- S&P CNX Nifty opened this week at 5869 (5860.5) made a lower high of 5930.8 (5939.4) , and made a higher low of 5844.7 (5823.15). It closed at 5908.35 (5847.7) for the week.
- The uptrend in the levels of S&P CNX Nifty is trying to maintain a slope of 45° for it's trend-line, as seen in stockcharts.com's non log charts. Another important point to be noted is that this trend line should be considered as breached below 5725. Last week this number was 5685, and Nifty had taken support at this level. The ADX reading for the week is 13.01, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
- The RSI(14) is at 66.69. Remember it hasn't crossed over to 70 level since Dec 2010. The W%R 29 is at -5.27. MACD has kissed it's signal line and turned up, and now ready to kiss again. All in all the momentum indicators are indicating strength but overbought.
Volume and Open Interest
- The Volumes for this week were below average. Volumes are exhibiting a distinct downtrend, implying that the market participation is gradually, but steadily shrinking. And these were one of the lowest levels in last 4 or 5 years or may be longer.
- The OBV has surpassed it's previous swing high and MFI is coming off from 80+ levels. The CMF is now suggesting distribution at current levels.
- Market Breadth at 1.11 as compared with 0.3 last week. On the back of average volumes, average market breadth, and Nifty breaching the high that was formed for last several weeks, signals onset of last leg of strength. The range expansion was earlier registered on the lower side - and now on the higher side - although there was no significant volume activity, and volumes had been steadily declining.
- The True Range was 86 points! While ATR(14) is at 162 points. VIX closed at 13.63 down 7% from last week.
- The Average Volumes in Derivatives were down by 35% as of that previous week. The OI continues to be low since last few weeks. The PCR readings, have maintained a low profile, probably no smart investor wants to write puts in a C wave, with a ridiculously low level of 1.07 as compared to last weeks 0.88 This could indicate that Smart Money doesn't want to take a chance with writing puts. History repeats itself, although each time it leaves behind a scar.
The Pars Fortuna for this week lies in 11 degree Gemini as per KP. This point would be aspected by Jupiter, throughout the week. Whereas Jupiter conjuncts the Penumbral Eclipse Point in the Heavens above. With Saturn exalted in Libra, and on the first day of the week, Sun is Sextile with Saturn and conjuncts Pluto, whereas Moon is Sextile with Jupiter and Trine with Uranus, time seems to be on the Bulls Side.
This week hopefully, Nifty would try to break out of the range of 5955 and 5755, otherwise it would continue to be rangebound. Above 5955 the resistance lies in 6015 at which point it would get overbought. Below 5835, the strong support is in the region of 5760 - 5775. Whereas 5850 to 5870 would continue to be the Region of Balance.