Monday, January 28, 2013

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Mon 28 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6082.1 ( 57 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6088.4 ( 7 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6061.4 ( 46 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 6074.8 ( 0 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 113,113,004 ( -23% Lower than last trading session, and about -14.1% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -64.42% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 6.3 Points, and the body was equal to 7.3 and lower shadow was equal to 13.4.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6050 medium term average is 5890 and the long term average is at 5450. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 15.17, while previous close was 14.77, a change of 2.71% Higher than previous close. ATR was 54. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Mon 28 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 1.16, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.58. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -65.78, which is considered as Normal.

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Monday 28 Jan 2013 Volumes were Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 161,600,000. The MFI reading was 51.7 while previously it was 46.1. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 50.81 while at the end of previous trading session it was 43.99 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 26.88% while previously it was 26.79%.
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 28 Jan 2013 was 17,105,100 while previously it was 15,788,450 a change of 8.34% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 4.81% while previously it was -0.95% while the change in Open Interest was -5.98% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 8.27% while previously it was 6.46% while the change in Open Interest was 58.01%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 28 Jan 2013 was 125,108,550 while previously it was 123,069,200 a change of 1.66%. The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6100.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6200.00 Strike ( 14% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6100.00 Strike ( 15% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscAquarius315SatSatabhisaj3RahVen
      SunCapricorn285SatSravana2MonJup
      MonLeo128SunMagha3KetJup
      MarAquarius302SatDhanistha3MarVen
      MerCapricorn292SatSravana4MonSunCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenCapricorn270SatU.Asadha2SunRah
      SatLibra197VenSwati4RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra208VenVishakha3JupVen
      Ket(R)Aries28MarKrittika1SunMar
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius256JupP.Asadha1VenMon
    • Aspectarian
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunConjunctionMercury7.32124
      SunTrineJupiter3.0645
      SunSquareSaturn1.45-70
      SunSextileUranus3.535
      MoonOppositionMars5.31-116
      MoonSquareJupiter3.53-35
      MoonOppositionNeptune0.27-314
      MoonTrinePluto7.580
      MercuryConjunctionMars9.582
      MercurySquareSaturn5.48-4
      MarsConjunctionNeptune5.04237
      JupiterSextileUranus0.4890
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.2-20
      SaturnSextilePluto0.4581
      SaturnTrineAscendant7.521
      UranusSquarePluto4.53-7

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.039 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -8.6% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 3,068,356. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.1811. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
  • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Monday, 28-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 783.56 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 586.87 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 19305.05 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 121,481 Crores
    • DII
      As on Monday, 28-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -864.22 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -331.92 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -15374.81 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -70,799 Crores

  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty continues it's fifth wave of multiple time frames and or degrees. The expected targets are 6135 and 6195. Although this seems to be the most plausible scenario, but nothing could be said with great certainity and conviction as far as Stock Markets are concerned.
      2. Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a reversal yet. This week there is a chance, that a swing high might be made. Money could be made in 6100 Feb Puts.
      3. On Tuesday Nifty is likely to trade Flat to Positive in the opening session. Nifty might remain sluggish till 11:00 AM. The day's high-low range is expected to be 6135 to 6038. After 11 AM Nifty would be bearish below 6038 and Bullish above 6075. Nifty would be rangebound between 6038 and 6075.
      4. One could sell Nifty, if it goes upto 6135; 6195 Spot as Stop Loss, for targets of 6099, 6076. Or one could buy Nifty keeping 6017 as Stop Loss, for target of 6035, 6047. The entry point should be as close to SL as possible in order to keep the Risk to reward ratio favorable.
      5. The Stop Loss for Positional Longs is 6017 NIFTY Index Spot.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  • Price Action

  • S&P CNX Nifty opened this week at 6085.75 (5967.2) made a higher high of 6101.3 (6083.4) , and made a higher low of 6007.85 (5962.15). It closed at 6074.65 (6064.4) for the week.
  • The uptrend in the levels of S&P CNX Nifty is trying to maintain a slope of 45° for it's trend-line, as seen in stockcharts.com's non log charts. Another important point to be noted is that this trend line should be considered as breached below 5840. The ADX reading for the week is 25.16, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  • The RSI(14) is at 69.64 Remember it had crossed over to 70 level in the last week of Dec 2012, first time since Dec 2010. The W%R 29 is at -2.49. MACD has kissed it's signal line and turned up, and now ready to kiss again. All in all the momentum indicators are indicating strength but overbought.
  • Volume and Open Interest

