Monday, May 27, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened higher this week at 6198 (6098.2) made a higher high of 6229.45 (6199.95) , and made a lower low of 5936.8 (5970.05). It closed lower at 5983.55 (6187.3) for the week. It was a confirmed bearish engulfing following a Hangman Candlestick signaling possible change of trend.
  2. The RSI(14) jumped to 56 from 65, Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD has crossed it's signal line above zero.Momentum indicators are beginning to get overbought - but seemingly have developed or are developing Negative divergences while Nifty is around major resistance levels. The ADX reading for the week is 20.2, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 13% ABOVE average. The OBV is is kissing it's signal line. The CMF continues below center-line around -0.06.
    1. The Pars Fortunae (POF) for this week lies in 20Cp42. This point is void of aspects. The lord of the First house, Saturn is exalted in Libra. The second house from POF is Aquarius, and it's lord Saturn/Rahu is in an friends' house in the 10th house from POF. The 5th house from POF is Taurus, and it's Lord is Venus in it's own house, who is also the Lord of the 10th House. Since the Lord of the 1st is in 5th there is a Dhana Yoga in this Chart. 1 The Point of Speculation is at 14Sc24 trine Uranus at 17Pi26 and Opposite Sun at 11Ta58.
    2. In Rashi Chart, (D-1), Ascendent is in Gemini, and in Aries in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Mercury which is in a friendly house in Taurus, with Virodh Argala from Ketu and there is no Argala. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Mercury is in it's own house of Virgo, which makes it's placement as very powerful. Moon is well placed in Sagittarius in the seventh house, Kendra, and he's the Lord of the Second House as well; and Saturn ad Rahu are causing Paap Argala on it. Also the Lord of this Nakshatra is Ketu. The ascendent in Navamsa lies in Aries with Taurus as second house, whose lord is in a friendly house. The 5th House has Rahu and Saturn in it, with Saturn exalted. The 10th house has Uranus which is conjunct with Shree Lagna. Mercury, Venus and Jupiter are conjunct with each other.
    3. Vimsottari System indicates Mahadasha of Ketu with Saturn's Bhukti. Moon is in Ketu's House and let's examine the ketu's placement in various Varga Chakras. Ketu is in 11th House of Money in D-1 which corresponds with Aries, while in D-9 he is in 7th house corresponding with Libra, and in D-4 he is in same house as well. So Ketu is well placed in all relevant charts. Saturn is exalted in D-1, in his own house in D-9, and is in his own house in D-4 as well. This gives a powerful placements to both the lords. While Moola is not a Nakshatra where a lot of worldly success could be sought, but nevertheless placement of Ketu and Saturn are not negative and they might actually prove to be positive. However as a rule of thumb, Ketu's Dasha is difficult but I have no experience in interpreting Ketu's mahadasha when he's well placed, I have just followed BPHS.
    4. Chandra Lagna As per Chandra Lagna (CL), the second house is Capricorn and it's lord is Saturn which is in 11th house from CL under the Virodh Argala from the Moon itself! . But in Navamasa Chart, (d-9), Moon is in Gemini, and is the lord of the second causing Dhana Yoga. The Moon is in Moola Nakshatra (27 Nakshatra Vedic System) whose lord is Ketu.
    5. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Pisces with it's lord in Aquarius the 12th house. The lord of the second house Aries is Mars which is in in third house (enemy) with Neptune for comapny. The 5th house has malefic Upaketu. The 10th House has malefic Indrachapa.
    6. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occured on 25th May at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. The coming week is an expiry week, and even astrology is indicating volatility with a mild positive bias. The week looks lackluster and rangebound from Astrological Perspective. Jupiter enters Gemini on Friday...whatta timing!!!!!!!!!!! Tuesday could be the most subdued day of the week. The week is not favorable for day traders. The week could form an inside bar on the charts.
  4. It's pointless to anticipate supports and resistances in a Corrective market, but Nifty is likely to meet some definite resistance around 6112 The expected range for the week is 5927 to 6112. 6042, 6072 and 6112 are major resistances while 5927 and 5891 are major supports.


