oversold below -68. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.9 a change of 0.4 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.9
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 26.1 Up by 0.7 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.34 Up by 0.08 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 6832; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 6772; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 6710; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 6608; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 6157. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Mon 12 May 2014, the Market Breadth was 1.02, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.63. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -31.29, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 6716, Over Sold at 6750 the mean is at 6833, Over Bought at 6915 and Extremely Over Bought at 6949
  7. Volumes: On Monday 12 May 2014 Volume was 157,725,090 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 115,800,000. The MFI reading was 45.9 while previously it was 45. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 12 May 2014 was 16,545,600 while previously it was 16,023,750 a change of 3.26% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 29-May-2014 was 8.80% while previously it was 7.59% while the change in Open Interest was 2.98% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Jun-2014 was 5.17% while previously it was 4.85% while the change in Open Interest was 6.16% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 12 May 2014 was 119,726,150 while previously it was 107,310,850 a change of 11.57%
    • The daily VIX closed at 37.11, while previous close was 37.71, a change of -1.59% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 27 to 12
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7000 with Open Interest at 5,857,050 a change of 9% and IV of 44.46.
    • Second Highest #OpenInterest in Calls is for 7200 with Open Interest at 5,272,100 a change of 9% and IV of 43.46.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 7500 with Open Interest at 5,181,400 a change of 46% and IV of 41.57.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 5800 with Open Interest at 56,200 a change of -9% and IV of 55.76.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6400 with Open Interest at 5,958,450 a change of 17% and IV of 49.09.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 5,304,350 a change of 20% and IV of 48.17.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 7000 with Open Interest at 2,220,450 a change of 130% and IV of 44.75.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 4700 with Open Interest at 210,950 a change of 13% and IV of 73.68.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 59.729 and it Lost against the INR by about -0.325 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 7.7% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 9,17,562. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 60.2499
  12. TIME:
    PlanetSignDegreeLordNakshatraPadLordSub LordPosition
    AscCapricorn295SatDhanistha1MarRah
    SunSagittarius268JupU.Asadha1SunMar
    MonLibra208VenVishakha3JupVen
    MarLeo141SunP.Phalguni3VenJup
    MerSagittarius263JupP.Asadha4VenSatCom
    Jup(R)Leo136SunP.Phalguni1VenSun
    VenAquarius302SatDhanistha3MarVen
    Sat(R)Virgo153MerU.Phalguni3SunSat
    Rah(R)Leo126SunMagha2KetRah
    Ket(R)Aquarius306SatDhanistha4MarMon
    UraScorpio211MarVishakha4JupMar
    NepScorpio237MarJyestha4MerJup
    PlutoVirgo178MerChitra2MarSat

    PlanetAspectPlanetOrb/Value
    SunOppositionSaturn2.3-202
    MoonTrineNeptune5.5122
    MercurySextileVenus1.19212
    MercuryTrineMars0.54130
    MercurySquareNeptune2.5-119
    VenusOppositionMars2.13-96
    VenusSquareJupiter5.22-12
    VenusConjunctionUranus3.08192
    VenusSquarePluto1.58-38
    VenusSquareAscendant0.28-45
    VenusConjunctionMidheaven7.3348
    MarsOppositionUranus5.21-51
    MarsSquarePluto4.11-15
    MarsSquareAscendant1.45-30
    MarsOppositionMidheaven5.2-34
    JupiterTrineSaturn2.5574
    JupiterSquareUranus2.14-65
    JupiterOppositionPluto3.23-97
    JupiterConjunctionAscendant5.5108
    UranusSquarePluto1.1-32
    UranusSquareAscendant3.36-12
    NeptuneTrineAscendant3.416
    PlutoOppositionAscendant2.27-15