  • The Volumes for this week were 14% above average. Volumes were exhibiting a distinct downtrend, implying that the market participation was gradually, but steadily shrinking. Most of the volume figures, if not all, are originating from Institutional and HNI Desks.
  • The OBV has surpassed all previous highs. And MFI is slowly approaching 60 levels. The CMF has entered a buy zone.
  • Advance-Decline ratio is at 1.69 as compared with 0.64 last week. On the back of average volumes, above unity market breadth, and Nifty breaching the high that was formed for last several months, signals onset of last leg of strength.
  • The True Range was 93.42 points! While ATR(14) is at 149 points. VIX closed at 14.77 up 6% from last week. It seems that VIX is in the process of forming a temporary bottom.
  • The Average Volumes in Derivatives was down by 2.5% as of that previous week. The OI in futures continues to be low since last few weeks, so much so that on Thursday the OI was lowest in 5 years. The PCR readings, have maintained a low profile, probably no smart investor wants to write puts in a C wave, with a ridiculously low level of 0.99 as compared to last weeks 0.96 This could indicate that Smart Money doesn't want to take a chance with writing puts. History repeats itself, although each time it leaves behind a scar.
  • Time

  • The Pars Fortunae for this week lies in 3 degree Leo as per KP Ayanamshas. This point is void of aspects! Sun Trine Jupiter, Jupiter sextile Uranus and square Neptune, and on 30 th of January begins it's direct motion. Also Jupiter conjuncts the Penumbral Eclipse Point in the Heavens above and when it starts moving forward would get conjunct with natal Venus of NSE in the first week of March. With both Saturn and Rahu approaching the natal Moon of NSE, it seems the National Stock Exchange needs a rescue plan. On 29th January 2013, 11 AM Moon is Conjunct with the Asc of NSE, implying at least a cut of 20 BPs by RBI! The intraday volatility this entire week, is likely to seem too much to a general observer! The key to make profits would be to trade with conviction - as both bulls and bears are gonna be rewarded. On 28th post lunch session could be marred by nervousness. 29th could be a celebration time, while some profit booking towards the close of 30th and/or opening of 31st. While a weak opening on 31st but does not look like a weak close. And on Friday Market could open with a Bang!
  • Inferences

  • As we are moving forward, trying to understanding the Subbunomics on the 29th we might see sharp reactions to whatever Subbu Sir, serves for a buffet. A crow returning from Delhi, en route to Haridwar told me that Subbu Sir is planning a cut of 20 BPs! So, Nifty would be trendless as long as it trades between 6100 and 5912, And around 6157 it might get overbought, and retest 6067, 6035, 6022, 6007. 5987 is a strong support on closing basis, and a breach of 5987 at any time during this week, would be the early sign of weakness.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Fri 25 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6024.5 ( -22 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6080.55 ( 15 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6014.45 ( 6 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 6074.65 ( 55 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 147,587,200 ( -20% Lower than last trading session, and about 11% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 50.75% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 5.9 Points, and the body was equal to 50.15 and lower shadow was equal to 10.05.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6050 medium term average is 5880 and the long term average is at 5450. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.46, while previous close was 13.67, a change of 5.78% Higher than previous close. ATR was 55. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Fri 25 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 1.58, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.21. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -88.95, which is considered as Over Sold

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Friday 25 Jan 2013 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 162,000,000. The MFI reading was 46.1 while previously it was 39.4. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 43.99 while at the end of previous trading session it was 46.22 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 26.79% while previously it was 30.35%.
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 25 Jan 2013 was 15,788,450 while previously it was 15,313,200 a change of 3.1% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was -0.95% while previously it was 0.35% while the change in Open Interest was -5.91% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 6.46% while previously it was 6.54% while the change in Open Interest was 52.08%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 25 Jan 2013 was 123,069,200 while previously it was 122,536,450 a change of 0.43% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6200.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6200.00 Strike ( 11.1% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6000.00 Strike ( 9.1% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscAquarius314SatSatabhisaj3RahMer
      SunCapricorn284SatSravana2MonJup
      MonCancer115MonAshlesha3MerRah
      MarAquarius302SatDhanistha3MarKet
      MerCapricorn291SatSravana4MonVenCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenSagittarius269JupU.Asadha1SunRah
      SatLibra197VenSwati4RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra208VenVishakha3JupVen
      Ket(R)Aries28MarKrittika1SunMar
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius256JupP.Asadha1VenSun
    • Aspectarian
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunConjunctionMercury6.48161
      SunTrineJupiter2.0454
      SunSquareSaturn2.43-54
      SunSextileUranus2.5450
      MoonOppositionMercury4.27-172
      MoonOppositionMars6.28-84
      MoonTrineMidheaven1.3373
      MercurySquareSaturn4.05-38
      MarsConjunctionNeptune5.5200
      JupiterSextileUranus0.589
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.22-20
      SaturnSextilePluto0.4581
      SaturnTrineAscendant6.397
      UranusSquarePluto4.53-7

