Thursday, October 24, 2013

All about Elliott Wave Rules and Guidelines

Elliott Rules must be obeyed in every detail for a pattern to qualify as an Elliott Pattern (or wave). However, the Guidelines do not have to be obeyed. The more Guidelines obeyed by an Elliott pattern, the higher its rating or probability of being correct.

Impulse Rules:

An Impulse is a five Wave pattern labeled 1-2-3-4-5 moving in the direction of the larger trend. It is the most common Elliott Wave pattern.

  • Wave 1 must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
  • Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
  • No part of Wave 2 can more than retrace Wave 1.
  • Wave 2 must retrace Wave 1 by a minimum of 20%.
  • The maximum time for Wave 2 is nine times Wave 1.
  • Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
  • Wave 3 must be longer than Wave 2 in gross distance by price.
  • The gross price movement of Wave 2 must be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 1 or Wave 4 of Wave 1. The gross price movement of Wave 2 must also be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 3 or Wave 4 of Wave 3. Wave 2 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of the above 4 sub-Waves.
  • Wave 3 and Wave 1 cannot both have 5th Wave failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
  • Wave 3 cannot be less than 1/3 of Wave 1 by price.
  • Wave 3 cannot be more than 7 times Wave 1 by price.
  • Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave 3, its absolute maximum time limit is 7 times Wave 1.
  • Wave 4 can be any corrective pattern.
  • Waves 1, 2 and 4 cannot overlap except by 15% of Wave 2 with leveraged securities, and then only for a maximum of less than two days.
  • The gross price movement of Wave 4 must be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 3 or Wave 4 of 3. The gross price movement of Wave 4 must also be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 5 or Wave 4 of 5. The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of these four subwaves.
  • The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must be greater than 1/3 of the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
  • The gross movement by price for Wave 4 must be less than three times the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
  • Wave 3 and Wave 4 cannot both be failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
  • Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.
  • Wave 5 must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal. However, if Wave 5 is longer than Wave 3 by price, then Wave 5 must be an Impulse.
  • Wave 5 must move by price more than 70% of Wave 4. (This is not gross movement. Only consider the end points of both Waves.)
  • Wave 3 must never be shorter than both Wave 1 and 5, by either price distance or percentage price movement.
  • If Wave 5 is truncated, or contains an Impulse that is truncated, then neither Wave 3 nor Wave 4 can contain a subwave that is truncated. (A truncated pattern is where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4. This is also known as a failure.)
  • The maximum movement of Wave 5 is six times Wave 3 in both price and time.
  • Wave 5 has no minimum time constraint.

Impulse Guidelines:

  • Wave 1 can be a Leading Diagonal, but this is rare.
  • Wave 2 is usually a Zigzag based pattern.
  • Wave 2 usually takes a small amount of time compared to Wave 1. However, Wave 2 is usually takes more than 10% of the time taken by Wave 1.
  • Wave 2 generally retraces more than 30% of Wave 1 including internal data points.
  • Wave 2 will usually retraces less than 80% of Wave 1 .
  • The most likely retracement for Wave 2 is 50% or 61.8% of Wave 1.
  • The gross price movement of Wave 2 should be greater than the gross price movement of Waves 2 of 1, 4 of 1, 2 of 3 and 4 of 3.
  • If the gross movement of Wave 2 is between 33% and 40.3% retracement of Wave 1, it is most likely complete.
  • If the gross movement of Wave 2 has retraced to end of previous Wave 4 of 1, then it is most likely complete.
  • It is unlikely that Wave 3 will be shorter than Wave 1 by price.
  • The most likely price range for Wave 3 is between 1.5 and 3.5 times the price range of Wave 1.
  • Most likely range in time for Wave 3 is between 1 and 4 times the time taken by Wave 1.
  • Wave 4 is rarely a Zigzag based correction.
  • It is common for both Waves 4 & 2 to have approximately the same price movement.
  • Wave 4 will most often retrace more than 20% of Wave 3, including internal points.
  • Wave 4 will very often retrace about 38.2% of Wave 3.
  • Wave 4 does not often retrace Wave 3 by more than 50%.
  • Wave 4 will often retrace into the price territory of previous Wave 4 of Wave 1.
  • Wave 4 will most often retrace to the end of the previous Wave 4 of one lesser degree.
  • Waves 2 & 4 usually alternate between Zigzag and Flat. The other alternation is between a Triangle and a Flat.
  • Leveraged markets may at times overlap by up to 15% of Wave 2 by price.
  • The gross price movement of Wave 4 should be greater than the gross price movement of Waves 2 of 3, 4 of 3, 2 of 5 and 4 of 5.
  • Expect the time taken by Wave 4 to be between 100% - 270% of the time taken by Wave 2.
  • Wave 5 will usually move beyond the end of Wave 3.
  • When Wave 5 is extended (more than 161.8% longer than both Waves 1 and 3) a point within Wave 4 will often divide the entire Impulse Wave by 1.618.
  • If Wave 5 is extended (more than 161.8% longer than both Waves 1 and 3), it is common for its price length to be about 161.8% of the gross price length between the beginning of Wave 1 to end of Wave 3.
  • It is unusual for Wave 5 to travel a greater price or time percentage than Wave 3 traveled in its entirety.
  • The most likely price targets for Wave 5 are: 61.8% of Wave 1, 100% of Wave 1, 161.8% of Wave 1, 161.8% of the length from the beginning of Wave 1 to end of Wave 3.
  • If Wave 3 is about equal to 161.8% of Wave 1 by price, the most likely time for Wave 5 is about equal to the time taken by Wave 1.
  • One of the Impulse Waves (Waves 1, 3 or 5) generally extends (at least 162% times the next longest Impulse Wave).
  • The most likely Wave to extend is the 3rd Wave of an Impulse. However, in leveraged funds when the Impulse is rising and the degree is Primary or above, the most likely Wave to extend is Wave 5.
  • A non-extended 5th Wave of less than Primary degree usually has a lower peak volume than a third Wave. However, when the 5th Wave extends (less than Primary degree), Wave 5 has usually shows more volume.
  • Wave 5, when complete, usually has a lesser slope than Wave 3. However, in leveraged securities when the Impulse is rising and the degree is Primary or above, this is not usually the case.
  • Wave 5 is usually less than 4 times length of Wave 3 by time.

ZigZag Rules:

A ZigZag is a three wave structure labeled A-B-C, generally moving counter to the larger trend. It is the most common three wave Elliott pattern. Zigzags are corrective in nature.

  • Wave A must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
  • Wave B can only be a corrective pattern.
  • Wave B must be shorter than Wave A by price. All internal points are considered.
  • Wave B must be at least 20% of A by price.
  • Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must not exceed 10 times the time taken by Wave A.
  • Wave C must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal.
  • If Wave A is a Leading Diagonal, then Wave C must not be an Ending Diagonal.
  • Wave C must be longer than 90% of Wave B by price.
  • Wave C must be less than 5 times Wave B by price.
  • It is not allowable to have both Wave 5 of A a failure (Wave 5 is shorter then Wave 4) and Wave 5 of C a failure.
  • Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Wave A or B in price or time.

ZigZag Guidelines:

  • It is unusual for a Wave within Wave A to have a greater gross price movement than Wave A.
  • Wave B should end nowhere near beginning of Wave A
  • Wave B should retrace at least 30% of Wave A.
  • Wave B is most likely to retrace Wave A by about 38.2%.
  • Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 50%.
  • Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 61.8%.
  • The largest Wave in B is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A.
  • The time taken by Wave B is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of the time taken by Wave A.
  • Wave C is most likely to have a similar price length to Wave A.
  • The next most likely price lengths for Wave C are 61.8% and 161% of Wave A
  • The next most likely price length for Wave C is 61.8% of Wave A beyond the end of Wave A.
  • If Wave C is much longer than 161.8% of A, then the pattern is more probably the beginning of an Impulse than a Zigzag.
  • If Wave C is complete, and has a greater slope than Wave A, expect the Zigzag to extend to an Impulse.
  • Although Wave C should always be greater in price to Wave B, in rare cases Wave C can be up to 10% shorter than Wave B.
  • The largest Wave within C by price is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A.
  • The time taken by Wave C is usually between 61.8% of Wave A and 161.8% of the shortest Wave of A and B.

Flat Rules:

A Flat is a three wave pattern labeled A-B-C that moves generally sideways. It is corrective and counter-trend and is a very common Elliott pattern.

  • Wave A can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
  • Wave B can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
  • Wave B must retrace more than 70% of Wave A.
  • Wave B is less than twice the price movement of Wave A, including internal points of Wave B.
  • Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must be less than 10 times Wave A.
  • Wave C must be an Impulse or Ending Diagonal.
  • Wave C must share some common price territory with Wave A.
  • Wave C must be less than twice the longest of Waves A and B, including internal points of Wave C.
  • Wave C must be less the three times the price distance of Wave A.
  • Disallow back to back failures.
  • Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Waves A or B in price and time.
  • There is no minimum time constrains for Wave A.

Flat Guidelines:

  • Wave A is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave A is rarely an Expanding Triangle.
  • The largest Wave within Wave A is usually less than Wave A by price.
  • Wave B is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave B is rarely a Flat.
  • Wave B is usually greater than 95% of Wave A by price.
  • Wave B is usually less than 140% of Wave A by price.
  • The largest Wave within B is usually less than Wave A by price.
  • The time taken by Wave B is generally between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave A.
  • Wave C is rarely an Ending Diagonal.
  • Wave C is often about the same length as both Wave A and B.
  • Wave C often ends at point which is a percent of Wave A beyond end of Wave A equal to the same percentage away from the start of Wave A.
  • Wave C usually retraces a minimum of 100% of Wave B.
  • Wave C normally reaches to the end of Wave A
  • Wave C is not often more than 140% of the longer of Wave A or B.
  • If Wave C is longer than Wave B, then Wave C is often about 61.8% of A beyond end of A.
  • If Wave C is longer than Wave B, then Wave C is often about 161.8% of Wave A from end of Wave B by price.
  • The time taken by Wave C is generally between 61.8% of Wave 1 to 161.8% of the shortest of Waves A and B.