Sunday, May 11, 2014

The Weekly Oultook


  • As the heartbeats begin to race faster, and faster, and as the D-Day draws closer,and closer, and as the Nifty hoists higher, and higher, we slowly approach the climax of the move that started at 5118.
  • Nifty played out the entire move step by step as envisaged by us in the last weekly outlook post. Glory to The God of The Heaven and The Earth, The Dawn and The Dusk.
  • This week Nifty would make a determined attempt to cross 7000. The Resistance zone is 7035 - 7047. If Nifty crosses 7000, it would begin to wobble, since it would attract Sellers, and Short Sellers.
  • Below 7000, Nifty has resistances at 6870, 6935 - while supports are placed at 6813, 6764 and 6723.
  • The 6900 Call Option has touched 285 on it's way to 320. It was suggested below 160.
  • All this could happen in the backdrop of Non Democratic Alliance (NDA) falling short of their target of 230 votes. Which could force the Joker Chands in the Alliance to issue the names like Sukshma Swaraj and Jai Lolita for the coveted Post.
  • Nifty is one step closer to it's last upthrust. Nifty could be spiked several times this week, but it'd not make it weak at all. Buy all corrections.

P.S. >> ROFL: Now "Political Analysts" stealing views from Predictive Analysts. Shame.Read this article published at Sunday, May 11, 2014, 19:16



Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Nifty in a Short Term Downtrend

  • So Nifty fell down much to our expectation, as discussed in Weekly Outlook, EW Counts and Monday and Tuesday's Posts. But it has suddenly exhibited the characterstics of a C wave. And that is one reason why, nobody dared to write Puts today. A Put to Call Ratio of 0.66 is really Epic! This sudden deterioration could point to some underlying news that is in currency among big traders and Institutions.
  • We have been expecting a positive close for Thursday, but if it doesn't materialize that could spell trouble for Nifty.
  • There is a minor support at 6627. below that the support lies at 6562. If 6562 is taken then the supports are placed at 6480 - 6510.
  • On the other hand if Nifty does take support around 6627 - 6635 and if it rises towards 6688, it'd be Sell on Rise. A close below 6688 would be bearish.

  1. Price Action: On Wed 07 May 2014, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 6708.6 ( -11 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6718.75 ( -25 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 6642.9 ( -59 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 6652.55 ( -63 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 114,099,791 ( 29% Higher than last trading session, and about -19.4% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -56.11% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 10.15 Points, and the body was equal to 56.05 and lower shadow was equal to 9.65
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 6692. The RSI (14) is at 46.3 Dn by 7.5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 67 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -55.9 Dn by 16.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -5 and Oversold below -68. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 0.6 a change of -18.3 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 0.6
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 26.1 Dn by 0.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.36 Dn by 0.02 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 6694; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 6718; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 6681; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 6566; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 6144. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 07 May 2014, the Market Breadth was 0.68, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.96. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -57.26, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 6601, Over Sold at 6628 the mean is at 6695, Over Bought at 6762 and Extremely Over Bought at 6789
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 07 May 2014 Volume was 114,099,791 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 98,200,000. The MFI reading was 36.1 while previously it was 35.5. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN A DOWNTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 07 May 2014 was 15,093,150 while previously it was 14,071,750 a change of 7.26% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 29-May-2014 was 7.24% while previously it was 7.40% while the change in Open Interest was 7.31% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Jun-2014 was 5.34% while previously it was 5.39% while the change in Open Interest was 5.44% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 07 May 2014 was 90,905,100 while previously it was 84,963,050 a change of 6.99%
    • The daily VIX closed at 33.61, while previous close was 33.27, a change of 1.04% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 27 to 12
    • The Index PCR is 0.66 while yesterday it was 0.7 a change of -0.03 or -5.71 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.11 to 0.84 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go DOWN in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7000 with Open Interest at 4,555,700 a change of 18% and IV of 34.56.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 6900 with Open Interest at 3,168,250 a change of 11% and IV of 35.07.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 7000 with Open Interest at 4,555,700 a change of 18% and IV of 34.56.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 8300 with Open Interest at 292,100 a change of 10% and IV of 40.23.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6400 with Open Interest at 4,180,500 a change of 2% and IV of 38.11.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 4,155,100 a change of -4% and IV of 37.85.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 6000 with Open Interest at 3,253,600 a change of 13% and IV of 39.38.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 4700 with Open Interest at 205,150 a change of 75% and IV of 56.93.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 60.0399 and it Lost against the INR by about -0.1621 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.7% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 7,73,199. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 60.463
  12. TIME:
    PlanetSignDegreeLordNakshatraPadLordSub LordPosition
    AscGemini66MerMrigasira4MarMon
    SunAries24MarBharani4VenMerExl
    MonCapricorn297SatDhanistha2MarJup
    MarLeo127SunMagha3KetJup
    MerAries17MarBharani2VenMarCom
    JupLeo126SunMagha3KetRah
    VenGemini64MerMrigasira4MarVen
    Sat(R)Leo146SunU.Phalguni1SunSun
    Rah(R)Leo121SunMagha1KetVen
    Ket(R)Aquarius301SatDhanistha3MarMer
    Ura(R)Scorpio210MarVishakha4JupMon
    Nep(R)Scorpio238MarJyestha4MerSat
    Pluto(R)Virgo176MerChitra1MarRah