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.0805 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 3,357,219. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.2483. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
  • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Friday, 25-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 586.87 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 1026.32 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 18521.49 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 120,697 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Friday, 25-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -331.92 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -752.26 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -14510.59 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -69,935 Crores .

  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty continues it's fifth wave of multiple time frames and or degrees. The expected targets are 6135 and 6195. Although this seems to be the most plausible scenario, but nothing could be said with great certainity and conviction as far as Stock Markets are concerned.
      2. The Stop Loss for Positional Longs is 6007 NIFTY Index Spot.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Friday, January 25, 2013

My Compliments!

I compliment the FII trading desks for this Brilliant move. Nobody can guess this move. (Except of course.) Noise traders are advised to take a break. Good to see some class after a loooooooooong time.

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Thu 24 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6046.2 ( -7 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6065.3 ( -5 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 6007.85 ( -14 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 6019.35 ( -35 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 185,210,189 ( 35% Higher than last trading session, and about 40.3% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 185.86% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 19.1 Points, and the body was equal to 26.85 and lower shadow was equal to 11.5.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6040 medium term average is 5880 and the long term average is at 5450. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.46, while previous close was 13.67, a change of 5.78% Higher than previous close. ATR was 55. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Thu 24 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 0.21, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.38. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -129.16, which is considered as Over Sold.

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Thursday 24 Jan 2013 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 158,100,000. The MFI reading was 39.4 while previously it was 47. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 46.22 while at the end of previous trading session it was 48.66 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 26.79% while previously it was 30.35%.
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 24 Jan 2013 was 15,313,200 while previously it was 15,814,350 a change of -3.17% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 0.35% while previously it was 11.18% while the change in Open Interest was -7.04% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 6.54% while previously it was 8.62% while the change in Open Interest was 22.55%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 24 Jan 2013 was 122,536,450 while previously it was 119,951,900 a change of 2.15%. The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6100.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6100.00 Strike ( 20.6% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5500.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6100.00 Strike ( -11.2% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscAquarius310SatSatabhisaj2RahSat
      SunCapricorn281SatSravana1MonMar
      MonGemini78MerArdra4RahMon
      MarCapricorn299SatDhanistha2MarSatExl
      MerCapricorn285SatSravana2MonSatCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenSagittarius265JupP.Asadha4VenKet
      SatLibra196VenSwati4RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra209VenVishakha3JupSun
      Ket(R)Aries29MarKrittika1SunRah
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius256JupP.Asadha1VenSun
    • Aspectarian
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunConjunctionMercury4.38271
      SunTrineJupiter1.0164
      SunSquareSaturn5.39-6
      SunSextileUranus0.02180
      MoonOppositionVenus7.33-78
      MoonTrineSaturn1.3158
      MoonOppositionPluto2.14-226
      MoonTrineAscendant1.32109
      MercuryTrineJupiter3.3750
      MercurySquareSaturn1.01-100
      VenusConjunctionPluto9.467
      MarsConjunctionNeptune8.0692
      JupiterSextileUranus0.5985
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.31-18
      SaturnSextilePluto0.4382
      SaturnTrineAscendant3.0225
      UranusSquarePluto4.54-7
      PlutoSextileAscendant3.451

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.0805 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 3,357,219. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.2483. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
  • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Thursday, 24-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 1026.32 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 802.62 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 17934.62 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 120,110 Crores .
    • DII
      As on Thursday, 24-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -752.26 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -852.33 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -14178.67 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -69,603 Crores.

