Sunday, December 30, 2012

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  • Price Action

  • S&P CNX Nifty opened this week at 5869 (5860.5) made a lower high of 5930.8 (5939.4) , and made a higher low of 5844.7 (5823.15). It closed at 5908.35 (5847.7) for the week.
  • The uptrend in the levels of S&P CNX Nifty is trying to maintain a slope of 45° for it's trend-line, as seen in stockcharts.com's non log charts. Another important point to be noted is that this trend line should be considered as breached below 5725. Last week this number was 5685, and Nifty had taken support at this level. The ADX reading for the week is 13.01, coming off from all time low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
  • The RSI(14) is at 66.69. Remember it hasn't crossed over to 70 level since Dec 2010. The W%R 29 is at -5.27. MACD has kissed it's signal line and turned up, and now ready to kiss again. All in all the momentum indicators are indicating strength but overbought.
  • Volume and Open Interest

  • The Volumes for this week were below average. Volumes are exhibiting a distinct downtrend, implying that the market participation is gradually, but steadily shrinking. And these were one of the lowest levels in last 4 or 5 years or may be longer.
  • The OBV has surpassed it's previous swing high and MFI is coming off from 80+ levels. The CMF is now suggesting distribution at current levels.
  • Market Breadth at 1.11 as compared with 0.3 last week. On the back of average volumes, average market breadth, and Nifty breaching the high that was formed for last several weeks, signals onset of last leg of strength. The range expansion was earlier registered on the lower side - and now on the higher side - although there was no significant volume activity, and volumes had been steadily declining.
  • The True Range was 86 points! While ATR(14) is at 162 points. VIX closed at 13.63 down 7% from last week.
  • The Average Volumes in Derivatives were down by 35% as of that previous week. The OI continues to be low since last few weeks. The PCR readings, have maintained a low profile, probably no smart investor wants to write puts in a C wave, with a ridiculously low level of 1.07 as compared to last weeks 0.88 This could indicate that Smart Money doesn't want to take a chance with writing puts. History repeats itself, although each time it leaves behind a scar.
  • Time

  • The Pars Fortuna for this week lies in 11 degree Gemini as per KP. This point would be aspected by Jupiter, throughout the week. Whereas Jupiter conjuncts the Penumbral Eclipse Point in the Heavens above. With Saturn exalted in Libra, and on the first day of the week, Sun is Sextile with Saturn and conjuncts Pluto, whereas Moon is Sextile with Jupiter and Trine with Uranus, time seems to be on the Bulls Side.
  • Inferences

  • This week hopefully, Nifty would try to break out of the range of 5955 and 5755, otherwise it would continue to be rangebound. Above 5955 the resistance lies in 6015 at which point it would get overbought. Below 5835, the strong support is in the region of 5760 - 5775. Whereas 5850 to 5870 would continue to be the Region of Balance.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Daily Update:Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Fri 28 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 5887.15 ( -44 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5915.75 ( -16 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 5879.5 ( 14 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 5908.35 ( 38 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 89,669,021 ( -36% Lower than last trading session, and about -26.9% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -92.28% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 7.4 Points, and the body was equal to 21.2 and lower shadow was equal to 7.65.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5880 medium term average is 5750 and the long term average is at 5380. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH .
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 13.63, while previous close was 13.74, a change of -0.8% Lower than previous close. ATR was 58. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Fri 28 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 1.11, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.54. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -23.3, which is considered as Normal .

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Friday 28 Dec 2012 Volumes were Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average - somewhere around 116,400,000. The MFI reading was 42.9 while previously it was 44.2. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 54.95% while at the end of previous trading session it was ?% , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 31.87% while previously it was 27.96% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 28 Dec 2012 was 16,912,050 while previously it was 27,535,650 a change of 0% The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 8.36% while previously it was 11.00% while the change in Open Interest was 54.40% The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 28-Feb-2013 was 8.12% while previously it was 10.64% while the change in Open Interest was -96.79%
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 28 Dec 2012 was 76,241,550 while previously it was 152,502,700 a change of 0%. The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6100.00 Strike ( 28.9% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 5500.00 Strike ( 75.8% ).