Diagonal Rules:

LD = Leading Diagonal, ED = Ending Diagonal

A Diagonal is a common 5 Wave Impulsive pattern labeled 1-2-3-4-5 that moves with the larger trend. Diagonals move within two channel lines drawn from Waves 1 to 3, and from Waves 2 to 4. A Diagonal must be contracting. There exist two types of Diagonals; Leading and Ending. They have a different internal structure and are seen in different positions within the larger degree pattern. Ending Diagonals are much more common than Leading Diagonals.

  • Wave 1 of a LD must be an Impulse or a LD.
  • Wave 1 of an ED must be a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
  • Wave 2 must be less than Wave 1 by price.
  • Wave 3 of a LD must be an Impulse.
  • Wave 3 of an ED must be a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave 3 must be greater than Wave 2 by price.
  • Wave 4 may be any corrective pattern.
  • Waves 2 and 4 must either overlap or be within 10% of length Wave 3 of doing so. All internal data points are considered.
  • The time taken by Wave 4 must be between 10% and 10 times the time taken by Wave 2.
  • Wave 5 of an ED must be a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave 5 of a LD must be an Impulse or ED.
  • If Wave 1 is a LD then Wave 5 cannot be an ED.
  • Wave 3 must not be shorter than both Waves 1 and 5.
  • Wave 5 must be at least 80% of Wave 4 by price.
  • Wave 5 is never the longest when compared with Wave 1 and Wave 3.
  • Wave 5 is always less than Wave 3 by price.
  • The intersection of the channel lines must be beyond the end of the pattern.
  • Diagonals must move within the two channel lines or be within 10% of gross movement.
  • Channel lines must converge, slope in the same direction and neither be horizontal.
  • The maximum number of pattern lengths into the future that the channel lines intersect is 4.
  • The minimum time for Wave 5 is 10% of Wave 4. The maximum time for Wave 5 is 5 times Wave 3.

Diagonal Guidelines:

  • Wave 1 of a LD is usually an Impulse, but in rare cases may be a LD.
  • Wave 2 is usually ZigZag family pattern.
  • Generally Wave 2 is greater than 35% of Wave 1's gross price movement.
  • Wave 4 is commonly a Zigzag.
  • It is rare that at least either Waves 2 or 4 of an ED is not a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Generally Wave 4 is greater than 35% of Wave 3's gross price movement.
  • The end points of Waves 1 and 4 generally overlap.
  • Expect the time taken by Wave 4 to be between 20% and 5 times Wave 2.
  • Wave 5 is usually greater than Wave 4 by price.
  • It is typical for Wave 5 of a LD to end before reaching the channel line.
  • It is typical for Wave 5 of an ED to exceed the channel line.

Triangle Rules:

CT = Contracting Triangle, ET = Expanding Triangle

A Triangle is a common 5 Wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from Waves A to C, and from Waves B to D. A Triangle is either Contracting or Expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Expanding Triangles are rare.

  • Wave A of a CT is always either a Zigzag based pattern or a Flat. Wave A of an ET can only be a Zigzag based pattern.
  • Within Wave A of a CT, Wave B must be less than 105% of Wave A's price length. The same rule applies for Waves C and D of the CT.
  • Wave B must be a Zigzag based pattern.
  • Wave C of a CT can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. Wave C of an ET must be a Zigzag based pattern.
  • Wave B of a CT must retrace Wave A by 50%.
  • For a CT, Wave C must be less than Wave B by price and Wave C must be greater than or equal to 50% of Wave B by price.
  • For an ET, Wave B must be less than Wave C by price and Wave B must be greater or equal to 50% of Wave C by price.
  • Wave D of a CT can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. Wave D of an ET must be a Zigzag based pattern.
  • Wave B, C and D must not move more than 10% beyond the A-C & B-D channel lines (based on the length of Wave C).
  • In an ET, Wave C must be less than Wave D by price and Wave C must be more than 50% of Wave D by price.
  • In an ET, Wave A must move within the A-C channel or pass through it by no more than 10% of the length of Wave B by price.
  • In an CT, Wave D must be less than Wave C by price and Wave D must be greater than or equal to 50% of Wave C by price.
  • The intersection of the channel lines must occur beyond the end of a CT, and before the beginning of an ET.
  • The channel lines must either converge or diverge. They cannot be parallel.
  • Wave D of a CT must not end such that when retraced 25% by E, E will not reach the price territory of A.
  • Only one channel line in a CT may be horizontal. Neither channel line of an ET can be horizontal.
  • The maximum time for Wave D is 4 times Wave C.
  • Wave E of a CT can either be a CT or a Zigzag family pattern. For an ET, Wave E must be a Zigzag based pattern.
  • In an ET, Wave E must be greater than Wave D by price and Wave D must be greater or equal to 50% of Wave E by price.
  • In an ET, either Wave A or B will be the shortest Wave in the pattern.
  • In a CT, Wave E will be less than Wave D by price and Wave E will be greater than or equal to 25% of Wave D by price.
  • In a CT, either Wave A or B will be the longest Wave in the pattern.
  • In a CT, the maximum time for Wave E is 4 times Wave C.
  • Wave E must end in the price territory of A.
  • Wave E must not pass through the B-D line, or if it does, by no more than 10% of the length of Wave D.
  • The maximum number of pattern lengths into the future that the channel lines intersect is 6.

Triangle Guidelines:

  • Wave A is usually a zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave B is usually a zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave C is often a zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave C usually takes more time than any other Wave in the pattern.
  • Wave D is usually a zigzag family pattern.
  • Waves B, C and D rarely move outside the B-D line.
  • Waves A, B, C and E rarely move outside the A-C line.
  • Wave E is usually a zigzag family pattern or the same type of Triangle as the larger pattern.
  • Usually at least two Waves travelling in the same direction will relate by about 61.8%.
  • It is common for two or more adjacent Waves will be related by 61.8%.
  • In a CT, Wave E normally retraces Wave D by about 70%.

Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:

Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.

  • Wave W must be a Zigzag.
  • Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
  • Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
  • Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
  • Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
  • The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
  • Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
  • Wave Y must be a Zigzag
  • Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
  • Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
  • Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
  • Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
  • Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
  • Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
  • Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
  • Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
  • The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
  • Wave Z must be a Zigzag
  • Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
  • Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
  • Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.

Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:

  • The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
  • Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
  • Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
  • Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
  • Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
  • Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
  • The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
  • The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
  • Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
  • Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
  • Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
  • Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
  • Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
  • Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
  • Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
  • Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
  • The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
  • Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
  • Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
  • The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.

Double and Triple Sideways Rules:

Double (D3) and Triple (T3) Sideways patterns are similar to Flats, and are typically two or three corrective patterns strung together with a joining Wave, called an x Wave, and are all corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Doubles are labeled w-x-y, while Triples are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double 3 is illustrated below.

  • Wave W may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple.
  • Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
  • Wave X may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple.
  • The minimum X Wave retracement is 70% of Wave W.
  • The maximum price distance of Wave X is 150% of both the previous Wave and ensuing Wave. All internal data points are considered.
  • Although there is no minimum time for Wave X, the maximum time is 10 times the time taken by Wave W.
  • Wave Y may be any corrective pattern except double, triple or a Triangle in a Triple Zigzag. However, Wave Y cannot be a Zigzag if Wave W is a Zigzag.
  • Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price, except if Wave Y is a Triangle.
  • Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
  • Wave Y must be no more than 5 times either Wave X or W in price and time.
  • Wave Y has no minimum time constraint.
  • Wave XX may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple.
  • The minimum Wave XX retracement is 70% of Wave Y.
  • The maximum Wave XX retracement is 150% of previous Wave and ensuing Wave. All internal data points are considered.
  • Wave Z may be any corrective pattern except double or triple. However Wave Z cannot be a Zigzag if Y is a Zigzag.
  • Wave Z is greater than or equal to XX by price.
  • Wave Z must be no more than 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in price and time.
  • Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
  • If Wave Y is greater than Wave W by price, then the maximum Wave Z price movement is twice the price movement of Wave W.

Double and Triple Sideways Guidelines:

  • The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
  • Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
  • The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than Wave W by price.
  • Wave X is usually less than 140% of W by price.
  • Wave X is usually greater than 95% of Wave W by price.
  • The most likely retracement for Wave X is 110% of Wave W.
  • Time for X is generally between 62% of W1 and 1.618 of the time of W1.
  • If Wave Y is a Triangle, the most likely length of Wave Y is about 61.8% of Wave W. If Wave Y is not a Triangle, the most likely lengths for Wave Y are 100% of Wave W, 161.8% of Wave W and 10% of the length of Wave W beyond the end of Wave W.
  • The largest Wave in Wave Y is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
  • Wave Y is usually less than twice the longest of Wave W and Wave X in price.
  • Wave Y is generally between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of Wave W in time.
  • Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
  • The largest Wave in Wave XX is usually less than Wave Y in price.
  • Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
  • Wave XX is usually greater than 95% of Y by price.
  • The most likely retracement for Wave XX is 110% of Wave Y.
  • If Wave Y is a Triangle, most likely length by price is 61.8% of Wave W. If Wave Y is not a Triangle, then the most likely lengths are 100% of Wave W, 161.8% of Wave W and 10% of length of Wave W beyond the end of Wave W, all by price.
  • The largest wave in Wave Z is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
  • Wave Z is usually less than twice the longest of Wave Y and Wave XX.


Monday, October 21, 2013

Learn Elliott Wave Theory in 10 minutes


“Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost & Prechter - 10th Ed. (2005)

Additionally, over a period of time, I’ve inserted several pointers from reading and/or viewing numerous Elliott Wave educational materials presented by Wayne Gorman, Jeffrey Kennedy, Dave Allman, Dan Esconi, Rich Swannell, and others.