  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty continues it's fifth wave of multiple time frames and or degrees. The expected targets are 6135 and 6195. Although this seems to be the most plausible scenario, but nothing could be said with great certainity and conviction as far as Stock Markets are concerned.
      2. Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a reversal yet. This week there is a chance, that a swing high might be made. Money could be made in 6100 Feb Puts.
      3. On Friday Nifty is likely to trade Flat to Positive in the opening session. Nifty might remain sluggish till 12:50 PM. The day's high-low range is expected to be 6067 to 6007. After 10 AM Nifty would be bearish below 6059 and Bullish above 6075. Nifty would be rangebound between 6059 and 6075. Bulls should be cautious after 14:50
      4. One could buy Nifty, keeping 6003 Spot as Stop Loss, for targets of 6028, 6038. Then Sell Nifty Futures, keeping 6076 as Stop Loss, for the targets of 6018, 6007, 5992. The entry point should be as close to SL as possible in order to keep the Risk to reward ratio favorable.
      5. The Stop Loss for Positional Longs is 6003 NIFTY Index Spot.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Wed 23 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6052.85 ( -28 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6069.8 ( -32 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 6021.15 ( -20 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 6054.3 ( 5 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 136,989,190 ( 6% Higher than last trading session, and about 6.6% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 32.22% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 15.5 Points, and the body was equal to 1.45 and lower shadow was equal to 31.7.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6050 medium term average is 5870 and the long term average is at 5440. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 13.67, while previous close was 13.89, a change of -1.58% Lower than previous close. ATR was 55. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Wed 23 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 0.38, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.38. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -97.36, which is considered as Over Sold.

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Wednesday 23 Jan 2013 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 145,600,000. The MFI reading was 47 while previously it was 53.3. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 48.66 while at the end of previous trading session it was 51.66 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 30.35% while previously it was 31.71%.
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 23 Jan 2013 was 15,814,350 while previously it was 16,173,050 a change of -2.22% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 11.18% while previously it was 8.74% while the change in Open Interest was -4.34% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 8.62% while previously it was 8.35% while the change in Open Interest was 14.13%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 23 Jan 2013 was 119,951,900 while previously it was 119,904,700 a change of 0.04%. The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6300.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6100.00 Strike ( 11.9% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike ( 10.7% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscAquarius312SatSatabhisaj2RahSat
      SunCapricorn280SatSravana1MonMon
      MonGemini66MerMrigasira4MarMon
      MarCapricorn298SatDhanistha2MarSatExl
      MerCapricorn284SatSravana2MonJupCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenSagittarius264JupP.Asadha4VenMer
      SatLibra196VenSwati4RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra209VenVishakha3JupMon
      Ket(R)Aries29MarKrittika1SunRah
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius256JupP.Asadha1VenSun
    • Aspectarian
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunConjunctionMercury3.56306
      SunTrineJupiter2.0355
      SunSextileUranus1.01136
      MoonTrineMars7.3213
      MoonSquareUranus4.51-34
      MoonTrineNeptune1.19207
      MercuryTrineJupiter1.5270
      MercurySquareSaturn2.42-66
      MercurySextileUranus2.5460
      VenusConjunctionPluto8.3346
      MarsConjunctionNeptune8.5155
      JupiterSextileUranus1.0283
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.34-18
      SaturnSextilePluto0.4382
      SaturnTrineAscendant1.531
      UranusSquarePluto4.54-7
      PlutoSextileAscendant2.337

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.2595 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 3,281,548. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.3489. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
  • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Wednesday, 23-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 802.62 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 1046.4 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 16908.3 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 119,084 Crores .
    • DII
      As on Wednesday, 23-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -852.33 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -855.35 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -13426.41 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -68,851 Crores .
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty continues it's fifth wave of multiple time frames and or degrees. The expected targets are 6135 and 6195. Although this seems to be the most plausible scenario, but nothing could be said with great certainity and conviction as far as Stock Markets are concerned.
      2. Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a reversal yet. This week there is a chance, that a swing high might be made. Money could be made in 6100 Feb Puts.
      3. On Thursday Nifty is likely to trade Flat to Negative in the opening session. Nifty might remain sluggish till 10:00 AM. The day's high-low range is expected to be 6099 to 6035. After 10 AM Nifty would be bearish below 6058 and Bullish above 6076. Nifty would be rangebound between 6058 and 6076. Any intra-day long created should be exited around 14:50 on Thursday.
      4. One could Short Nifty Futures, keeping 6101 S&P CNX Nifty Index Spot as Stop Loss, for targets of 6035, 6016 Spot. The entry point should be as close to SL as possible in order to keep the Risk to Reward ratio favorable.
      5. The Stop Loss for Positional Longs is 5998 NIFTY Index Spot.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Tue 22 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6080.15 ( -6 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6101.3 ( 6 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6040.5 ( -25 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 6048.5 ( -34 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 129,041,713 ( -1% Lower than last trading session, and about 0.9% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 4.27% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 21.15 Points, and the body was equal to 31.65 and lower shadow was equal to 8.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6040 medium term average is 5860 and the long term average is at 5440. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 13.89, while previous close was 13.66, a change of 1.68% Higher than previous close. ATR was 56. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Tue 22 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 0.38, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.84. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -77.96, which is considered as Over Sold.