  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      AscCapricorn282SatSravana1MonRah
      SunSagittarius255JupP.Asadha1VenSun
      MonCancer106MonPushya4SatJup
      MarCapricorn279SatU.Asadha4SunVenExl
      MerSagittarius245JupMula2KetMarCom
      Jup(R)Taurus43VenRohini2MonRah
      VenScorpio234MarJyestha3MerRah
      SatLibra195VenSwati3RahVenExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupMar
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunRah
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius255JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunSextileSaturn0.24252
      SunSquareUranus5.08-19
      SunConjunctionPluto0.28419
      MoonOppositionMars6.21-88
      MoonSextileJupiter2.3371
      MoonSquareSaturn0.55-110
      MoonTrineUranus5.3835
      MoonOppositionAscendant4.08-97
      MercurySquareUranus5.23-8
      MercurySextileNeptune1.43120
      MarsTrineJupiter3.4840
      MarsSquareSaturn5.26-9
      MarsSextileUranus0.43148
      JupiterSextileUranus3.0526
      JupiterTrineAscendant6.416
      SaturnSextilePluto0.0498
      SaturnSquareAscendant5.02-6
      UranusSquarePluto4.4-9
      NeptuneSquareMidheaven5.540
      .
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.0008 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.1% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,563,010. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.772. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones exhibited weakness just ahead of the Fiscal Cliff. In fact now it's looking pretty weak in both Daily and Weekly Charts. As long as it closes below 13100, it would continue to falter and might eventually fall to 12500, and then may be 12000 odd levels. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be negatively biased. DAX has reached it's upper range and around 7600 levels where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000, for now it might trade sideways for a while. Nikkei has convincingly broken the 10250 level resistance. In fact it has breached the 70 level in RSI after a period of more than 3 years. Currently it has gotten overbought, and might trade sideways for a while before shooting up again. It has a solid support at around 9500 levels. So all in all except the US markets, all other look very very strong.

  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Friday, 28-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 833.4 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -132.68 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 833.4 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 103,009 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Friday, 28-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -530.35 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 132.77 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -530.35 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -55,955 Crores .
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Nifty begins it's fifth wave, for a possible targets of 6015 and 6075. Although most world indices look strong and there is no sign of any weakness as of now in the medium term charts, but nothing could be said with great certainty in stock markets.

      On Monday, Nifty is likely to trade in the positive territory in the opening session, and Monday being the last day of the year, might trade rangebound for most part of the day, the range is likely to be between 5865 to 5950. There is a chance that Nifty might test 5950 tomorrow.

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 1-11 and 1-12. Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. But, the same rules apply as it relates to the above question. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Expiry Day Scenario

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Mon 24 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 5869 ( -19 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5871.9 ( -17 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 5844.7 ( 3 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 5855.75 ( 8 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 85,336,999 ( -40% Lower than last trading session, and about -32.5% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -102.37% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 2.9 Points, and the body was equal to 13.25 and lower shadow was equal to 11.05.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5870 medium term average is 5740 and the long term average is at 5370. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH .
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.49, while previous close was 14.63, a change of -0.96% Lower than previous close. ATR was 58. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Mon 24 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 0.96, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.31. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -32.04, which is considered as Normal .

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Monday 24 Dec 2012 Volumes were Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 133,600,000. The MFI reading was 53.8 while previously it was 59.6. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 52.73% while at the end of previous trading session it was 52.89% , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 28.31% while previously it was 30.6% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 24 Dec 2012 was 23,696,400 while previously it was 23,395,250 a change of 1.29% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 27-Dec-2012 was 20.34% while previously it was 5.93% while the change in Open Interest was -16.49% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 9.95% while previously it was 8.60% while the change in Open Interest was 37.95%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 24 Dec 2012 was 138,068,800 while previously it was 139,216,300 a change of -0.82% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 5900.00 Strike ( -4.5% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 5500.00 Strike ( -12.5% ). The Greeks don'' wan' no freaks!