Chapter 1 – The Broad Concept:
The Basics:

· Ralph Nelson Elliott’s (1871-1948) Wave Principle states that repetitive forms (waves) within the financial markets are generated by man’s social nature/mass psychology, which is keyed to a mathematical law of nature, which is expressed by the Fibonocci sequence, and more specifically, the golden ratio (.618 & its inverse, 1.618). These forms/waves grow and decay independent of news.
· Progress (referred to in “Elliott” as motive & actionary waves) occurs in 5 waves, of which waves 2 and 4 are countertrend interruptions. Regress (corrective/reactionary waves) occurs in 3 waves, with wave 2 being an interruptive wave. The complete advance and decline cycle is therefore 8 waves.
· The basic 8 wave form is fractal in nature. It is operating at all degrees (chart timeframes) simultaneously. See the Elliott Wave labeling system (p.27).
· In most impulses there is a 5-wave pattern which unfolds adhering to the following rules:
- subwave 2 does not overlap the start of wave 1.
- subwave 4 does not overlap the extreme of wave 1. Also, as a strong guideline, it is not advisable to assign a wave 4 label if there is any overlap of the territory of wave 1 thru 2.
- subwave 3 is not the shortest of 1, 3 & 5
· Impulses are typically bound by parallel lines (p.30)
· In impulses, one of waves 1, 3 or 5 will likely extend substantially in comparison to the other two. In the stock market, wave 3 is most likely to extend, whereas in commodities, wave 5 is the more likely to extend.
· Rarely, a wedge shaped diagonal appears as wave 1, A, 5 or C. It is sometimes referred to as a diagonal triangle. In a diagonal, both trendlines slope/tilt in same direction (both up or both down). Most often, the trendlines lines converge (get closer together) as they extend. Sometimes the diverge (get further apart with time).
· Corrective waves come in 3 basic variations:
o zigzag (5-3-5)
o flat (3-3-5)
o triangle (3-3-3-3-3)
· Corrective waves can combine into more complex combinations labeled W-X-Y or W-X-Y-X-Z.
· In impulses, wave 2 & 4 nearly always alternate in form, one being of the sharp (zigzag or zigzag combo) family, and the other being of the sideways (flat, triangle or mixed combo) family.
· Each wave label exhibits a unique personality, characterized by volume, momentum, and sentiment.

· Sometimes the pattern’s end differs from the associated price extreme. Always label and draw trendlines & fibonacci’s correctly by using the orthodox (labeled) end of waves.

Impulse Waves:
  • Extension: in impulses, usually just one of waves 1, 3 or 5 extend. Wave 3 is the most likely to extend. Rarely, both 3 and 5 extend. Extensions can occur within extensions. For instance 3 of 3. Sometimes, at the end of an impulse in which one of the waves extended, there are 9 total waves, and it is difficult to determine which wave extended. There also can be extensions within extensions. 5 in extension manifests itself as 9, 13, 17, etc. 3 in extension can appear as a 7, 11, 15, etc. If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to extend, especially if volume is greater in the 5th than the 3rd.
  • Truncation: when the 5th wave does not reach beyond the 3rd wave. Occurs most often after a particularly strong 3rd wave. The wave 5 must still contain the necessary 5 subwaves. The message truncations send is that there is tremendous pressure to start the new trend. Expect big moves after truncations.
  • Diagonal: subdivides 3-3-3-3-3. Notated with digits 1-5. Signals an imminent major trend reversal.
    • An ending contracting diagonal appears at the termination point of larger movements, most often as wave 5, and rarely as wave C. An expanding diagonal has only occurred only once in the stock market. Wave 5 often over-shoots, and upon rare occasion, falls short of its resistance trendline. If it does fall short, the reversal will be more severe. Ending diagonal triangles indicate exhaustion of a larger pattern that moved too far too fast. Ending diagonals are usually followed by a quick thrust which retraces to the starting level of the diagonal.
    • A leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) occasionally appears in the wave 1 (or A of zigzags) position. There are 2 only historical instances where there was a diagonal triangle Type II which sub divided 5-3-5-3-5, in which case is was a wave A of a zigzag ABC bear market rally that was preceded and followed by strong downward movements. Beware: what appears to be a leading diagonal is usually a 1-2-1-2 instead. Leading diagonals are typically deeply retraced, and if in wave 1 position, are typically followed by a zigzag retracement of 78.6%.
    • Wave 3 is never a diagonal.
  • Most Typical Impulse Fibonacci Ratios/Multiples (from Chapter 4: Ratio Analysis):
    • If wave 1 is extended, expect the net of wave 2-5 to be .618 x wave 1
    • Wave 2 = 618 or .5 x wave 1
    • If wave 3 is extended waves 1 and 5 tend toward equality, or a .618 relationship is next most likely.
    • Wave 3 = 1.618 or 2.618 x wave 1
    • Wave 4 = .382 x wave 3
    • Wave 4 (net) typically relates to its corresponding wave 2 (net) by a Fibonacci ratio.
    • Wave 5 = to wave 1, or .618 or .382 x the net of waves 1 thru 3.
    • If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to be 1.618 x the net of 1-3.
    • The time to complete waves 1 thru 3 = the time to complete the end of 3 to the end of 5.
Corrective Waves:
  • Corrective wave are more varied than impulse waves, contain choppy overlapping waves, and are more difficult than impulses to count correctly in real-time. They are generally not high-confidence areas in which to make predictions. Avoid things that can hurt you!
  • Corrective waves are never 5’s.
  • An initial 5-wave move against the larger trend is never the end of the correction, only a part of it.
  • Corrective moves come in two styles, which almost always alternate in waves 2 & 4:
    • Sharp: steeply angled, made up of a zigzag, or double or triple zigzag. Usually .618 or .500.
    • Sideways: horizontal in nature. Consists of a flat, a triangle, a double three, or a triple three. Triangles never appear alone as wave 2. The final move of sideways corrections always “correct” the extreme of the preceding wave by at least one pip., and typically contain a movement back to or beyond its starting level, often creating a new high or low during the phase.
  • Corrective patterns fall into 3 categories:
  • Zigzag (5-3-5) sharp. Most common in wave 2’s. If the 1st zigzag doesn’t retrace sufficiently, there may be a double or triple zigzag. Wave B will not surpass the origin of A. C moves well beyond the extreme of A. Zigzag and double and triple zigzags produce a persistent move against the larger trend.
  • Flat (3-3-5) sideways. Most common in wave 4’s. There are 3 types:
    • Regular Flat: B terminates near the start of A. C terminates slightly beyond the end of wave A.
    • Expanded (Irregular) Flat: (actually far more common than reg. flat). B terminates beyond the start of A, and C ends more substantially beyond the end of wave A. Bear market expanded flats may be referred to as an inverted expanded flat.
    • Running Flat: (very rare). B terminates well beyond the start of A, but C falls short of the end of wave A. BEWARE: if B breaks down into 5 waves, it is more likely a wave 1 of an impulse of the next higher degree. A Running Flat (sometimes referred to as an Irregular Flat – Type II by Prechter) essentially exhibits a failure (truncation) in wave c, and although rare, usually appears as a wave 2, because wave 3 just can’t wait to get underway.
  • Triangle (3-3-3-3-3) sideways. Triangle waves are notated with letters A through E, and consist of 5 overlapping waves. Indicate a triangle on your chart by drawing trendlines connecting A & C, and B & D. Triangles take up a lot of time. Wave E will likely over or under-shoot the trendline. If E overshoots, it cannot surpass the extreme of C. If it does, it is not an E wave in a triangle. At wave E’s end, all triangles affect at least a one pip corrective result from the end of the preceding wave (wave 3, for instance). There is usually a post-triangle terminal thrust from the extreme of E equal to the width of the trendlines at the starting point of the triangle. Most subwaves are zigzags, although wave C is often a more complex double zigzag. One of the subwaves (usually E) can itself be a triangle, which results in labeling of A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-I. Triangles always occur in a position prior to the final wave in the pattern of one larger degree, most often wave 4 of an impulse, but also B of an ABC, or the final X in a double or triple three. A triangle may also occur as the final actuary pattern in a corrective combination. Triangles never appear alone as wave 2. If wave B makes a new high or low, it is called a running triangle. There are 3 types of triangles:
    • Contracting – the upper trendline is sloping down, the other up. (If B overshoots A, it’s called a running contracting triangle).
    • Barrier (either the upper or lower line is virtually horizontal). The horizontal line will be the line that will be broken after the E wave is complete.
    • Expanding ( the upper & lower trendlines diverge, the upper sloping up, the other down). Wave E must move beyond the extreme of C in Expanding Triangles.
  • There can be combinations of corrective patterns. Combinations are generally horizontal in nature. Each pattern within the combination is connected by a 3-wave corrective movement (most often a zigzag) labeled X. Each “three” in combinations can be a zigzag or flat. Triangles only appear as the final wave in combinations. The forms generally alternate. There is never more than one zigzag or triangle in a combination. The two types of corrective combinations are:
    • Double three (labeled W-X-Y). Extends the duration of the correction.
    • Triple three (labeled W-X-Y X-Z) (rare). Extends the duration even further.
  • If there are a number of similar waves in a row that are difficult to label, remember that a double zigzag will have 7 waves, and triple zigzag has 11.
  • Sometimes volume spikes at the end of corrections, but more often it drops off.
Chapter 2 – Guidelines of Wave Formation:
(Guidelines aren’t rules, they guide to what is probable)