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Tuesday 22 Jan 2013 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 141,000,000. The MFI reading was 53.3 while previously it was 60. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 51.66 while at the end of previous trading session it was 60.58 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 31.71% while previously it was 29.96% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Tuesday 22 Jan 2013 was 16,173,050 while previously it was 16,880,950 a change of -4.19% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 8.74% while previously it was 8.48% while the change in Open Interest was -6.06% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 8.35% while previously it was 7.93% while the change in Open Interest was 10.72%
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Tuesday 22 Jan 2013 was 119,904,700 while previously it was 120,279,650 a change of -0.31% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6300.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6200.00 Strike ( 3% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike ( 1.7% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      SunCapricorn278SatU.Asadha4SunVen
      MonTaurus42VenRohini1MonRahExl
      MarCapricorn297SatDhanistha2MarJupExl
      MerCapricorn280SatSravana1MonMonCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenSagittarius262JupP.Asadha3VenSat
      SatLibra196VenSwati4RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra209VenVishakha3JupMon
      Ket(R)Aries29MarKrittika1SunRah
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius256JupP.Asadha1VenSun
    • Aspectarian
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunConjunctionMercury3.14341
      SunTrineJupiter3.0645
      SunSextileUranus291
      MoonTrineMars3.3483
      MoonOppositionMidheaven1.58-141
      MercuryTrineJupiter0.0889
      MercurySquareSaturn4.22-33
      MercurySextileUranus1.14153
      VenusConjunctionPluto7.285
      MarsConjunctionNeptune9.3619
      JupiterSextileUranus1.0581
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.38-17
      JupiterSquareAscendant5.09-5
      SaturnSextilePluto0.4282
      SaturnTrineAscendant0.3937
      UranusSquarePluto4.54-7
      NeptuneConjunctionAscendant9.473
      PlutoSextileAscendant1.2113

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Lost against the INR by about -0.362 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 6.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 3,208,669. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.4898. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
  • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Tuesday, 22-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 1046.4 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 842.96 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 16105.68 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 118,281 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Tuesday, 22-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -855.35 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -890.17 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -12574.08 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -67,998 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty continues it's fifth wave of multiple time frames and or degrees. The expected targets are 6135 and 6195. Although this seems to be the most plausible scenario, but nothing could be said with great certainity and conviction as far as Stock Markets are concerned.
      2. Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a reversal yet. This week there is a chance, that a swing high might be made. Money could be made in 6100 Feb Puts.
      3. On Wednesday Nifty is likely to trade Flat to Positive in the opening session. Nifty might remain sluggish till 12:00 PM. The day's high-low range is expected to be 6099 to 6026. After 12 PM Nifty would be Bearish Below 6040, and Bullish Above 6075. Between 6040 and 6075 it would be rangebound
      4. If Nifty goes uptil 6105, then it might test 6075. conversly if Nifty trades below 6040 in the opening session it would test 6075 levels at some instance during the day.
      5. The Stop Loss for Positional Longs is 5992 NIFTY Index Spot.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Mon 21 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6085.75 ( 25 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6094.35 ( 10 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6065.1 ( 16 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 6082.3 ( 17 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 130,866,385 ( -30% Lower than last trading session, and about 2.4% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 11.27% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 8.6 Points, and the body was equal to 3.45 and lower shadow was equal to 17.2.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6040 medium term average is 5850 and the long term average is at 5430. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 13.66, while previous close was 13.89, a change of -1.66% Lower than previous close. ATR was 55. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Mon 21 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 0.84, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.64. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -54.87, which is considered as Normal