Sunday, May 19, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened higher this week at 6098.2 (5944.9) made a higher high of 6199.95 (6114.55) , and made a higher low of 5970.05 (5928.45). It closed higher at 6187.3 (6107.25) for the week. This was the highest closing since Dec 2010, or in last 123 weeks
  2. The RSI(14) jumped to 65 from 62, notably it had been taking support around 40 for many months, and so it did it again. Remember it had crossed over to 70 level in the last week of Dec 2012, first time since Dec 2010. In daily charts the RSI is being continously resisted at 70. Fast MACD has crossed it's signal line above zero.Momentum indicators are beginning to get overbought. The ADX reading for the week is 19.8, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 5% ABOVE average. The OBV is in uptrend now. The CMF continues below centerline around -0.01.
    1. The Pars Fortunae (POF) for this week lies in 23 degrees Aquarius. This point is Trine with Rahu at 22Li11, with a Negative orb. The first House also has Neptune. The second house from POF is Pisces, and it's lord Jupiter is in an enemy's house in the 4th house from POF. The 5th house from POF is unoccupied and it's Lord is also in a friends' house -- 4th House. 10th House is unoccupied and it's Lord is in the 3rd house exalted but combust and with Ketu. The Point of Speculation is at 19Le trine to Ketu at 22Ar11.
    2. In Rashi Chart, (D-1), Ascendent is in Gemini, and in Pisces in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Mercury which is combust in a freindly house in Taurus, with Shubh Argala from Moon. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Mercury is again in Taurus, which makes it's placement as very powerful. Moon is well placed in Leo in the third house, and he's the Lord of the Second House as well; although surprisingly all planets are causing Virodh Argala on it! The ascendent in Navamsa lies in Pisces with Rahu in second house. The 5th House has Rahu and Saturn in it, with Saturn exalted. The 10th house has Uranus which is conjunct with malefic Upagraha Indrachapa. Uranus goes square with Pluto on 20th May for the third time in this century. The Planetary periods are Sun-Mon-Sun as per Vimshottari System. The Sun is in good company with Jupiter and Mars but in a common Enemy's house although it has Shubh Argala from Moon, and Sun is trine Moon in D-1
    3. Chandra LagnaAs per Chandra Lagna (CL), the second house is Virgo and it's lord is Mercury which is in 10th house from CL under the Shubh Argala from the Moon itself! . But in Navamasa Chart, (d-9), Moon is in Sagittarius alongwith Mars, and it has Saturn in Second house which is also it's own house in CL/D-9. The Moon is in U.Phalguni Nakshatra (27 Nakshatra Vedic System) whose lord is Sun. Sun is not well placed in both D-1 and D-9, in latter being in Aquarius.
    4. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Sagittarius with it's lord in Aquarius the 3rd house. The lord of the second house Capricorn is Saturn which is in in it's own house with Mars for comapny. The 5th house has Rahu. The 10th House has Uranus.
    5. The Annular Solar Eclipse occured on 10th May at 2:55 AM at 24 Aries. It seems like that coming week would be most profitable for range traders. While the week could witness lots of problems for the uptrend to continue, there could be a sudden change of trend which might not get confirmed during this week. The week looks lacklustre and rangebound from Astrological Perspective. Some weakness or profit booking might happen on Monday or Wednesday. Traders need to remain extra cautious as Uranus is under a lot of stress - and Mercury is combust.
  4. It's pointless to talk about resistances in a rising market, but Nifty is likely to meet some defininte resistance around 6290. The expected range for the week is 6112 to 6300. 6225 and 6250 are major resistances while 6141 and 6112 are major supports.


Sunday, May 12, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened higher this week at 5944.9 (5877.6) made a higher high of 6114.55 (6019.45) , and made a higher low of 5928.45(5867.8 ). It closed higher at 6107.25 (5944) for the week. This was the highest closing since Dec 2010, or in last 123 weeks
  2. The RSI(14) jumped to 62 from 57, notably it had been taking support around 40 for many months, and so it did it again. Remember it had crossed over to 70 level in the last week of Dec 2012, first time since Dec 2010. In daily charts the RSI is being continously resisted at 70. Fast MACD has crossed it's signal line above zero.Momentum indicators are beginning to get overbought. The ADX reading for the week is 19.07, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 7% below average. The OBV is in uptrend now. The CMF continues below centerline around -0.08.
    1. The Pars Fortunae for this week lies in 6 degrees Taurus. This point is Conjunct with Venus at 10Ta18, with a positive orb. The first House also has Jupiter and Mercury. The second house from POF is Gemini, and it's lord Mercury is Combust in the 1st house from POF. The 5th house from POF is unoccupied and it's Lord is in 1st House. Neptune which is a higher Octave of Venus is in the 10th house which falls in Aquarius. The Point of Speculation is at 14Le opposed to Neptune at 11Aq10.
    2. In Rashi Chart, D1, Ascendent is in Gemini, and in Capricorn in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Mercury which is combust in Taurus. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Mercury is in Capricorn with Saturn and Ascendent. Moon is in Gemini alongwith Ascendent, hence the D1 is also Chandra Lagna, causing Shubh Argala to the Mercury in D-1 and Virodh Argala in D-9 (The Mercury is with the Ascendent and Saturn in Capricorn in D-9, while it is with Jupiter and Venus in D-1). The Lord of the Second House Moon is in the first and is conjunct with Jupiter. The Moon is in Mrigashira Nakshatra (27 Nakshatra Vedic System) whose lord is Mars. Mars is causing Virodharagala in both D-1 and D-9 Charts to Mercury the Lord of the 1st, also it passes through the Annular Eclipse point on Wednesday. The 10th house in D-1, is in Pisces, Uranus transiting through it. The 5th House have Saturn alongwith Rahu. The Planetary periods are Mar-Ven-Ven-Mar as per Vimshottari System.
    3. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Virgo with it's lord in Taurus-the 9th house. The lord of the second house Libra is Venus which is in 12th house. The 5th house has Sun, Mars, Ketu and Saturn. The 10th House has Moon with Pluto.
    4. The Annular Solar Eclipse occured on 10th May at 2:55 AM at 24 Aries. It seems like that coming week would be most profitable for trend following traders. While it might prove unprofitable for speculators who might want to trade contratrend. The week looks positive and bullish from Astrological Perspective. Some weakness or profit booking might happen on Tuesday or Wednesday. Any correction could be a good opportunity to enter fresh positions in the direction of the trend.
  4. It's pointless to talk about resistances in a rising market, but Nifty is likely to meet some defininte resistance around 6200. The expected range for the week is 6040 to 6210. 6135 and 6195 are major resistances while 6080 and 6040 are major supports.