    PlanetAspectPlanetOrb/Value
    SunSextileJupiter1.25252
    SunOppositionSaturn2.42-196
    SunTrinePluto3.5556
    MoonSquareMercury2.16-159
    MoonOppositionNeptune8.31-18
    MercurySextileMidheaven2.2793
    VenusOppositionMars4.08-69
    VenusConjunctionUranus8.3739
    VenusSquareAscendant0.5-42
    VenusConjunctionMidheaven7.1255
    MarsOppositionUranus4.29-63
    MarsSquarePluto3.38-19
    MarsSquareAscendant3.18-19
    JupiterTrineSaturn4.0757
    JupiterSquareUranus1.39-76
    JupiterOppositionPluto2.3-113
    JupiterConjunctionAscendant9.2615
    UranusSquarePluto0.51-34
    NeptuneTrineAscendant0.4127
    PlutoOppositionAscendant6.56-5


Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Nifty ready to finish off this phase with a fall

Nifty was again sold off above 6732, much to our expectations as discussed in Weekly Outlook and Mondays Post. Now come Wednesday, and it's being expected that Nifty would attempt to scare the daylights out of all the Nouveaux Bulls.
With Volumes thinner than a potato wafer, it's unlikely that Nifty is going to break the sound barrier, but one could expect that it might settle for 6675 as a reasonable support.
Option Writers who had taken a fancy for writing 6800 Calls have woken up and were observed shifting their positions to 7200 Calls. Similarly 6800 Put Writers are moving towards greener and safer pasteurs below 6500.
Trade Light - Trade Right and Be Happy!