  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscCapricorn276SatU.Asadha4SunMer
      SunSagittarius250JupMula4KetSat
      MonTaurus45VenRohini2MonSatExl
      MarCapricorn276SatU.Asadha3SunMerExl
      MerScorpio237MarJyestha4MerJupCom
      Jup(R)Taurus44VenRohini2MonJup
      VenScorpio228MarJyestha1MerMer
      SatLibra195VenSwati3RahKetExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupRah
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunJup
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius306SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius255JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunSquareUranus0.06-128
      SunSextileNeptune3.5114
      SunConjunctionPluto4.27244
      MoonOppositionVenus2.17-239
      MoonConjunctionJupiter1.5320
      MoonTrineAscendant1.0877
      MercuryConjunctionVenus9.1631
      VenusOppositionJupiter4.07-91
      VenusTrineUranus7.473
      VenusSextileAscendant3.2620
      MarsConjunctionAscendant8.5626
      JupiterSextileUranus3.49
      JupiterTrineAscendant0.4232
      SaturnSextilePluto0.196
      SaturnSquareAscendant0.02-40
      UranusSquarePluto4.33-10
      The Moon would reach it's Max Northern Declination and Mercury it's Maximum Southern Declination on Dec 27th corresponding with Expiry day of the current series.
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Lost against the INR by about -0.0002 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,997,592. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.6144. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones again closed above 50 Day Moving Average, for the second consecutive week. But it failed to sustain above 13200, and in weekly charts it has formed a consecutive small shooting star. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be evenly poised. DAX has reached it's upper range and around 7600 levels where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000. Nikkei is trying to consolidate above it's long standing 9200 resistance level, and is looking strong, currently trading with a positive bias, and the next major resistance is 10250. Nikkei was trading sideways for a very long time between 8500 and 9200, and now it seems to be doing some kind of a corrective wave, and looks very very weak in the medium term charts.

  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Monday, 24-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 459.67 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 115.35 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 13706.4 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 101,564 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Monday, 24-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -238.26 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 258.21 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -8802.33 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -55,256 Crores .
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Last week, Nifty did a 'mean reversion'. It seems to be doing the 5th[i](?) Sub-Minuette Wave. The levels around 5965 are a psychological as well as strategic points where DIIs could offload more positions freely, in cash segment. Which could result in formation of a temporary resistance point, which could be broken in due course of time. The 5th Minuette is likely to range between 5825 and 6050. If 5825 is breached, then it should be considered that either it is still doing 4th or the 5th has failed or truncated. The December Expiry seems to be at least 5950.

      For Swing/Positional Traders looking to go long, the lower levels around 5860 could be an ideal points of re-entry with a strict SL of 5835.

      The day played out as expected. Nifty gapped up and touched 5870 in opening session itself.

      On Wednesday, Nifty is likely to trade flat to positive in the opening session. There is a possibility of Nifty testing 5825 - 5835 at some point, followed by testing 5895, during the next two trading days. The expected range is likely to be between, 5835 and 5895. The 5835 level, is important, as long as Nifty closes above this level, the bias would be distinctly positive.

      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 1-11 and 1-12. Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions. But, the same rules apply as it relates to the above question. To see wave-5 of a Terminal fail, wave-3 must be the longest leg, wave-4 must retrace at least 61.8% of wave-3 and wave-4 must be larger than wave-2.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Fri 21 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 5888 ( -47 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5888 ( -50 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 5841.65 ( -40 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 5847.7 ( -69 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 141,152,911 ( 14% Higher than last trading session, and about 9.2% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 30.15% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 0 Points, and the body was equal to 40.3 and lower shadow was equal to 6.05.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5880 medium term average is 5740 and the long term average is at 5370. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.63, while previous close was 14.32, a change of 2.16% Higher than previous close. ATR was 60. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Fri 21 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 0.31, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.67. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -38.19, which is considered as Normal.

  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Friday 21 Dec 2012 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 141,400,000. The MFI reading was 59.6 while previously it was 66.8. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 52.89% while at the end of previous trading session it was 46.59% , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 30.60% while previously it was 26.90% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 21 Dec 2012 was 23,395,250 while previously it was 23,119,300 a change of 1.19% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 27-Dec-2012 was 5.93% while previously it was 12.98% while the change in Open Interest was -20.65% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 8.60% while previously it was 9.15% while the change in Open Interest was 135.24%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 21 Dec 2012 was 139,216,300 while previously it was 138,714,850 a change of 0.36% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 5900.00 Strike ( 23% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 5700.00 Strike ( 20.7% ). The Greeks don'' wan' no freaks!