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Monday 21 Jan 2013 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 141,000,000. The MFI reading was 60 while previously it was 58.8. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 60.58 while at the end of previous trading session it was 54.99 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 29.96% while previously it was 28.68% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 21 Jan 2013 was 16,880,950 while previously it was 16,559,750 a change of 1.94% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 8.48% while previously it was 4.83% while the change in Open Interest was 1.07% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 7.93% while previously it was 6.95% while the change in Open Interest was 9.84%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 21 Jan 2013 was 120,279,650 while previously it was 117,810,500 a change of 2.1% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6400.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6200.00 Strike ( 0.5% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5900.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6100.00 Strike ( 1.8% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscAquarius308SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      SunCapricorn279SatU.Asadha4SunVen
      MonTaurus54VenMrigasira1MarRahExl
      MarCapricorn298SatDhanistha2MarSatExl
      MerCapricorn282SatSravana1MonRahCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenSagittarius263JupP.Asadha4VenSat
      SatLibra196VenSwati4RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra209VenVishakha3JupMon
      Ket(R)Aries29MarKrittika1SunRah
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius256JupP.Asadha1VenSun
    • Aspectarian
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunTrineMoon4.3158
      SunConjunctionMercury2.32376
      SunTrineJupiter4.0836
      SunSextileUranus2.5946
      MoonTrineMercury1.59128
      MoonConjunctionJupiter0.23377
      MoonSextileUranus1.32148
      MoonSquareNeptune5.04-26
      MoonSquareAscendant3.31-37
      MoonOppositionMidheaven8.55-2
      MercuryTrineJupiter1.3673
      MercurySextileUranus0.27195
      VenusConjunctionPluto6.07125
      JupiterSextileUranus1.0980
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.41-16
      JupiterSquareAscendant3.54-12
      SaturnSextilePluto0.4183
      SaturnTrineAscendant0.3237
      UranusSquarePluto4.54-7
      NeptuneConjunctionAscendant8.3517
      PlutoSextileAscendant0.0919

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Lost against the INR by about -0.073 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 4.2% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 3,012,932. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.6247. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
  • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Monday, 21-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 842.96 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 1165.69 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 15059.28 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 117,235 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Monday, 21-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -890.17 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -967.61 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -11718.73 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -67,143 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty continues it's fifth wave of multiple time frames. The expected targets are 6135 and 6195. Although this seems to be the most plausible scenario, but nothing could be said with great certainity and conviction as far as Stock Markets are concerned.
      2. Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a reversal yet. This week there is a chance, that a swing high might be made. Money could be made in 6100 Feb Puts.
      3. On Tuesday Nifty is likely to trade Flat to Positive in the opening session. Nifty might remain sluggish till 12:30 PM. The day's high-low range is expected to be 6105 to 6076 possibly 6038. Some profit booking is expected towards the end, .
      4. If Nifty goes uptil 6135, then it might test 6100. conversly if Nifty trades below 6076 in the opening session it would test 6100 levels at some instance suring the day.
      5. The Stop Loss for Positional Longs is 5987 NIFTY Index Spot.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  • Price Action

  • S&P CNX Nifty opened this week at 5967.2 (6042.15) made a higher high of 6083.4 (6042.15) , and made a higher low of 5962.15 (5940.6). It closed at 6064.4 (5951.3) for the week.
  • The uptrend in the levels of S&P CNX Nifty is trying to maintain a slope of 45° for it's trend-line, as seen in stockcharts.com's non log charts. Another important point to be noted is that this trend line should be considered as breached below 5825. The ADX reading for the week is 25.16, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  • The RSI(14) is at 69.33 Remember it had crossed over to 70 level in the last week of Dec 2012, first time since Dec 2010. The W%R 29 is at -1.81. MACD has kissed it's signal line and turned up, and now ready to kiss again. All in all the momentum indicators are indicating strength but overbought.
  • Volume and Open Interest

  • The Volumes for this week were 21% above average. Volumes were exhibiting a distinct downtrend, implying that the market participation was gradually, but steadily shrinking. Most of the volumes figure, if not all, is originating from Institutional and HNI Desks.
  • The OBV after surpassing it's previous swing high has made a lower high this week. And MFI is coming off from 80+ levels. The CMF has long been suggesting distribution at current levels.
  • Advance-Decline ratio is at 0.64 as compared with 0.31 last week. On the back of average volumes, below unity market breadth, and Nifty breaching the high that was formed for last several months, signals onset of last leg of strength. The range expansion was earlier registered on the lower side - and now on the higher side - although there was no significant volume activity, and volumes had been steadily declining.
  • The True Range was 132 points! While ATR(14) is at 153 points. VIX closed at 13.89 up 5% from last week. It seems that VIX is in the process of forming a bottom.
  • The Average Volumes in Derivatives was up by 17% as of that previous week. The OI continues to be low since last few weeks. The PCR readings, have maintained a low profile, probably no smart investor wants to write puts in a C wave, with a ridiculously low level of 0.96 as compared to last weeks 0.97 This could indicate that Smart Money doesn't want to take a chance with writing puts. History repeats itself, although each time it leaves behind a scar.
  • Time