  1. Price Action: On Tue 06 May 2014, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 6719.25 ( 37 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6743.45 ( 2 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6701.9 ( 21 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 6715.3 ( 15 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 88,291,413 ( -16% Lower than last trading session, and about -38.4% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -113.4% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 24.2 Points, and the body was equal to 3.95 and lower shadow was equal to 13.4
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 6707. The RSI (14) is at 53.9 Up by 1.8 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 67 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -39.7 Up by 3.2 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -5 and Oversold below -68. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 18.9 a change of 15.7 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 1.8
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 26.4 Dn by 1.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.39 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 6715; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 6729; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 6677; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 6555; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 6141. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Tue 06 May 2014, the Market Breadth was 0.96, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.73. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -47.26, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 6623, Over Sold at 6650 the mean is at 6716, Over Bought at 6782 and Extremely Over Bought at 6809
  7. Volumes: On Tuesday 06 May 2014 Volume was 88,291,413 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 100,800,000. The MFI reading was 35.5 while previously it was 39.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently SELL ON BOUNCES
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Tuesday 06 May 2014 was 14,071,750 while previously it was 14,308,700 a change of -1.66% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 29-May-2014 was 7.40% while previously it was 8.18% while the change in Open Interest was -1.87% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Jun-2014 was 5.39% while previously it was 5.64% while the change in Open Interest was 0.22% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Tuesday 06 May 2014 was 84,963,050 while previously it was 81,514,800 a change of 4.23%
    • The daily VIX closed at 33.27, while previous close was 34.19, a change of -2.69% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 26 to 12
    • The Index PCR is 0.7 while yesterday it was 0.95 a change of -0.25 or -26.31 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.11 to 0.84 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go DOWN in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7000 with Open Interest at 3,847,300 a change of -6% and IV of 34.38.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 2,947,250 a change of -7% and IV of 35.2.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 7200 with Open Interest at 2,419,800 a change of 23% and IV of 33.48.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 4800 with Open Interest at 9,200 a change of - and IV of 51.05.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 4,333,500 a change of 6% and IV of 37.33.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6400 with Open Interest at 4,116,150 a change of 3% and IV of 37.41.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 6300 with Open Interest at 2,588,050 a change of 17% and IV of 37.32.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 4700 with Open Interest at 116,950 a change of -2% and IV of 56.43.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 60.202 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.1545 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.6% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 7,93,370. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 60.4942
  12. TIME:

    PlanetSignDegreeLordNakshatraPadLordSub LordPosition
    AscGemini64MerMrigasira4MarVen
    SunAries22MarBharani3VenSatExl
    MonCancer112MonAshlesha2MerMon
    Mar(R)Virgo166MerHasta2MonSat
    MerTaurus34VenKrittika3SunSatCom
    JupGemini81MerPunarvasu1JupSat
    VenPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSunExl
    Sat(R)Libra206VenVishakha2JupKetExl
    Rah(R)Libra184VenChitra4MarVen
    Ket(R)Aries4MarAshwini2KetMon
    UraPisces350JupRevati2MerVen
    NepAquarius313SatSatabhisaj2RahMer
    Pluto(R)Sagittarius259JupP.Asadha2VenRah
    PlanetAspectPlanetOrb/Value
    SunSquareMoon0.2-179
    SunSextileJupiter0.37330
    SunOppositionSaturn3.45-163
    SunTrinePluto2.5670
    MoonSquareSaturn3.24-56
    MoonTrineUranus2.2983
    MercuryOppositionSaturn8.49-5
    MercurySextileMidheaven1.3398
    VenusOppositionMars5.26-50
    VenusConjunctionUranus9.438
    VenusSquareAscendant1.05-40
    VenusConjunctionMidheaven7.0756
    MarsSquareJupiter5.48-3
    MarsOppositionUranus4.17-66
    MarsSquarePluto3.29-21
    MarsSquareAscendant4.21-12
    JupiterTrineSaturn4.2153
    JupiterSquareUranus1.32-77
    JupiterOppositionPluto2.2-116
    SaturnTrineMidheaven7.174
    UranusSquarePluto0.48-35
    NeptuneTrineAscendant1.3324
    PlutoOppositionAscendant7.5-3



Monday, May 5, 2014

Nifty in a Consolidation Phase


As stated in the weekly outlook, Nifty is facing a selling pressure between 6710 and 6750. That condition, is not expected to change tomorrow. However market participants are betting on some upside tomorrow, which if it manifests, would not be for a long time before more selling pushes it down.
Nifty is currently stuck between 6688 and 6732, though these are not the Support and Resistance levels, but somehow both these levels have been triggering a delayed response from the market makers.
The Open Interst data suggests, that currently 6800 Calls and Puts are the most profitable options to write, due to the time decay and high IV readings.
Nifty is not expected to cross 6780 tomorrow.