  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscCapricorn274SatU.Asadha3SunSat
      SunSagittarius248JupMula3KetJup
      MonAries22MarBharani3VenSat
      MarCapricorn274SatU.Asadha3SunSatExl
      MerScorpio234MarJyestha3MerRahCom
      Jup(R)Taurus44VenRohini2MonJup
      VenScorpio225MarAnuradha4SatJup
      SatLibra194VenSwati3RahKetExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupRah
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunJup
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius306SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius254JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunSquareUranus1.55-89
      SunSextileNeptune1.51193
      SunConjunctionPluto6.25158
      MoonOppositionSaturn7.42-49
      MoonTrinePluto7.269
      MoonOppositionMidheaven1.47-188
      MercuryConjunctionVenus8.4652
      VenusOppositionJupiter1.24-142
      VenusTrineUranus5.1834
      VenusSextileAscendant3.0433
      MarsConjunctionAscendant8.2152
      JupiterSextileUranus3.543
      JupiterTrineAscendant1.428
      SaturnSextilePluto0.1693
      SaturnSquareAscendant2-27
      SaturnConjunctionMidheaven9.298
      UranusSquarePluto4.3-10
      UranusSextileAscendant2.1427

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.244 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.9% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,987,790. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.5342. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones again closed above 50 Day Moving Average, for the second consecutive week. But it failed to sustain above 13200, and in weekly charts it has formed a consecutive small shooting star. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be evenly poised. DAX has reached it's upper range and around 7600 levels where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000. Nikkei is trying to consolidate above it's long standing 9200 resistance level, and is looking strong, currently trading with a positive bias, and the next major resistance is 10250. Nikkei was trading sideways for a very long time between 8500 and 9200, and now it seems to be doing some kind of a corrective wave, and looks very very weak in the medium term charts.

  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Friday, 21-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 115.35 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 466.75 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 13246.73 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 101,105 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Friday, 21-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Buyers for Rs 258.21 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -444.02 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -8564.07 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -55,018 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Last week, Nifty did a 'mean reversion'. It seems to be doing the 5th[i](?) Sub-Minuette Wave. The levels around 5965 are a psychological as well as strategic points where DIIs could offload more positions freely, in cash segment. Which could result in formation of a temporary resistance point, which could be broken in due course of time. The 5th Minuette is likely to range between 5825 and 6050. If 5825 is breached, then it should be considered that either it is still doing 4th or the 5th has failed or truncated. The December Expiry seems to be at least 5950.

      For Swing/Positional Traders looking to go long, the lower levels around 5860 could be an ideal points of re-entry with a strict SL of 5835.

      The day's movements surprised me, but if it is the 5th[i] sub-minuette wave then, objectively, it shouldn't have been surprising at all.

      On Monday, Nifty is likely to trade flat to negative in the opening session. There is a possibility of Nifty testing 5870 at some point during the day. The expected range is likely to be between, 5835 and 5895. The 5835 level, is important, as long as Nifty closes above this level, the bias would be distinctly positive.


      1. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
      2. Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves. Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
      3. In Trending impulsions, the only time wave-5 can fail is when wave-3 is the extended wave and wave-4 retraces 61.8% (or more) of wave-3 and wave-4 is larger than wave-2 in price. What makes Terminal impulsions different is each segment is corrective in design, plus waves-2 & 4 can retrace much more of the prior wave than is allowed in Trending impulsions.
      4. According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Combust Planets

Combust
- A planet is combust when it is in conjunction with the Sun and therefore hidden from sight by the light of the Sun. Traditionally this is a serious debility and implies that the planet is weakened or restricted in power. However, if the planet is within 17 minutes of the Sun, it is termed Cazimi - in the heart of the Sun - and considered strengthened by the union.