  • The Pars Fortunae for this week lies in 12 degree Libra as per KP Ayanamshas. This point is conjunct with Saturn at 16 Li 46, and Trine with Asc at 5 Aqu 5. Mercury Trine Jupiter, Jupiter sextile Uranus, . Whereas Jupiter conjuncts the Penumbral Eclipse Point in the Heavens above. With Saturn exalted in Libra, and on the first day of the week. Except for 23 January 2013, the time seems to be on Bulls Side. There is a chance that the week's high could be made on Monday or Tuesday.
  • Inferences

  • Nifty would be trend-less as long as it trades between 6075 and 5875, And around 6135 it might get overbought, and retest 6089, 6065. 5987 is a strong support on closing basis, and a breach of 5940 at any time during this week, would be the early sign of weakness.

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Fri 18 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6059.85 ( 58 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6083.4 ( 30 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 6048.3 ( 60 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 6064.4 ( 25 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 186,460,701 ( 4% Higher than last trading session, and about 46.1% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 219.2% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 19 Points, and the body was equal to 4.55 and lower shadow was equal to 11.55.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6030 medium term average is 5850 and the long term average is at 5430. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 13.89, while previous close was 14.01, a change of -0.86% Lower than previous close. ATR was 57. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Fri 18 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 0.64, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.83. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -59.53, which is considered as Normal.

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Friday 18 Jan 2013 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 140,000,000. The MFI reading was 58.8 while previously it was 55.7. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 54.99 while at the end of previous trading session it was 51.43 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 29.96% while previously it was 28.68% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 18 Jan 2013 was 16,559,750 while previously it was 16,395,900 a change of 1% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 4.83% while previously it was 6.58% while the change in Open Interest was 0.11% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 6.95% while previously it was 7.81% while the change in Open Interest was 9.28%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 18 Jan 2013 was 117,810,500 while previously it was 116,260,900 a change of 1.33% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6200.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6300.00 Strike ( 11.7% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5900.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6000.00 Strike ( 11.4% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscAquarius305SatDhanistha4MarMon
      SunCapricorn277SatU.Asadha4SunKet
      MonTaurus30VenKrittika2SunRahExl
      MarCapricorn296SatDhanistha1MarJupExl
      MerCapricorn279SatU.Asadha4SunVenCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenSagittarius260JupP.Asadha3VenJup
      SatLibra196VenSwati4RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra209VenVishakha3JupMon
      Ket(R)Aries29MarKrittika1SunRah
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius255JupP.Asadha1VenSun
    • Aspectarian
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunTrineMoon6.1538
      SunConjunctionMercury1.52410
      SunTrineJupiter5.1126
      SunSextileUranus3.581
      MoonSquareMars4.26-51
      MercuryTrineJupiter3.1953
      MercurySextileUranus2.07104
      VenusConjunctionPluto4.53164
      JupiterSextileUranus1.1378
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.45-15
      JupiterSquareAscendant2.38-20
      JupiterOppositionMidheaven8.21-5
      SaturnSextilePluto0.483
      SaturnTrineAscendant1.4331
      UranusSquarePluto4.54-7
      NeptuneConjunctionAscendant7.2331
      PlutoSextileAscendant1.0315

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Lost against the INR by about -0.6963 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,891,674. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.7141. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
  • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Friday, 18-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 1165.69 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 564.2 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 14216.32 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 116,392 Crores .
    • DII
      As on Friday, 18-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -967.61 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -519.78 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -10828.56 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -66,253 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty continues it's fifth wave of multiple time frames. The expected targets are 6135 and 6195. Although this seems to be the most plausible scenario, but nothing could be said with great certainity and conviction as far as Stock Markets are concerned.
      2. Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a reversal yet. This week there is a chance, that a swing high might be made. Money could be made in 6100 Feb Puts.
      3. On Monday Nifty is likely to trade Flat to Positive in the opening session. The day's high-low range is expected to be 6116 to 6079. Some profit booking is expected after 11 AM.
      4. If Nifty goes uptil 6135, then it might test 6100. conversly if Nifty trades below 6076 in the opening session it would test 6100 levels at some instance suring the day.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Friday, January 18, 2013

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Thu 17 Jan 2013, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 6001.25 ( -48 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 6053.2 ( -3 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 5988.1 ( -4 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 6039.2 ( 37 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 178,954,867 ( 39% Higher than last trading session, and about 44.6% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 227.07% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 14 Points, and the body was equal to 37.95 and lower shadow was equal to 13.15.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 6010 medium term average is 5840 and the long term average is at 5430. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.01, while previous close was 13.99, a change of 0.14% Higher than previous close. ATR was 58. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Thu 17 Jan 2013, the Market Breadth was 0.83, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.27. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -53.06, which is considered as Normal .