  1. Price Action: On Mon 05 May 2014, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 6681.65 ( -29 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6741.05 ( 3 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6680.45 ( -10 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 6699.35 ( 4 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 104,989,653 ( -8% Lower than last trading session, and about -28.6% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -88.47% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 41.7 Points, and the body was equal to 17.7 and lower shadow was equal to 1.2
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 6708. The RSI (14) is at 52 Up by 0.5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 67 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -42.9 Up by 1.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -5 and Oversold below -68. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 3.1 a change of 1.3 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 1.8
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 27.7 Dn by 1.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.39 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 6716; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 6732; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 6671; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 6542; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 6137. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Mon 05 May 2014, the Market Breadth was 0.73, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.04. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -50.08, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 6621, Over Sold at 6649 the mean is at 6716, Over Bought at 6784 and Extremely Over Bought at 6812
  7. Volumes: On Monday 05 May 2014 Volume was 104,989,653 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 109,900,000. The MFI reading was 39.1 while previously it was 46.5. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently SELL ON BOUNCES
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 05 May 2014 was 14,308,700 while previously it was 13,897,200 a change of 2.96% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 29-May-2014 was 8.18% while previously it was 6.43% while the change in Open Interest was 2.25% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Jun-2014 was 5.64% while previously it was 5.16% while the change in Open Interest was 12.28% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 05 May 2014 was 81,514,800 while previously it was 77,580,500 a change of 5.07%
    • The daily VIX closed at 34.19, while previous close was 33.06, a change of 3.43% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 26 to 12
    • The Index PCR is 0.95 while yesterday it was 1.06 a change of -0.11 or -10.37 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest -- and while the normal range is 1.11 to 0.85 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go DOWN in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7000 with Open Interest at 4,109,050 a change of 1% and IV of 35.14.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 3,289,150 a change of 2% and IV of 35.39.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 1,426,550 a change of 24% and IV of 34.69.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 5300 with Open Interest at 46,850 a change of - and IV of 62.59.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 4,122,950 a change of 1% and IV of 37.75.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6400 with Open Interest at 4,026,000 a change of 15% and IV of 38.04.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 6400 with Open Interest at 4,026,000 a change of 15% and IV of 38.04.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 4700 with Open Interest at 119,850 a change of 1% and IV of 53.05.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 60.0475 and it Lost against the INR by about -0.1775 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 1.6% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 7,73,201. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 60.4965
  12. TIME
    PlanetSignDegreeLordNakshatraPadLordSub LordPosition
    AscGemini63MerMrigasira4MarVen
    SunAries21MarBharani3VenJupExl
    MonCancer100MonPushya3SatSun
    Mar(R)Virgo166MerHasta2MonSat
    MerTaurus32VenKrittika2SunJupCom
    JupGemini81MerPunarvasu1JupJup
    VenPisces339JupU.Bhadrapada2SatVenExl
    Sat(R)Libra206VenVishakha2JupKetExl
    Rah(R)Libra184VenChitra4MarVen
    Ket(R)Aries4MarAshwini2KetMon
    UraPisces350JupRevati2MerVen
    NepAquarius313SatSatabhisaj2RahMer
    Pluto(R)Sagittarius259JupP.Asadha2VenRah

    PlanetAspectPlanetOrb/Value
    SunSextileJupiter0.12371
    SunOppositionSaturn4.47-131
    SunTrinePluto1.5883
    MoonTrineVenus1.2792
    MercuryOppositionSaturn6.44-60
    MercurySextileMidheaven0.37135
    VenusOppositionMars6.45-32
    VenusSquareAscendant1.2-38
    VenusConjunctionMidheaven7.0358
    MarsSquareJupiter5.28-9
    MarsOppositionUranus4.03-69
    MarsSquarePluto3.19-22
    MarsSquareAscendant5.25-4
    JupiterTrineSaturn4.3550
    JupiterSquareUranus1.25-79
    JupiterOppositionPluto2.09-119
    SaturnTrineMidheaven6.089
    UranusSquarePluto0.44-35
    NeptuneTrineAscendant2.2521
    PlutoOppositionAscendant8.44-1


Sunday, May 4, 2014

Weekly Outlook

As the D-Day draws closer, pulse rates of not only the so called political leaders are increasing, but also of the common citizens of the country, who want to see the new govt do something for their lot. And if you want to check the general mood of the Business Class, you can't ignore the Stock Market.