In his Introduction, William Lilly stated that the combust planet should be in the same sign as the Sun and within 8° 30' - beyond this distance, but within 17 ° of the Sun, the planet is said to be under the Sun's beams. This condition is debilitating, but not as severe as combustion.

Lilly wrote of this: "The significator of the Querent combust, shows him or her in great fear, and overpowered by some great person". (CA., p.113)

However, later, in his horary volume, (p.300): he also writes:

  • A Planet within 12 degrees of the Sun, is said to be under his Beames, and then hath not fortitude, let it be in what Signe it will; when a Planet is within 16 minutes of the Sun, he is said to be in Cazimi, or heat of the Sun, and then it's an addition of fortune, and he is wonderous strong.

That aphorism was no doubt translated from the work of an older author, but it appears to acknowledge the controversy regarding whether a planet can be combust when in a different sign to the Sun.


COMBUSTION (ASTANGATA, DAGDHA, MOUDYA) & ITS IMPLICATIONS

It is said in the classics that a planet would be more powerful when they are radiant. If you look at the zodiac, the point rising in the horizon is called ascendant (the first house) and the point at mid heaven is called the 10th house. The belt of zodiac from ascendant to descendant across the 10th house is called visible half of the zodiac. 10th is regarded as most powerful kendra. Similarly, a special muhurta when sun transits in the mid heavens is called Abhijit. The results of Abhijit muhurta is beyond the scope of this article. When a planet is opposite to Sun, it would be visible when the sun sets and also when the sun rises. A planet in such a condition is said to be auspicious. When a planet comes closer to sun, it would set and rise along with sun and hence are lusterless. Such a position is called combustion. Combustion is caused due to certain longitudinal distances from Sun and it is necessary that both Sun and the combust planet be in the same sign. Combustion is deemed to be bad at it would rob away the effects of the planet. The combustion distance varies from planet to planet. Mars, Mercury, Jupiter, Venus and Saturn come at distance of 17˚, 14˚ (12˚ when retrograde), 11˚, 10˚ (8˚ when retrograde) and 15˚on either side of Sun, they are subjected to combustion. On the other hand, when the planets come close to Moon, it is called Samagama. In Prashna chart, association of Moon with the significator implies quick and pleasing results. Nodes do not have combustion as they are not radiating planets but merely mathematical points. Generally speaking, combustion is a phenomena most talked about in muhurtas (election astrology) than natal horoscopy - as if the combust planets hit at the person for selecting a combust muhurta and spare the man born in combust circumstances! Uttara Kalamrita says, " (Natural) Benefic planets if combust, lose their potency, while (natural) malefics become more mischievous".

If you look into your Panchanga (Indian conventional Ephemeris), you will find that suitable muhurtas for inauguration of house, business expansion, marriage etc., would not available during the period of combustion. Combustion goes by several names - asta or moudya, astangata and dagdha. Moudya means foolishness. Astangata and dagdha mean 'burnt up'. That means the combust planet would behave like a fool during this period as so the name.

Brihat Parasara Hora Shastra says," If ascendant lord is in debilitation, combustion or in enemy sign, there will be diseases. (Sloka 1-2, "Effects on Tanu Bhava). This stanza highlights the importance of combustion in natal horoscopy. There are two only moudhyas which have been given importance  of Venus and Jupiter. When Jupiter is combust, Upanayana (reborn-ceremony) is not conducted. Unfortunately the other planets do not enjoy such respect! On the similar argument, when Mercury is combust, you panchanga should have mentioned that certain days as not good for education, journalism and court dealings. When Saturn is combust, it should have told you not to take up a labour contract!

A combust Venus is supposed to cause losses in business. This means when you go to buy a pair of shoes you will meet loss, the shop keeper also incurs losses. Losses and losses everywhere. Since Mercury and Venus move close to Sun, the phenomenon happens frequently, say every year. In that case, it is wise to examine the trading activities during that time. In my humble experience, such period of combustion marked in the Panchanga has not brought about slacking trade activities, divorces etc., It is possible that you will not loose any amount nor the shop keeper gains - as the shops could closed due to various natural or national causes. Such a situation, as viewed from the national fiscal point, is not good at all! Yes, when combustion is going on, it is possible we get across such a time. However, the distance of combustion should be taken as 3˚ 20' or less on either side of Sun. It is wise not to do any business transaction, conduct marriages, house warming ceremonies during that time.