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Thursday 17 Jan 2013 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 127,700,000. The MFI reading was 55.7 while previously it was 53.1. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 51.43 while at the end of previous trading session it was 51.92 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 28.68% while previously it was 28.48% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 17 Jan 2013 was 16,395,900 while previously it was 16,247,300 a change of 0.91% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 6.58% while previously it was 7.04% while the change in Open Interest was 0.09% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 7.81% while previously it was 8.25% while the change in Open Interest was 5.91%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 17 Jan 2013 was 116,260,900 while previously it was 113,703,000 a change of 2.25%. The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6200.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6100.00 Strike ( -5.6% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6000.00 Strike ( 21.3% ).

  • Time
    • Ephemeris
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      AscAquarius302SatDhanistha3MarKet
      SunCapricorn274SatU.Asadha3SunSat
      MonPisces354JupRevati3MerRah
      MarCapricorn294SatDhanistha1MarRahExl
      MerCapricorn274SatU.Asadha3SunSatCom
      Jup(R)Taurus42VenRohini1MonRah
      VenSagittarius257JupP.Asadha2VenMon
      SatLibra196VenSwati3RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Libra209VenVishakha3JupMon
      Ket(R)Aries29MarKrittika1SunRah
      UraPisces341JupU.Bhadrapada3SatMon
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius255JupP.Asadha1VenSun
    • Aspectarian
      SunConjunctionMercury0.08711
      MoonSextileMars0.43246
      MoonTrineMidheaven6.5313
      VenusSextileSaturn0.36187
      VenusConjunctionPluto1.14281
      JupiterSextileUranus1.2572
      JupiterSquareNeptune4.58-13
      JupiterSquareAscendant1.08-28
      JupiterOppositionMidheaven5.29-27
      SaturnSextilePluto0.3784
      SaturnTrineAscendant5.1314
      UranusSquarePluto4.53-7
      UranusTrineMidheaven6.544
      NeptuneConjunctionAscendant3.574

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Lost against the INR by about -0.1832 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.4% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,876,287. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.7576. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones exhibited weakness just ahead of the Fiscal Cliff, but now seems to be regaining some of the lost ground. In fact now it's still looking pretty weak in Weekly Charts. As long as it closes below 13000, it would continue to falter and might eventually fall to 12500, and then may be 12000 odd levels. On the other hand it has stiff resistance at 13650. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be negatively biased. DAX has breached it's upper range and around 7650 levels where it could have faced a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7650 it could touch 8000, for now it might trade sideways for a while. Nikkei has convincingly broken the 10250 level resistance. In fact it has breached the 70 level in RSI after a period of more than 3 years. Currently it has gotten overbought, and might trade sideways for a while before shooting up again. It has a solid support at around 9500 levels, and the next level of Resistance is around 10925 - 10950. So all in all except the US markets, all other look very very strongin the short to medium term.

  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Thursday, 17-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 564.2 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 1029.5 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 13050.63 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 115,226 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Thursday, 17-Jan-2013, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -519.78 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -691.76 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -9860.95 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -65,285 Crores .
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      1. Nifty begins it's fifth wave, for a possible targets of 6079 and 6147. Although most world indices look strong and there is no sign of any weakness as of now in the medium term charts, but nothing could be said with great certainty in stock markets.
      2. Nifty seems to be doing the 5th[v](?) Sub-Minuette Wave. As expected, 5965, was taken in a gap, so as to not allow an opportunity to DIIs to really sell anything at that level again!. The 5th Minuette is likely to range between 5825 and 6079/6147. If 5825 is breached, then it should be considered that either it is still doing 4th or the 5th has failed or truncated.
      3. Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a reversal yet.
      4. Tomorrow Nifty is likely to trade Flat to Positive in the opening session. Nifty might remain sluggish till 1:30 PM. The day's high-low range is expected to be 6090 to 6046. Some profit booking is expected towards the end, .
      5. If Nifty goes uptil 6100, then it might test 6064.


      Notes:

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.