So as Nifty prepares for it's ultimate upthrust, it takes a breather just below 7000 level.

It's going to remain range-bound as long as it is between 6810 and 6610. In fact, during the early part of the week starting from Monday, every time it reaches 6710 - 6750 level, it's going to get sold off - meaning it's going to fall. Looking from another angle we may infer that it's going to consolidate between 6660 - 6710 level, although both the levels would not be acting as any support or resistance.

So Nifty could remain under pressure until Wednesday, while from Thursday it might try to regain some of its lost ground.

Nifty continues to be buy on dips, as long as it remains above 6610



Thursday, May 1, 2014

We're in Paradis Mi Amor (Monthly Outlook)

There is a lot of interest this month, and people who have ever dabbled in financial markets, are keenly watching Sensex and Nifty. Some are expecting upper circuits, and others are expecting lower circuit. Even the option writers are cautious and allowing a band of 500 points for the expected volatility that could be witnessed once the India Election 2014 Results are out.

So what is the Technical take? What is Nifty going to do under different scenarios that would emerge from the results?

Nifty has created a long shadow(wick) doji outside the Bollinger Bands. This definitely indicates Selling at higher levels.

Nifty for last two months is riding above Bollinger bands. RSI (14) is above 60 and W%R (50) is above -20. A healthy uptrend!

The Short term mean is at 6456. The 13 Month MA is at 6168, and 34 Month MA is at 5642. So Nifty could easily do a mean reversion towards short term mean, that is 6456. And if there is a lot of negative sentiment involved than it could go all the way to 6168. But touching 21 Month SMA at 5955 is a remote possibility.

Nifty is going to be overbought above 6900. Any attempt of Nifty to attain a level higher than that would meet Selling, immediately or delayed. And should Nifty go above 7100, sell everything and go short in June Series.

However if Nifty goes around 6168, put all your money on 6200 June 2014 Call!

Either way, it's a traders paradise.



Selling Climax

    Nifty staged a double top at 6780, and fell down to test 34 DMA, all in a great hurry! The Volumes were 40% higher than the previous trading session. The shape of the candlestick resembles a spinning top in the EOD Charts.
    The intraday data released by the NSE wasn't reliable, and in fact it was trying to conceal the moves that Nifty made intraday.
    In the Open Interest Data, there are people writing 6800 Calls and there are people writing 6800 Puts, the consensus seems to be that both the Calls and Puts for 6800 Strike are unusually juicy! There was a gross addition of 10% in the aggregate Open Interest of Options. Although technically Nifty is in a Short Term Downtrend, but signs of accumulation have begun to appear, but how far would that carry Nifty, beyond the recent highs remains to be seen.
    Although this might be labelled as premature, but Nifty seems to be hanging between 6600 and 6850 till 16th of MAY 2014. Have a feeling that NDA Alliance might not get their targeted 230 seats in the Current Parliamentary Elections.
    On Friday, Nifty is expected to trade between 6740 and 6650 approximately. Trade Light, Trade Right and Enjoy!!!
    P.S. Read this.