"If the planets forfeit their strength as a result of combustion the native will enter the holy order, that is, he will become a saint" (sloka 5 "Ascetism Yogas" Brihat Parasara Hora Shastra). Well, not all is bad with combustion! Suppose you have a strong Venus in the chart, the effect of combustion is less. By combustion, the planet looses his strength to Sun. In the event Sun is a benefic like 5th lord, 9th lord, 10th or 11th lord etc., then how can such a combustion effect you? You will make good tidings through the significances of Venus and the matters represented by Sun will flourish. Despite this, the natural signficances (beauty, artistic nature, refinement of the native) would suffer due to combustion. Other attributes should also be considered. "If 11th Lord is exalted, though in combustion there will be many gains". (sloka 2, "Effects of Labha Bhava" -Brihat Parasara Hora Shastra).

You need not panic that you were born when Venus was combust nor that you should not conduct your beloved daughter's marriage during the entire period shown in your panchanga as sukra moudhya. It is suffice to avoid the muhurtas during the time when Venus comes close to Sun by 3˚20' or less. Generally, in panchangas only the combustion of only Jupiter and Venus are published. It is understandable that combustion of Mercury is not given much importance by panchanga makers, it happens quite often! I suggest to avoid combustion period of other planets, Mars, Mercury and Saturn for the muhurta for the events signfiifed by these planets. In these cases also, 3˚ 20' or less on either side of Sun is suggested. It is prudent to view the possible results of combustion based on the functional role of the combust planets, in addition to natural significances.

Source: http://www.astrovidya.com/combustion.html

Friday, December 21, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Thu 20 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 5934.45 ( 17 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5937.6 ( -2 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 5881.45 ( -30 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 5916.4 ( -14 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 123,911,218 ( -17% Lower than last trading session, and about -3.5% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -11.39% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 3.15 Points, and the body was equal to 18.05 and lower shadow was equal to 34.95.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5900 medium term average is 5730 and the long term average is at 5360. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH. Supports are placed at 5868, 5856, 5845, 5810, 5794, 5781, 5753, 5703, 5655. While Resistances are placed at , 5891, 5903, 5914, 5949, 5965, 5978, 6006, 6056, 6104.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.32, while previous close was 14.47, a change of -1.04% Lower than previous close. ATR was 59. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Thu 20 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 0.67, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.35. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 0.15, which is considered as Normal.
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Thursday 20 Dec 2012 Volumes were Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 139,100,000. The MFI reading was 66.8 while previously it was 75.5. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 46.59% while at the end of previous trading session it was 49.78% , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 26.90% while previously it was 30.93% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 20 Dec 2012 was 23,119,300 while previously it was 23,309,700 a change of -0.82% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 27-Dec-2012 was 12.98% while previously it was 13.29% while the change in Open Interest was -8.25% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 9.15% while previously it was 8.09% while the change in Open Interest was 92.96%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 20 Dec 2012 was 138,714,850 while previously it was 137,079,300 a change of 1.19% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00 Strike ( 5.7% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6000.00 Strike ( 11.5% ). The Greeks don'' wan' no freaks!
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscCapricorn271SatU.Asadha2SunJup
      SunSagittarius245JupMula2KetRah
      MonPisces346JupU.Bhadrapada4SatJup
      MarCapricorn272SatU.Asadha2SunJupExl
      MerScorpio230MarJyestha2MerVen
      Jup(R)Taurus44VenRohini2MonJup
      VenScorpio222MarAnuradha3SatMar
      SatLibra194VenSwati3RahKetExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupRah
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunJup
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius306SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius254JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunSquareUranus4.57-23
      SunSextileNeptune1.08258
      SunConjunctionPluto9.2228
      MoonTrineMercury3.4364
      MoonTrineVenus4.273
      MoonSextileJupiter1.38116
      MoonConjunctionUranus5.55196
      MoonSquarePluto1.29-75
      MercuryConjunctionVenus8.0382
      MercuryOppositionJupiter5.2-52
      VenusOppositionJupiter2.42-118
      VenusTrineUranus1.3580
      VenusSquareNeptune5.23-14
      VenusSextileAscendant2.353
      MarsConjunctionAscendant7.3177
      JupiterTrineAscendant5.1212
      SaturnTrineNeptune7.482
      SaturnSextilePluto0.2689
      SaturnSquareAscendant4.55-7
      SaturnConjunctionMidheaven6.4851
      UranusSquarePluto4.25-11
      UranusSextileAscendant0.5546
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.1055 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.6% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,903,775. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.4783. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones again closed above 50 Day Moving Average, for the second consecutive week. But it failed to sustain above 13200, and in weekly charts it has formed a small shooting star/gravestone doji. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be evenly poised. DAX has reached it's upper range and 7600 is the level where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000. Nikkei is trying to consolidate above it's long standing 9200 resistance level, and is looking strong, currently trading with a positive bias, and the next major resistance is 10250. Nikkei was trading sideways for a very long time between 8500 and 9200, and now it seems to be doing some kind of a corrective wave, and looks very very weak in the medium term charts.
    • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Thursday, 20-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 466.75 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 1244.96 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 13131.38 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 100,989 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Thursday, 20-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -444.02 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -369.06 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -8822.28 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -55,276 Crores .
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Last week, Nifty had gotten overbought in all timeframes. It seems to be doing the 5th[i](?) Sub-Minuette Wave. The levels around 5965 are a psychological as well as strategic points where DIIs could offload more positions freely, in cash segment. Which could result in formation of a temporary resistance point, which could be broken in due course of time. The 5th Minuette is likely to range between 5860 and 6050. The December Expiry seems to be at least 5950.