Sunday, May 5, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened higher this week at 5877.6 (5789.85) made a higher high of 6019.45 (5924.6) , and made a higher low of 5867.8 (5789.8). It closed higher at 5944 (5871.45) for the week. It closed exactly midway of it's weekly range.
  2. The RSI(14) jumped to 57 from 55, notably it had been taking support around 40 for many months, and so it did it again. Remember it had crossed over to 70 level in the last week of Dec 2012, first time since Dec 2010. In daily charts the RSI has been resisedat 70. Fast MACD had slipped below center line and now ready to touch it's signal line.Momentum indicators continue to indicate weakness, but are coming off from oversold levels. The ADX reading for the week is 18.77, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 11% below average. The OBV is in downtrend, but ready to touch it's signal line. The CMF continues below centerline around -0.1.
  4. The Pars Fortunae for this week lies in 18 degrees Cancer. This point is trine with Uranus, the higher octave of Mercury with a negative orb. The second house from POF is Leo, and it's lord Sun is in the 9th house from it. The 5th house from POF is unoccupied and Sun, Mars, Ketu and Mercury are in the 10th house which falls in Aries. The Point of Speculation is exactly trine with Venus. The Ascendent is in Gemini, in Rashi Chart (D-1), and in Scorpio in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Mercury which is combust in Aries. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Mercury is in Leo (Tenth House) with Jupiter, and Moon is in Virgo, causing Shubh Argala to the Ascendent nand Mercury in D-9 and Virodh Argala in D-1! The Moon is in U.Bhadrapada Nakshatra (27 Nakshatra Vedic System) whose lord is Saturn. The 10th house in D-1, is in Pisces, with Moon and Uranus transiting through it. Moon is trine with Pluto. The Planetary periods are Sat-Mer-Sat-Rah as per Vimshottari System. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Gemini too with it's lord in Libra. The lord of the second house (Cancer) is Moon which is in Pisces. The Annular Solar Eclipse occurs on 10th May at 2:55 AM at 24 Aries. Astrologically coming week would most probably be marred by volatility with no clear trend emerging. Most Speculators would carry forward their short positions in the hope of some good correction which might not happen during this week...
  5. It's pointless to talk about resistances in a rising market, but Nifty is likely to meet some defininte resistance around 6054. On the other hand it could again be a good point for countertrend manouvers. Say, going long in 6000 PE above 6020 odd levels for target of double value. It would be rangebound between 5710 and 5917, while it would be overbought above 5983. Any profit booking could push Nifty to 5805 -5813, although 5865 could act as good support.
  6. Intra Week Updates would appear as comments


Friday, May 3, 2013

May Update: Long Term Outlook

  • The Objective of Monthly Outlook is to look at long term prospects of Indian Stock market. It would also be helpful to investors, who buy and hold for long periods of time such as three years or more.
  • CNX Nifty opened at 5697.35 (5702.45) made a lower high of 5962.3(5971.2) made a lower low of 5477.2 (5604.85) and closed higher at 5930.2 (5682.55).
  • Volumes were about 6% lower than Average. Monthly CMF is 0.1, rebounding from zero.
  • The Monthly RSI reading is 58, coming off from a high of 61, which in turn was the highest since May 2011. The Monthly ADX reading is just 10. These readings imply weak trend.
  • The CNX Nifty Index would be trading sideways, as long as it is between 5530 and 6074. The short term mean is at 5805. As long as it is trading sideways, it will keep reversing towards short term mean. As long as it is closing above it's medium term average calculated using monthly data, that is 5250, it would have a positive bias.
  • In the Outlook for October 2012 it was observed, "The 5310 is an important level, if Nifty closes above this level, it could go to 5500 - 5680 - 5880 levels. Also it means that if Nifty closes above 5310 in September Closing, the Market Structure would change to buy every dip." Nifty achieved 5500, 5680, 5880 levels, since then. Now Nifty is quoting with a positive bias. The Bias would remain positive above 5710. The targets for upside are 6073 and 6133. Supports are 5917, 5823, 5740. And downside targets are 5635, 5569, 5511, 5415, 5360, 5180 -- if and only if -- Nifty trades below 5709.
  • The 5513 is a strong support, below which Nifty might turn extremely bearish.