Alternation: (expect a difference in the next expression of a similar wave):
  • If wave 2 is sharp, expect wave 4 to be sideways, and vice versa, except inside triangles, where alternation of 2 & 4 does not occur.
  • If wave 2 is sideways, a triangle can appear as wave 4 and still fulfill alternation, but this less likely. (Triangles alternate with everything else).
  • If wave 2 is simple, expect wave 4 to be a complex combination, and vice versa.
  • One of the 2 corrective waves within an impulse will likely retrace the entire last impulse (of one lesser degree?), the other will not.
  • Extension is an expression of alternation. Typically wave 1 is short, 3 long, and 5 short. If wave 1 is extended, 3 and 5 will likely not be extended. If 1 and 3 are not, 5 will likely be.
  • Within corrective ABC waves, if A is a flat, expect B to be a zigzag and vice versa. If A is simple, expect B to be a more complex combination, and C even more complex, or, the complete reverse: most complex-complex-simple, although this is not as common as increasing complexity.
  • Rich Swannell, in his Elite Trader Secrets book contends that alternation only takes place 61.8% of the time. He contends that the culprit causing this somewhat low percentage is that when wave 2 is sideways, there is a 78% chance that wave 4 will be sideways as well!! In his 20 years of research, this is the only significant statistical anomaly he found comparing realtime analysis to Elliot’s original guidelines.
Depth of Corrective Waves:
  • Corrections (especially 4th waves) tend to retrace to within the span of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.
  • If the 1st wave of a sequence extends, the correction following the 5th wave of the sequence will retrace no further than the extreme of wave 2 of a lesser degree (wave 2 of the 5th).
  • After 5th wave extensions, the ensuing correction will likely be sharp and swift, and will end near the extreme of wave 2 of the extension. This does not apply when the market is ending a 5th wave simultaneously at more than one degree.
Wave Equality:
  • 2 of the motive waves in a 5-wave sequence tend toward equality in time and magnitude. If equality is lacking, a .618 relationship in next most likely. Usually wave 3 is extended, so wave 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in amplitude and duration.
  • Waves A and C of a correction tend toward equality. C = 1.618 x A is next most likely.
Channeling:
  • A parallel trend channel typically marks the upper and lower boundaries of impulse waves.
  • When wave 3 ends. Connect 1 & 3, and place a parallel line thru 2. This provides an estimated boundary for wave 4. When wave 4 ends, connect 2 & 4, and place a parallel line thru 3. This will forecast the end of wave 5. If wave 4 moves out of the channel, expect wave 5 to be a throw-over. (WG) Alternative method for projecting the end of wave 5: if wave 3 is abnormally strong (vertical) and wave 4 is sideways, connect 2 and 4, and draw a parallel line that intersects the extreme of wave 1. This will project the end of wave 5.
  • Trendlines can also help with zigzags. Connect the origin of A with point B, and place a parallel line through point A. This will project the end of C. (Wayne Gorman)
  • Remember: It’s not over until wave 5 of 5 of 5 is finished. The wave count takes precedence over channel lines and projected Fibonacci targets.
  • Wave 5’s can “throw-over” or “throw-under”, depending on volume. During a “throw-over”, it is difficult to identify waves of smaller degrees, as channels lines are penetrated.
Volume:
  • Late in a corrective phase, a decline in volume often indicates a decline in selling/buying pressure, and coincides with a turning point in the market.
  • Of the impulse waves, 3rd waves almost always exhibit the greatest volume. If volume during the 5th wave is as high as the 3rd, expect an extended 5th wave.
  • Volume during corrective patterns will generally dry up during triangles and combinations, and will climax during A waves, and during wave 3 of C.
The “Right Look”
· If wave 4 terminated well above the top of wave 1 in a 5-wave move, it must be labeled as an impulse.
· It is extremely dangerous to accept a wave count that represents disproportionate wave relationships or a misshapen pattern.
· The right look may not be evident at all degrees of trend simultaneously, so focus on the degrees that are the clearest.
· You need short term charts to analyze subdivisions in fast moving markets, and long term charts for slowly moving markets.
· When re-working your count, always start from a significant bottom. (WG)
· Movements with the larger trend subdivide into 5. Movements against the larger trend subdivide into 3. (DA)
· The belief that there is only one direction the market can take, and the refusal to consider alternatives is a recipe for trouble. (DA)

· Its not over until the 5th of the 5th of the 5th of the 5th is complete. Confirmation that a trend change has occurred of a certain degree comes with a 5-wave move of one lesser degree in the opposite direction.

Wave Personality:
  • At times, more than one wave count is admissible, making wave personality invaluable in determining the preferred count:
  • 1st Waves: unfold in a 5-wave impulse. Part of a basing process. “Maybe we’ll actually survive this after all.” Most, however do not believe that the trend has changed.
  • 2nd Waves: unfold in a 3-wave corrective fashion, and usually deeply retrace wave 1. The masses are convinced that the old trend is still in force, and pessimism is even worse than the origin of 1. “Here we go again.” Wave 2’s end up exhibiting low volume/volatility, with sentiment (the put/call ratio) at its low. Wave 2’s provide a great trading opportunity!
  • 3rd Waves unfold as a 5, and are strong, broad, and steep. Optimism returns. Economic fundamentals improve. At about the middle of wave 3, there is mass recognition that a new trend is underway. This is when volatility is at its highest. MACD will usually confirm wave 3 peaks.
  • 4th Waves unfold as a 3, and are predictable in depth and form due to alternation from the 2nd wave. They are very likely sideways affairs, and are building a base for the final 5th wave. They are accompanied by a surprising disappointment because the advance did not continue.
  • 5th Waves unfold as a 5, and are less dynamic than wave 3’s, unless the wave 5 is an extension. Volume is less than wave 3, but optimism/pessimism is at its highest, although fundamentals aren’t as good. Wave 5’s are typically accompanied by MACD divergence. FYI: wave 5’s in commodities are stronger than wave 3’s, and are driven by fear.
  • A Waves unfold as 5’s if the beginning of a zigzag, or 3’s if the beginning of a flat or triangle. Arrogance and complacence is lingering. Most are convinced that it is just another pullback before the larger trend continues, although they are often sharp, and can retrace more than the previous impulse wave. A waves following extensions on commodities are often crashes. A waves do not kill the hopes associated with the old trend though. MACD will be deeper at the end of A waves than it was during the previous waves 2 or 4.
  • B Waves unfold as 3’s, and are sucker plays, especially in expanded/irregualar flats. The masses believe the up trend has resumed. Wave B’s are usually zigzags, and the next most likely is a triangle.
  • C Waves unfold as 5’s (unless part of a triangle, or rarely a diagonal), and are strong like a wave 3. The illusions held through A and B quickly evaporates into fear. Near the end of C, the corrective phase will be widely mistaken for a new overall trend.
  • D Waves are 3’s are accompanied by expanding volume, and are phonies, like wave B’s.
  • E Waves are 3’s, and are often mistaken as a kickoff of a new trend (because of the typical throw-over). News often coincides with the overshoot, and caused the masses to join the wrong side of the trade at the worst moment.
  • X Waves connect corrective waves into combinations, and consist of any type of 3 wave corrective structure, but are most often a zigzag. An X, being a 3 wave move, signals that the correction is not over yet.
Fibonacci Relationships (from Chapter 4: Ratio Analysis):
  • Fibonacci relationships of waves moving in the same direction are more important than Fibonacci retracements.
  • The most typical corrective Fibonacci Ratios are:
    • In a zigzag, C = A, or 1.618 x wave A, or .618 x wave A (in that order)
    • In a regular flat, A, B & C are each nearly equal
    • In an expanded flat, B = 1.236 or 1.382 x A
    • In an expanded flat, C = 1.618 x A (very common!) Sometimes C will overshoot A by .618 x A.
    • In a contracting triangle, B = .618 x A, C – .618 X B, and D = .618 x C.
    • In an extremely rare expanding triangle, the ratio is 1.618.
    • In double and triple corrections, the net travel of one simple pattern related to the next by equality, or if one of the 3’s is a triangle, by .618.
  • Rich Swannell’s research showed that stock market wave 2’s are most likely to retrace wave 1 by 38.2%, and are about twice as likely to retrace 38.2% than 61.8%. 2nd waves are widely varied in the percentage that they retrace.
  • Wave 4 retracements of wave 3 are generally more predictable. A .382 retracement is most common, and as little as a .236 is next, especially if it is a wave 4 of larger wave 3. Also, wave 4’s very often retrace to the about the end of the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree, for instance wave 4 of a larger wave 3.
  • The 5th wave, if the longest, typically travels 1.618 the distance of from the start of wave 1 thru the end of wave 3.
  • Wave 3 will often be 1.618 x the length of wave 1. 2.618 is also common.
  • Wave 5 will often be equal to wave 1 if wave 3 is extended.
  • Prechter, despite mighty efforts, has not been able to produce anything useful as far as Fibonacci time relationships. Check out Corolyn Boroden or Glenn Neely’s work for that.
Percentage Retracements and Extentions (from Rules and Guidelines – p. 86-91)
  • In a diagonal, waves 2 & 4 each usually retrace .66 to .81 of the preceding wave.
  • In a zigzag, wave B typically retraces 38-79 percent of wave A.
  • In a zigzag, if wave B is a running triangle, it will typically retrace 10 to 40 percent of wavc A.
  • In a zigzag if wave B is a zigzag, it will typically retrace 50 to 79 percent of wave A.
  • In a zigzag, if wave B is a triangle, it will typically retrace 38 to 50 percent of wave A
  • In a flat, wave B must retrace at least 90 percent of wave A. This is a rule.
  • In a flat, wave B usually retraces between 100 and 138 percent of wave A.
  • In a flat, wave C is usually 100 to 165 percent as long as wave A.
  • In a flat, when wave B is more than 105 percent as long as wave A, and wave C ends beyond the end of wave A, the formation is called an expanded flat.
  • In an expanding triangle, subwaves B, C, and D each retrace at least 100 percent but no more than 150 percent of the previous subwave. This is a rule.
  • In an expanding triangle, subwaves B, C, and D usually retrace 105 to 125 percent of the preceding subwave.
Memorable Quotes from Chapter 3 – Historical and Mathematical Background:
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” – Sherlock Holmes
“Trading with Elliott Wave Principle helps you remain both flexible and decisive, both defensive and aggressive, depending on the demands of the situation.”
“The Elliott Wave principle is a means of first limiting the possibilities, and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths.”
“Because applying the Wave Principle is an exercise in probability, the ongoing maintenance of alternative wave counts is an essential part of using it correctly.”