      For Swing/Positional Traders looking to go long, the lower levels around 5860 could be an ideal points of re-entry with a strict SL of 5835 .

      The day played out much to my expectations - DIIs sold off stocks worth 300 Crores around 5830.

      On Friday, Nifty is likely to trade flat to negative in the opening session. There is a possibility of Nifty testing 5950 at some point during the day, and a slight possibility of testing 5895 afterwards!(please don't take it seriously). The expected range is likely to be between, 5867 and 5955. The 5865 level, is important, as long as Nifty closes above this level, the bias would be distinctly positive.

      Thanks, for heeding the advice.

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Wed 19 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 5917.3 ( 43 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5939.4 ( 33 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 5910.8 ( 87 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 5929.6 ( 32 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 149,439,204 ( 0% Higher than last trading session, and about 16.1% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 52.38% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 9.8 Points, and the body was equal to 12.3 and lower shadow was equal to 6.5.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5890 medium term average is 5730 and the long term average is at 5360. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH. Supports are placed at 5868, 5856, 5845, 5810, 5794, 5781, 5753, 5703, 5655. While Resistances are placed at , 5891, 5903, 5914, 5949, 5965, 5978, 6006, 6056, 6104.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.47, while previous close was 14.44, a change of 0.21% Higher than previous close. ATR was 60. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Wed 19 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 1.35, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.37. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 15.11, which is considered as Normal.
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Wednesday 19 Dec 2012 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 149,000,000. The MFI reading was 75.5 while previously it was 76.1. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 49.78% while at the end of previous trading session it was 53.3% , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 30.93% while previously it was 25.8% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 19 Dec 2012 was 23,309,700 while previously it was 23,227,900 a change of 0.35% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 27-Dec-2012 was 13.29% while previously it was 22.02% while the change in Open Interest was -1.22% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 8.09% while previously it was 9.75% while the change in Open Interest was 23.07%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 19 Dec 2012 was 137,079,300 while previously it was 136,275,350 a change of 0.59% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 5800.00 Strike ( -24.2% ). The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00 Strike. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 6000.00 Strike ( 17.4% ). The Greeks don'' wan' no freaks!
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      >
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscCapricorn270SatU.Asadha2SunRah
      SunSagittarius244JupMula2KetMon
      MonPisces333JupU.Bhadrapada1SatSat
      MarCapricorn271SatU.Asadha2SunJupExl
      MerScorpio228MarJyestha1MerKet
      Jup(R)Taurus45VenRohini2MonJup
      VenScorpio220MarAnuradha3SatSun
      SatLibra194VenSwati3RahKetExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupRah
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunJup
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius306SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius254JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunSquareMoon0.38-170
      SunSquareUranus5.57-1
      SunSextileNeptune2.08168
      MoonTrineVenus6.5522
      MoonSextileMars2.37135
      MoonConjunctionUranus6.35164
      MercuryConjunctionVenus7.4992
      MercuryOppositionJupiter3.45-74
      VenusOppositionJupiter4.04-92
      VenusTrineUranus0.296
      VenusSquareNeptune4.1-41
      VenusSextileAscendant2.1860
      MarsConjunctionAscendant7.1586
      JupiterTrineAscendant6.227