  1. Price Action: On Wed 30 Apr 2014, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 6724.95 ( -45 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6780.15 ( 0 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6656.8 ( -52 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 6696.4 ( -19 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 161,106,871 ( 40% Higher than last trading session, and about 5.9% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 19.34% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 55.2 Points, and the body was equal to 28.55 and lower shadow was equal to 39.6
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 6725. The RSI (14) is at 51.7 Dn by 2 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 67 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -43.7 Dn by 8.3 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -5 and Oversold below -68. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 2 a change of -2.1 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 2
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 30.7 Dn by 1.7 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.38 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 6739; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 6745; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 6661; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 6516; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 6129. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 30 Apr 2014, the Market Breadth was 0.37, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.69. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -46.25, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 6641, Over Sold at 6670 the mean is at 6740, Over Bought at 6810 and Extremely Over Bought at 6838
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 30 Apr 2014 Volume was 161,106,871 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 136,500,000. The MFI reading was 46 while previously it was 46.2. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN A DOWNTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 30 Apr 2014 was 13,962,100 while previously it was 13,900,100 a change of 0.45% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 29-May-2014 was 5.64% while previously it was 8.13% while the change in Open Interest was 0.41% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Jun-2014 was 4.71% while previously it was 6.03% while the change in Open Interest was -0.38% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 30 Apr 2014 was 76,825,000 while previously it was 69,439,250 a change of 10.64%
    • The daily VIX closed at 30.59, while previous close was 31.05, a change of -1.47% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 26 to 13
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 7000 with Open Interest at 3,847,750 a change of 7% and IV of 28.75.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 3,023,450 a change of 9% and IV of 28.94.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 1,109,450 a change of 33% and IV of -.
    • Lowest IV in Calls is for 6000 with Open Interest at 549,550 a change of -11% and IV of 12.44.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 3,722,950 a change of 19% and IV of 32.44.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 6800 with Open Interest at 2,953,450 a change of 13% and IV of 31.84.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 6500 with Open Interest at 3,722,950 a change of 19% and IV of 32.44.
    • Lowest IV in Puts is for 7300 with Open Interest at 26,900 a change of 0% and IV of 30.83.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 60.3375 and it Lost against the INR by about -0.1878 (based on RBI Reference Rate). The Daily Parabolic SAR is 60.5201
  12. TIME
    PlanetSignDegreeLordNakshatraPadLordSub LordPosition
    AscGemini60MerMrigasira3MarMer
    SunAries17MarBharani2VenMarExl
    MonTaurus52VenRohini4MonVenExl
    Mar(R)Virgo167MerHasta3MonSat
    MerAries24MarBharani4VenMerCom
    JupGemini81MerPunarvasu1JupJup
    VenPisces334JupU.Bhadrapada1SatSatExl
    Sat(R)Libra206VenVishakha2JupVenExl
    Rah(R)Libra184VenChitra4MarVen
    Ket(R)Aries4MarAshwini2KetMon
    UraPisces350JupRevati2MerVen
    NepAquarius313SatSatabhisaj2RahMer
    Pluto(R)Sagittarius259JupP.Asadha2VenRah

    PlanetAspectPlanetOrb/Value
    SunConjunctionMercury7.04211
    SunSextileJupiter3.2753
    SunOppositionSaturn8.58-1
    SunTrinePluto1.5783
    MoonTrineMars5.1835
    MoonSextileUranus2.18102
    MoonSquareMidheaven5.45-4
    MercurySextileJupiter3.3732
    MercuryOppositionSaturn1.54-190
    MercuryTrinePluto5.0732
    MercurySextileMidheaven3.2623
    VenusSquareAscendant2.18-56
    VenusConjunctionMidheaven6.48116
    MarsSquareJupiter4.01-33
    MarsOppositionUranus3-84
    MarsSquarePluto2.31-28
    JupiterTrineSaturn5.3136
    JupiterSquareUranus1-87
    JupiterTrineNeptune7.561
    JupiterOppositionPluto1.3-130
    JupiterTrineMidheaven7.038
    SaturnTrineMidheaven1.3232
    UranusSquarePluto0.29-37
    NeptuneTrineAscendant5.568