“Of course, there are often times when, despite a rigorous analysis, there is no clearly preferred interpretation. At such times, you must wait until the count resolves itself.”

Learn about some of the relevant NEoWAVE concepts here...


Sunday, August 11, 2013

Weekly Update: Intermediate Term Outlook


  1. CNX Nifty opened lower last week at 5682.4 (5869.95) made a lower high of 5721 (5886) , and made a lower low of 5486.85 (5649). It closed lower at 5565.65 (5677.9) for the week. The Candlestick shape is of a black continuation candle.
  2. The RSI(14) dropped to 41 from 44 last week. Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD has slipped below zero below it's signal line . The Short Term Slow Stochastics is below it's signal line dropping below 60. Momentum indicators are generally indicating Oversold Conditions. The ADX reading for the week has jumped to 15.80, taking support at 15 -- coming off from a high of 28 registered for the last week of Jan 2013.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 5% ABOVE average. The OBV has slipped below it's signal line. The CMF continues below center-line around -0.05. While EMV indicates weakening of downtrend.
    1. The The Pars Fortunae (POF) for this week lies in 03Sc24 in the Anuradha Nakshatra Pada 1, the Nakshatra lord is Saturn, and Pada lord is Sun. The D9 position is 0Le37 and Nakshatra is Magha, the Nakshatra lord being Ketu. This Point is void of aspects in D1. This point is also void of aspects in D9. The lord of the First house, Mars in D1 is conjunct with Jupiter in Gemini in the Nakshatra of Punarvasu, corresponding with the 8th House. In D9, Mars is in 20Ta56 Rohini, Pada 4, in the Moon's Nakshatra. The Second House from POF is Sagittarius, and it's lord Jupiter is in Mercury's house in Gemini in the Nakshatra of Ardra; corresponding with 8th House. The 5th house from POF is Pisces, this house is affected by Moon and Venus' Drishti, and it's Lord Jupiter is in a Enemy's house in Gemini corresponding with the 8th house. The 10th House is empty corresponding with Leo, and it's Lord Sun is in Cancer, Ashlesha in Mercury's Navamsa. The Vimshottari Dasha calculated from POF, has Saturn Mahadasha with Saturn's Bhukti. Saturn is exalted in Libra - Swati in D1 and and in his own house in Capricorn - Shravana in D9. The Point of Speculation is at 18Pi35 quincunx with Rahu and conjunct with Uranus(Rx).
    2. In Rashi Chart, (D-1), Ascendent is in at 2Vi17 ,and in 20Cp35 in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Mercury which is in 11th house corresponding with Cancer - Pushya (Saturn), with Paap Argala from Saturn, and Rahu and Virodha Argala from Ketu, Jupiter, Mars, Moon and Venus, Venus being the most advanced. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Mercury is in Libra, in the Vishakha Nakshatra, corresponding to the 10th house in D-9. The ascendent in Navamsa lies in Capricorn with Aquarius as second house, whose lord is Saturn, and he is in his own house in Capricorn. The 5th House is empty in D1 , corresponding with Sagittarius with Drishti from House Lord Jupiter, and has Mars at 20Ta56 Rohini in D9. The 10th house has Jupiter and Mars in Gemini. In Navamsa Chakra, Jupiter is in the 2nd house, whose ruler is Saturn. The 10th house in D9 have Mercury 22Li24 (Vishakha).
    3. Vimsottari System indicates Mahadasha of Mars with Jupiter's Bhukti. Let's examine the Mars' placement in various Varga Chakras. Mars is in 10th House of Karma (Work) in D-1 which corresponds with Gemini (Punarvasu), while in D-9 he is in 5th house of Suta corresponding with 20Ta56 (Rohini), and in D-4 he is in the 7th house that is Jaya (Partner) House, Corresponding with 12Pi38 U.Bhadrapada. In Hora Chakra, Mars is at 21Vi19 (Hasta), in an enemy's house Corresponding with 7th house of Jaya (Partenr). So Mars is not very well placed in various chart. Let's examine the Jupiter's placement in various Varga Chakras. Jupiter is in 10th House of Karma (Work) in D-1 which corresponds with Gemini (Ardra), while in D-9 he is in 2nd house of Dhana corresponding with Aquarius (P. Bhadrapada), and in D-4 he is in the 4th house that is Sukha (Happiness) House, Corresponding with 4Sg59 Moola. In Hora Chakra, Jupiter is at 2Vi29 (U.Phalguni), in an enemy's house Corresponding with 7th house of Jaya (Partenr). So Jupiter is not very well placed in various chart. Chitra Nakshatra is a mild, and harmonius Nakshatra.
    4. Chandra Lagna Since moon is in the first house, there is no need to look at the chakra from Chandra lagna.
    5. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Virgo 09Vi08 (U. Phalgini) with it's lord, Mercury in the second house, i.e., Libra (Swati). The lord of the second house Libra is Venus which is sitting in the first house and is debilitated. The 2nd house has Ketu, Mercury, and benefic Yama Ghantaka .It is under the Drishti of Powerful Saturn. As per the Vimshottari Dasha calculated using the D4 - it is Rahu's Mahadasha with Venus' Bhukti. Rahu is in Aries corresponding with 8th House, combust Sun in Ashwini.
    6. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occured on 25th May at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. In Rashi Chakra, Neptune is Square with this point. In D4, Ketu Trines on Sunday, Transit Moon conjuncts this point on Thursday at 1 PM. In the Context of NSE, the coming week looks rangebound, with a mild positive bias resembling a formation of B Wave of Sub-Minuette Degree. Since this is again a short week, not much change in sentiment is expected barring a few announcements which are due regarding the Rupee stability issue.
  4. It's pointless to anticipate supports and resistances in a Corrective market, but expected trading range of Nifty Index is likely to be between 5721 and 5445.
  5. It is recommended that heavy long positions be accumulated below 5550, if nifty slips to that level, and light positions below 5621. As from Next week 19 Aug 2013 Nifty is expected to be bullish.
  6. For Calls Please check my Facebook Timeline



Monday, July 29, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened higher last week at 6009.75 (5991.2) made a higher high of 6093.35 (6051.1) , and made a lower low of 5869.5 (5910.95). It closed lower at 5886.2 (6038.05) for the week. The Candlestick was bearish engulf, with good volumes.
  2. The RSI(14) remained jumped to 51 Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD had taken support at zero and now kissing it's signal line from the top . The Short Term Slow Stochastics is above it's signal line touching 70 odd levels, but sort of turning downwards. Momentum indicators are generally hovering around their centerlines. The ADX reading for the week has further slipped to 13.98, coming off from a high of 28 registered for the last week of Jan 2013.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 16% Above average. The OBV has shot above it's signal line, and have formed a bearish divergence with the closing weekly prices. The CMF continues above center-line around +0.06. While EMV indicates weakening of uptrend. All Volume indicaotrs are indicating bearishness
    1. Pars Fortunae 12Ta24
      1. Aspects: This point is sqaured with Venus 13Le53 and Quincunx with Saturn 11Li07.
      2. Houses: The POF is placed in first half of Taurus, in the Nakshatra of Rohini . In D9 the POF is placed in Bharani Nakshatra.

        The first house is empty. The Lord of the first House, Venus is in Leo, placed in P Phalguni Nakshatra, while in D9 Venus is placed in Leo and in Magha Nakshatra. This house is aspected by Neptune (Rx), being the 7th house from him. The House is under Argala from Jupiter, while Mercury and Mars are causing Paap Argala on it. While Virodha Argala is caused by Ketu, Rahu and Saturn.

        The Second house which corresponds to Gemini has Mercury in Punarvasu, Mars and Jupiter in the Nakshatra of Ardra. The Lord of the House Gemini is Mercury in his own house in Gemini, while in D9 he is in Aries-Bharani. Besides Jupiter is conjunct with Mars.

        The fifth house corresponds to Virgo, and it is empty. Jupiter is the Karaka of this house and is ill placed in both D1 and D9. However the house Lord Mercury is in his own house in Gemini and in the Nakshatra of Punarvasu. This house is also 7th from the Uranus.

        The 10th House has Neptune (Rx) , and it corresponds with Aquarius - Shatabhishak. Neptune is conjunct with Saturn in Capricorn - U. Ashadha in D9. The House Lord Saturn is in the 6th house, corresponding with Libra, in the Nakshatra of Swati.

      3. Vimshottari Dasha (from POF): It is Moon's Mahadasha with Rahu's Antardasha, with Jupiter's Pratiantardasha, and Mars' Sookshmantardasha. Moon is in the 12th House in D1 and in Aries - Ashwini while in D9 it is in 2nd house of Taurus - Rohini. Rahu is in 6th house i.e., Libra - Swati in D1 while in D9 it is in 12th House i.e., Pisces - U.Bhadrapada.
    2. Rashi Chakra -- Asc 19Le14
      1. Aspects: The Ascendant point is in trine with Pluto (Rx) at 15Sa35.
      2. Houses: The Asc is placed in second half of Leo, in the Nakshatra of P. Phalguni . In D9 the Asc is at 23Vi16. Here it is placed in Hasta Nakshatra.

        The first house has Venus at 13Le53, in the Nakshatra of P Phalguni while in D9 Venus is placed in the 12th house corresponding with Leo - Magha. The Lord of the first House, Sun is placed in the 12th House corresponding to Cancer, in Pushya Nakshatra while in D9 it is placed in 19Li27 in the swati Nakshatra, where it is debilitated. The 1st House is under Argala from Jupiter, while Mercury and Mars are causing Paap Argala on it. While Virodha Argala is caused by Sun, Moon, Ketu, Rahu and Saturn. Sun is the most advanced amongst them all.

        The Second house which corresponds to Virgo is empty. The Lord of the House Mercury is in his own house in Gemini, in the Nakshatra of Punarvasu while in D9 it is in the 9th house corresponding to Aries in the Nakshatra of Bharani. This house has Mars' Drishti on it, being the 4th from Mars.

        The 5th house is empty which corresponds to Sagittarius, and it's Lord Jupiter is also the Karaka of this house is in the 11th house and is ill placed in both D1 and D9. The House is 7th from the Gemini which have Mercury Mars and Jupiter. While it is third from Libra, wherein we have Saturn. And Saturn is ahead of them all.

        The 9th House has Ketu and Moon - Ketu in the Nakshatra of Bharani, and Moon in Ashwini while in D9 Moon is in the 9th house corresponding to Taurus-Rohini, and Ketu is in 1st house corresponding with Virgo -Hasta. This house corresponds with Aries. Saturn is aspecting this house, as it is the 7th house from him. The House Lord Mars is in the 11th House, corresponding to Gemini, an enemy's house, in the Ardra Nakshatra while in D9 Mars is in the 6th House corresponding with Aquarius - P. Bhadrapada, along with Jupiter who is in Dhanishtha Nakshatra, thereby exchanging Nakshataras with each other.

        The 10th House is empty, and it corresponds with Taurus. The House Lord Venus is in the 1st house, corresponding with Leo, in an enemy's house while in D9 it is in 12th house corresponding with Leo - Magha Nakshatara.

        The 11th House which corresponding with Gemini, has Mercury (Punarvasu) , Mars and Jupiter in it in the Nakshatra of Ardra.

      3. Vimshottari Dasha : It is Ketu' Mahadasha with Mars' Antardasha, with Venus's Pratiantardasha, and Venus's Sookshmantardasha.
    3. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occured on 25th May at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. On Wednesday Sun is conjunct with this point in D9. On Thursday Venus is square with this point in D4. And Neptune is getting squared with this point in D1. In the Context of NSE, in the coming week might witness volatility with Positive Bias. The RBI's policy due on the 30th July might induce sudden bounce in Nifty Index. The initial bias this week is going to remain negative, till Wednesday at the max, then turn mildly positive from Thursday onwards. The weekly candle is likely to be perhaps a Doji!
  4. It's pointless to anticipate supports and resistances in a Corrective market, but Nifty is likely to meet some definite resistance around 6045 and major supports around 5765.
  5. For Calls Please check my Facebook Timeline


Monday, July 15, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened lower last week at 5833.15 (5834.1) made a higher high of 6019(5904.35) , and made a higher low of 5775.55(5760.4). It closed higher at 6009(5867.9) for the week. The Candlestick shows some support at lower levels like 5830.
  2. The RSI(14) remained jumped to 56.25. Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD has taken support at zero and now kissing it's signal line . The Short Term Slow Stochastics is above it's signal line touching 70 odd levels. Momentum indicators are generally hovering around their centerlines. The ADX reading for the week has further slipped to 16.47, coming off from a high of 28 registered for the last week of Jan 2013.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 12% Below average. The OBV has shot above it's signal line. The CMF continues below center-line around +0.0004. While EMV indicates weakening of uptrend.
    1. Ascendent 6Le21
      1. Aspects: This point is aspected by Neptune(Rx) Opposition at 10Aq57 , and Point of Speculation Opposition at 3Aq19 .
      2. Houses: The 1st house is Fiery Leo, in the Nakshatra of Magha, the Lord of the house, Sun is in 11th house i.e., Airy Gemini in the Nakshatra of Punarvasu, along with friends Mars and Jupiter . Sun is void of any major aspects. The 2nd House is Virgo and it has Moon, in the Nakshatra of Hasta, who is just past the exaltation point of Mercury. It's Lord is Mercury is Retrograde in 11th house i.e., Gemini, in the Nakshatra of Punarvasu, squared with Uranus and Opposition with Pluto. The 5th House is Sagittarius and Pluto is Retrograde in Sagittarius. It's lord Jupiter is in 11th House i.e., Gemini, in the Nakshatra of Ardara, a house of an enemy, opposing it's own house, in the company of Sun, Mars and Mercury. Jupiter is Conjunct with Mars, trine with Saturn and Neptune and in opposition to Pluto. The 9th House is Aries, and Ketu is placed here in the Nakshatra of Bharani. It's Lord Mars is in the 11th House corresponding with Gemini, in the Nakshatra of Ardara, in the house of an enemy. The 10th House is Earthy Taurus, and it's lord Venus is in watery Cancer, in the Nakshatra of Ashlesha i.e., 12th House. The 11th House is Airy Gemini, who has both it's Lord Mercury here in the Nakshatra of Punarvasu and it's Karaka, Jupiter in the Nakshatra of Ardra. Besides joining the party are Sun, in the Nakshatra of Punarvasu and Mars in the Nakshatra of Ardra.
      3. Vimshottari Dasha: It is Moon's MahaDasha, Saturn's Bhukti, Venus is Pratiantardasha, Jupiter in Sookshma Antardasha. Moon is in Earthy Virgo , in the Nakshatra of Hasta, just past the Exaltation Point of Mercury. Moon is square with Mercury and Pluto. Moon is opposite Uranus. In D9 Moon is almost on the Cusp of Gemini in the Nakshatra of Mrigshira,or the second house. Also Moon is conjunct with Ascendent. So Moon is expressedly and implicitly connected with Wealth in this Chart. In D4, Moon is in the 8th House, Corresponding with Watery Pisces, along with the Sun, in the Nakshatra of U. Bhadrapada. While Sun is in Revati Nakshatra. Here it is Opposite Jupiter in Virgo. So it is badly placed in D4. All in all Moon is well placed, except for money matters.

        Saturn is accelerating towards it's exaltation point. In D1 it is placed in the 3rd House of Sahaja, corresponding with Libra, in the Nakshatra of Swati, in this house it also has Rahu for a company. In D9, Saturn is in the 9th House, coresponding with the Earthy Sign of Capricorn, in the Nakshatra of U. Ashadha. The Karaka of this house, Jupiter is also present here, in the same Nakshatra. And as a bonus we have Neptune Retrograde in this same Nakshatra as well. In D4 Saturn is in the 6th House corresponding with Capricorn, in the Nakshatra of Shravana. So Saturn is powerful in important divisional charts.

        Venus is placed in the 12th House in D1, the house of Vyaya, and it's Karaka is Saturn. In D9, Venus is placed in the 11th House of Labha alongwith Rahu. Venus here resides in the Nakshatra of U. Bhadrapada. The Karaka of 11th House Jupiter is placed with Saturn in Saturn's House. In D4, Venus is conjunct with Rahu in Aries, corresponding with the 9th House. The lord of the house Mars, is in enemy's house in Gemini. While the Karaka of this House Jupiter is also placed in an Enemy house in Virgo. So Venus is not strong in the concerned divisional charts. While we already know that Jupiter is weak in all related Divisional Charts as well..

    2. Pars Fortunae 24Li12
      1. Aspects: This point is aspected by Rahu Conjunct at 19Li13 , Upaketu Quincunx at 28Ta46, Mercury (Rx) Trine at 20Ge38Rx
      2. Houses: The POF is placed in Libra alongwith Saturn and Rahu. The Nakshatra that it is placed in is Vishakha. The house Lord is Venus, which is in 10th house. In D9 it is placed at 7 Ta50, where it is trine with Saturn in Capricorn. The Nakshatra that POF is placed in D9 is Krittika. The Second house is Scorpio and it's lord Mars is in an enemy's house in Gemini, corresponding with 9th House, where it is conjunct with Jupiter. The 5th House has Neptune in it. The House Lord Saturn is in the First House, causing a Dhana Yoga, where Dhana could easily be achieved through penance, patience and service. The 9th House has both it's Karaka and House Lord. The House Lord is Retrograde. The 10th house has Venus and the House Lord is in the 12th House.
      3. Vimshottari Dasha: It is Jupiter's Mahadasha with Mercury's Bhukti. Jupiter is weak in all our charts, and Mercury though powerful is retrograde.
    3. Chander Lagna 16Vi37
      1. Aspects: This Point is aspected by Parivesha Quincunx at 17Aq53 , Uranus Opposition at 18Pi28 , Spirit Trine at 18Ta31, Pluto Square at 15Sg55Rx.
      2. Houses: The 1st House is Virgo. The 2nd House is Libra, with Saturn and Rahu placed in it. Both are in Swati Nakshatra. The 5th House is Capricorn, it's empty and it's Lord is placed in the 2nd House, causing a simple Dhan Yoga. The 9th House corresponds to Taurus and it is empty too, with it's Lord Venus placed in 11th house corresponding with Cancer. The 10th house has Sun, Mercury(Rx), Mars, and Jupiter and corresponds to Gemini.
      3. Vimshottari Dasha: Calculated using Moon as starting point and D9 as chart, it is Mars Mahadasha with Saturn's bhukti. Mars is in the 8th House in the D9, from Moon. The Nakshatra is Moola. The Saturn is in the 9th House corresponding with Capricorn in the Nakshatra of U. Ashadha.
    4. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occured on 25th May at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. In Rashi Chakra, Mars is Quincunx with this point on Thursday, and Asc is square with this point on Thursday as well. In the Context of NSE, in the coming week a major reversal could take place, i.e., a reversal with short to medium term effect. This week is to be watched carefully, as the Astrological set up is conducive to a sudden rise or fall, the latter more likely. The initial bias this week is going to remain positive, with a mean reversion to short term mean likely to to get triggered on the Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. From Friday onwards, there is a strong likelihood that Nifty might regain it's Negative bias and might whipsaw sharply- there is a likelihood that Nifty might form a short to medium term top this week. The weekly Close on coming Friday is expected to be Red!
  4. It's pointless to anticipate supports and resistances in a Corrective market, but Nifty is likely to meet some definite resistance around 6070 and major supports around 5770.
  5. For Calls Please check my Facebook Timeline


Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened higher last week at 5834.1 (5638.05) made a higher high of 5904.35 (5852.95) , and made a higher low of 5760.4 (5566.25). It closed a tad higher at 5867.9 (5842.2) for the week. The Candlestick shape resembled that of an ill defined doji.
  2. The RSI(14) remained unchanged at 51. Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD has taken support at zero below it's signal line . The Short Term Slow Stochastics is below it's signal line turning up. Momentum indicators are generally hovering around their centerlines. The ADX reading for the week has further slipped to 17.62, coming off from a high of 28 registered for the last week of Jan 2013.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 4% ABOVE average. The OBV has shot above it's signal line. The CMF continues below center-line around -0.05. While EMV indicates continuation of uptrend.
    1. The The Pars Fortunae (POF) for this week lies in 28Cn20 in the Aslesha Nakshatra Pada 4, the Nakshatra lord is Mercury, and Pada lord is Jupiter. The D9 position is 15Pi20 and Nakshatra is U.Bhadrapada, the Nakshatra lord being Saturn. This point is conjunct with Rahu and Ascendent in D9. The lord of the First house, Moon in D1 is combust in Gemini, corresponding with the 12th House. In D9, Moon is in Ashwini, Pada 2, in the Ketu's Nakshatra. The Second House from POF is Leo, and it's lord Sun is in Mercury's house in Gemini corresponding with 12th House. The 5th house from POF is Scorpio, this house is affected by Ketu's Drishti, and it's Lord Mars is in a Enemy's house in Gemini corresponding with the 12th house. The 10th House has Ketu corresponding with Aries. The Vimshottari Dasha calculated from POF, has Mercury Mahadasha with Saturn's Bhukti. Mercury is in it's own house but retrograde in D1 and and in a freinds house in Taurus under Rohini Nakshatra in D9. Whereas Saturn is in exalted house in D1, and in it's own house in D9, going direct on the 8th July itself, exerting full power. The Point of Speculation is at 22Cp14 quincunx with Sun.
    2. In Rashi Chart, (D-1), Ascendent is in Cancer, and in Pisces in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Moon which is in 12th house corresponding with Gemini, with Paap Argala from Saturn, Rahu and Ketu and No Virodha Argala from the rest of the planets. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Moon is in Aries, in the Aswini Nakshatra, corresponding to the 2nd house in D-9. The ascendent in Navamsa lies in Pisces with Aries as second house, whose lord is Mars, and he is in his enemies' house in Libra. The 5th House is empty in D1, and in D9. The 10th house has Ketu. In Navamsa Chakra, Ketu is in the 10th house, whose ruler is Mars . The 10th house in D9 have Venus (P.Ashadha) and Jupiter (P. Ashadha),conjunct with each other.
    3. Vimsottari System indicates Mahadasha of Jupiter with Jupiter's Bhukti. Let's examine the Jupiter's placement in various Varga Chakras. Jupiter is in 12th House of Vyaya (Expenditure or Loss) in D-1 which corresponds with Gemini (Ardra), while in D-9 he is in 10th house of Karma corresponding with Sagittarius (P. Ashadha), and in D-4 he is in the 6th house that is Ripu (Enemy) House, Corresponding with Virgo. In Hora Chakra, Jupiter is in Leo (P.Phalguni), in a friend's house Corresponding with 11th house. So Jupiter is not very well placed in various chart. Punarvasu Nakshatra is a passive, and balanced Nakshatra.
    4. Chandra Lagna As per Chandra Lagna (CL), the second house is Cancer and it's lord is Moon which is in the first house, same house as Sun under the Paap Argala from Rahu and Saturn, and Virodh Argla from Venus and Ketu, with Ke being the most advanced. But in Navamasa Chart, (d-9), Moon is in Aries (Ashwini), in the second house, and it's lord is in the 9th House - an enemy's house. While moon is the lord of the 5th - causing the simple Dhana Yoga. So there are multiple dhana yogas, but they are weak, because the planets involved are not well placed. As per the Vimshottari Dasha calculated using the D9 - it is Ketu's Mahadasha with Moon's Bhukti.
    5. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Aries (Krittika) with it's lord, Mars in the third house, i.e., Gemini (Ardra). The lord of the second house Taurus is Venus which is sitting in a friend's house with corresponding with 10th house, and it's Karaka, Jupiter is in the 6th House, corresponding with Virgo (U.Phalguni) in an enemy's house. The 2nd house has malefic Vyatipat and IndraChapa Upagrahas and 9th has Benefic Yama Ghantaka.As per the Vimshottari Dasha calculated using the D4 - it is Venus' Mahadasha with Jupiter's Bhukti.
    6. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occured on 25th May at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. In Rashi Chakra, Jupiter is Square with this point on Friday. In D2 Rahu would be in opposition on Monday. In D4, Mars squares on Monday, Moon trines on Tuesday, Sun Trines on Thursday. In D9 On Wednesday Moon conjuncts and Sun squares On Thursday, Mars conjuncts this point. In the Context of NSE, the coming week again looks lackluster and rangebound, with a negative bias initially which should begin to weaken from Thursday. From Friday onwards, there is a strong likelihood that Nifty might regain it's Upward bias and might whipsaw - there is a likelihood that Nifty might form a short term bottom this week. The weekly Close on coming Friday is expected to be green!(Wow, I didn't have to change much from last time!)
  4. It's pointless to anticipate supports and resistances in a Corrective market, but Nifty is likely to meet some definite resistance around 5965 and major supports around 5725.
  5. For Calls Please check my Facebook Timeline


Monday, June 24, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened lower this week at 5820.4 (5907.9) made a lower high of 5863.4 (5931.65) , and made a lower low of 5616.85 (5683.1). It closed lower at 5667.65 (5808.4) for the week. The Candlestick shape was that of a break down candle.
  2. The RSI(14) jumped to 44 from 49, Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD has crossed it's signal line above zero. The Short Term Slow Stochastics is below it's signal line coming off from 80+ levels. Momentum indicators are generally hovering around their centerlines. The ADX reading for the week is 18.43, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 8% ABOVE average. The OBV has slipped below it's signal line. The CMF continues below center-line around -0.2. While EMV indicates weakening downtrend.
    1. The The Pars Fortunae (POF) for this week lies in 27Cp03 in the Dhanistha Nakshatra Pada 2, the Nakshatra lord is Mars, and Pada lord is Mercury. The D9 Nakshatra is U.Phalguni This point is trine with Mars. The lord of the First house, Saturn is exalted in Libra, corresponding with the 10th House. In D9, Saturn is in it's own house. The Second House from POF is Aquarius, and it's lord Saturn/Rahu is friend's house in Libra corresponding with 10th House. The 5th house from POF is Taurus, and it has the POF-Nakshatra Lord Mars in an enemy's house and it's Lord is Venus is in a friendly house in Gemini corresponding with the 7th house. The 10th House has Rahu and Saturn corresponding with Libra. The Vimshottari Dasha calculated from POF, has Mars Mahadasha with Jupiter's Bhukti. Mars is in enemies housein D1 and debilitated in D9. Whereas Jupiter is in an enemies house in D1, and in a friend house in D9. To reslove this confusion we look in the D4 and there too Jupiterf is an enemies house.The Point of Speculation is at 00Cp00 trine with Rahu.
    2. In Rashi Chart, (D-1), Ascendent is in Cancer, and in Sagittarius in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Moon which is in 6th house corresponding with Sagittarius, with Paap Argala from Saturn, Rahu and Ketu and No Virodha Argala from the rest of the planets. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Moon is in Virgo, in the Hasta Nakshatra, corresponding to the 10th house in D-9. The ascendent in Navamsa lies in Sagittarius with Capricorn as second house, whose lord is Saturn, and he is in his own house. The 5th House is empty in D1, and has Rahu, in D9, who is in an enemy's house. The 10th house has Ketu which is Conjunct with Indra Chapa. In Navamsa Chakra, Ketu is in the 11th house, whose ruler Venus is considered his friend.
    3. Vimsottari System indicates Mahadasha of Venus with Rahu's Bhukti. Let's examine the Venus's placement in various Varga Chakras. Venus is in 1st House of Self/Tanu in D-1 which corresponds with Cancer, while in D-9 he is in 8th house corresponding with Cancer, and in D-4 he is in the 7th house Corresponding with Cancer. In Hora Chakra, Venus is in Scorpio, in an enemy's house Corresponding with 2nd house. So Venus is not very well placed in all charts. Rahu is in 4th house corresponding with Libra in D-1, in 5th house in D-9, corresponding with Aries, and is in the same position in D-4 as well. While in Hora, Rahu is in the 8th house, corresponding with Taurus. This gives a malefic placements to the Bhukti lord. The overall placements of Mahadasha Lord and Bhukti Lord are weak in the context of money, trade and commerce. However, PAshadha Nakshatra is a fixed, and upward looking Nakshatra, which could be taken on it's literal meaning.
    4. Chandra Lagna As per Chandra Lagna (CL), the second house is Capricorn and it's lord is Saturn which is in 11th house from CL under the Shubh Argala from none, and Virodh Argla from Su, Me, Mo, Ju and Ve, Ve being the most advanced. But in Navamasa Chart, (d-9), Moon is in Virgo, and is the lord of the 11th House. The second house in D-9 has weakly placed Ketu, while the lord of the 2nd is in 11th in Cancer. This is a simple Dhan Yoga.
    5. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Capricorn with it's lord, Saturn in the same house. The lord of the second house Aquarius is Saturn which is sitting in his own house with full splendour, and it's Karaka, Jupiter is in the 6th House, in an enemy's house. The 5th house has benefic Yama Ghantaka Upagraha. and 10th has Malefic Indra Chapa
    6. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occured on 25th May at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. In Chaturthamsa Chakra, Venus is trine with this point on Monday and Tuesday. In the Context of NSE, the coming week again looks lackluster and rangebound, with a negative bias initially which should begin to weaken from Wedensday. From Friday onwards, there is a strong likelihood that Nifty might regain it's Upward bias and might whipsaw - there is a likelihood that Nifty might form a short term bottom this week.
  4. It's pointless to anticipate supports and resistances in a Corrective market, but Nifty is likely to meet some definite resistance around 5830 and major supports around 5560.
  5. For Calls Please check my Facebook Timeline


Sunday, June 16, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened lower this week at 5907.9 (5997.35) made a lower high of 5931.65 (6011) , and made a lower low of 5683.1 (5869.5). It closed lower at 5808.4 (5881) for the week. The Candlestick shape resembled that of a hammer, for it to be onfirmed as a hammer, Nifty should close above 5908 this coming week.
  2. The RSI(14) jumped to 49 from 52, Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD has crossed it's signal line above zero. The Short Term Slow Stochastics is below it's signal line coming off from 80+ levels. Momentum indicators are generally hovering around their centerlines. The ADX reading for the week is 18.98, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 4% ABOVE average. The OBV has slipped below it's signal line. The CMF continues below center-line around -0.2. While EMV indicates weakening downtrend.
    1. The Pars Fortunae (POF) for this week lies in 16Li24. This point is cojunct with Dhooma Upagraha at 15Li24. The lord of the First house, Venus is in a friends house in Gemini corresponding with the 9th House. First House also have Saturn and Rahu lurking. The second house from POF is Scorpio, and it's lord Mars is in enemy's house in Taurus corresponding with 8th House. The 5th house from POF is Aquarius, and it's Lord is Saturn is exalted in Libra corresponding with the first house. Since the Lord of the 5th is in 1st there is a Simple Dhana Yoga in this Chart involving Saturn and Venus. The Point of Speculation is at 18Sg48 trine with Ketu and IndraChapa 20Ar42 and 15Ar25 respectively.
    2. In Rashi Chart, (D-1), Ascendent is in Cancer, and in Libra in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 is Moon which is in a in Virgo, with Argala from Saturn, Mars and Rahu and Virodha Argala from the rest of the planets. In Navamsa Chart (D-9), Moon is in Pisces, corresponding to the 6th house in D-9 which makes it's placement as very awkward. The ascendent in Navamsa lies in Libra with Scorpio as second house, whose lord is in a enemy's house. The 5th House is empty. The 10th house has Ketu which is Trine with Yama Ghantaka. In Navamsa Chakra, Ketu is in the first house, whose ruler Venus is considered his friend.
    3. Vimsottari System indicates Mahadasha of Sun with Ketu's Bhukti. Moon is in Sun's House and let's examine the Sun's placement in various Varga Chakras. Sun is in 12th House of Expenses and Losses in D-1 which corresponds with Gemini, while in D-9 he is in 1st house corresponding with Libra, where he is debilitated, and in D-4 he is in the 9th house Corresponding with Gemini. In Hora Chakra, Sun is with Jupiter in Leo Corresponding with 10th house. So Sun is well placed in relevant money charts but not well placed in basic Varga Chakras. Ketu is in 10th house corresponding with Aries in D-1, in first house in D-9, corresponding with Libra, and is in the same position in D-4 as well. While in Hora, Ketu is in the 7th house, corresponding with Taurus. This gives a powerful placements to the Bhukti lord. The overall placements of Mahadasha Lord and Bhukti Lord are strong in the context of money, trade and commerce. However, UPhalguni Nakshatra is a fixed, and downward looking Nakshatra, which could be taken on it's literal meaning.
    4. Chandra Lagna As per Chandra Lagna (CL), the second house is Libra and it's lord is Venus which is in 10h house from CL under the Paap Argala from well placed Saturn and Rahu, and Virodh Argla from Mars as well. But in Navamasa Chart, (d-9), Moon is in Pisces, and is the lord of the fifth causing simple Dhana Yoga. Th second house in D-9 has weekly placed Venus and Rahu, while the lord of the second is weak in Gemini corresponding with the 4th House
    5. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Libra with it's lord in Pisces the 6th house, the Ripu House, alongwith the Mercury. The lord of the second house Scorpio is Mars which is in sitting in his own house with full splendour, and it's Karaka is in the 9th House. The 5th house has benefic Yama Ghantaka Upagraha.
    6. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occured on 25th May at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. In Navamsa Chakra, Jupiter, Sun and Moon pass through this point on Wednesday. In the Context of NSE, the coming week looks lackluster and rangebound, with a positive bias initially which should fizzle out by Wednesday. From Wednesday onwards, there is a strong likelihood that Nifty might regain it's negative bias and begin to whipsaw - it might lack a definite direction.
  4. It's pointless to anticipate supports and resistances in a Corrective market, but Nifty is likely to meet some definite resistance around 5860 - 5900 and major supports around 5590 - 5610.


Monday, June 3, 2013

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  1. CNX Nifty opened lower this week at 5989.4 (6198) made a lower high of 6133.75 (6229.45), and made a higher low of 5975.55 (5936.8). It closed a tad higher at 5985.95 (5983.55) for the week. It was a gravestone doji following confirmed bearish engulfing which followed a Hangman Candlestick signaling possible change of trend.
  2. The RSI(14) remained unchanged at 56. Remember it is being resisted at and around 70 level in both Weekly and Daily charts. Fast MACD has crossed it's signal line above zero. Momentum indicators are beginning to get overbought - but seemingly have developed or are developing Negative divergences while Nifty is around major resistance levels. The ADX reading for the week is 20.57, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  3. The Adjusted Volumes for this week were 12% ABOVE average. The OBV is is kissing it's signal line. The CMF continues below center-line around -0.1339.
    1. The Pars Fortunae (POF) for this week lies in 27Ar23. This point is void of aspects. The lord of the First house, Mars is in an enemy's house in Taurus, the Second House. The Second house from POF is Taurus, and it's lord Venus is in an friends' house in the 3rd House from POF. The Second House has Sun and Mars Passing through it, both of whom are Enemies of Venus the Lord of the House. The 5th house from POF is Empty, and it's Lord is Sun is in Second House.The 10th House is empty -- Lord of the 10th House, Saturn is Exalted in Libra, in the Seventh House. Since the Lord of the 5th is in 2nd and also the lord of the first there is a Dhana Yoga in this Chart, but it is weak since all the Karakas are in Enemy Houses. 1 The Point of Speculation is at 25Sc54 void of any aspects.
    2. In Rashi Chart, (D-1), Ascendent is in 29Ge00, and in Gemini in the Navamsa Chart (D-9). The lord of the first house in D-1 and D -9, is Mercury which is in in it's own house in Gemini, with Paap Argala from Ketu, Rahu and Saturn. Virodh Argala from Moon, Mars and Sun. The placement of Ascendent is very powerful. Moon is well placed in Revati in the 10th house, a Kendra, and he's the Lord of the Second House as well; and Saturn ad Rahu are causing Paap Argala on it. Also the Lord of this Nakshatra is Mercury. The ascendent in Navamsa lies in Gemini with Cancer as second house, whose lord is Moon. The 5th House in D-1 has Rahu and Saturn in it. While in D-9, the 5th has Ketu in a friendly house with Jupiter for company. The 10th house has Uranus which is trine with Sun and conjunct with Moon. Mercury, Venus and Jupiter are conjunct with each other.
    3. Vimshottari System of Planetary Periods indicates Mahadasha of Mercury with Mercury's Bhukti. Mercury is in his own house in Rashi Chakra, and let's examine the Mercury's placement in various Varga Chakras. Mercury is in 1st House in D-1 which corresponds with Gemini, while in D-9 he is in 9th house along with friend and House Lord Saturn, corresponding with Capricorn, causing Dhana Yoga, and in D-2 he is in 12th house which falls in Leo. While in D-4 he is in his own house in Virgo. So Mercury is very well placed in all relevant divisional charts, except in Hora Chakra.
    4. Chandra LagnaAs per Chandra Lagna (CL), the second house is Aries and it's lord is Mars which is in 3rd house from CL under the Shubh Argala from the Moon itself, and Virodh Argala from Ketu . But in Navamasa Chart, (d-9), Moon is in Sagittarius, and Saturn in the second is in it's own house. 5th house of Fortune is occupied by Rahu, and 11th house is occupied by Jupiter with Ketu. In D-4, the CL is in Virgo, and Ketu occupies the second house while the Lord of the second is in a friends house in 10th. So Ketu is playing spoil sport in CL Charts.
    5. The Chaturthamsa Chart (D-4) has ascendent in Pisces with it's lord Jupiter, is in enemies house in Gemini with an enemy Venus which is the 4th house. The lord of the second house Aries is Mars which is in in sixth house corresponding with Leo (friend). IndraChhapa is in second House.
    6. The Penumblar Lunar Eclipse occurred on 25th May 2013 at 9:23:11 AM at 9Sc46. Mars would be in Hard aspect with this point on Wednesday. From an Astrological Perspective, the coming week doesn't look too bearish and obviously not bullish. It could be a week where important supports could breach but then nothing happens -- no violent breakdowns inspite of breach of important supports. However Nifty would remain Sell on Rises throughout week. A key High or Low (Probably a Low) could be formed on Tuesday or Wednesday
  4. Nifty would be rangebound between 5880 and 6074. Below 5850 it might gather negative Momentum. Nifty would turn Oversold below 5800
  5. As of now it seems to be a good idea to buy Nifty 6000 Puts PE with June 2013 Expiry, above 6030 Nifty Spot and remain invested in them for a while!