      SaturnTrineNeptune7.443
      SaturnSextilePluto0.2988
      SaturnSquareAscendant5.52-1
      SaturnConjunctionMidheaven5.5466
      UranusSquarePluto4.23-11
      UranusSextileAscendant1.5831
      Moon will transit to North Declination and would be Paralell to Jupiter, on 20th Dec 2012 which corresponds with Thursday of this week, and Capricorn becomes ascendent.
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Lost against the INR by about -0.1125 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 2.3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,829,160. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.4537. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones again closed above 50 Day Moving Average, for the second consecutive week. But it failed to sustain above 13200, and in weekly charts it has formed a small shooting star/gravestone doji. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be evenly poised. DAX has reached it's upper range and 7600 is the level where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000. Nikkei is trying to consolidate above it's long standing 9200 resistance level, and is looking strong, currently trading with a positive bias, and the next major resistance is 10250. Nikkei was trading sideways for a very long time between 8500 and 9200, and now it seems to be doing some kind of a corrective wave, and looks very very weak in the medium term charts.
    • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Wednesday, 19-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 1244.96 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 922.37 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 12664.63 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 100,523 Crores .
    • DII
      As on Wednesday, 19-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -369.06 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -491.12 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -8378.26 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -54,832 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Last week, Nifty had gotten overbought in all timeframes. It seems to be doing the 5th[i](?) Sub-Minuette Wave. The levels around 5965 are a psychological as well as strategic points where DIIs could offload more positions freely, in cash segment. Which could result in formation of a temporary resistance point, which could be broken in due course of time. The 5th Minuette is likely to range between 5860 and 6050. The December Expiry seems to be at least 5950.

      For Swing/Positional Traders looking to go long, the lower levels around 5860 could be an ideal points of re-entry with a strict SL of 5835 .

      The day played out a bit beyond expectations - DIIs sold off stocks worth 400 Crores around 5830.

      On Thursday, Nifty is likely to trade flat to positive in the opening session. There is a little possibility of testing 5895 at some point. The expected range is likely to be between, 5895 and 5955. The 5865 level, is important, as long as Nifty closes above this level, the bias would be distinctly positive.

      FII desks are advised not to jump the gun. All and sundry were seen exiting long positions opened at around 5855 - 5865 levels and opening Short positions in the Jan 2013 series. Hope the message reaches the intended audiences.

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Antiscia & Contra-Antiscia (Equinoctial Mirror Points)


Antiscia & Contra-Antiscia

- From the Greek, literally 'opposite shadows', the antiscion of a planet is its zodiac degree mirrored across the solstice points of the Cancer-Capricorn axis (so a planet at 5 degrees Capricorn has its antiscion at 25 degrees Sagittarius). This mirroring ties the planets into a relationship based on the fact that at both points the length of day and night will be equal. Generally, the antiscion of a planet is considered to be a favourable point.

Lilly describes them on p.90 of Christian Astrology:

  • "The Antiscion signs are those, which are of the same virtue and are equally distant from the first degree of the two tropic signs, Cancer, Capricorn, and in which degrees whilst the Sun is, the days and nights are of equal length; by example it will be plain; when the Sun is in the tenth degree of Taurus, he is as far distant from the first degree of Cancer as when in the twentieth degree of Leo; therefore when the Sun is in the tenth of Taurus, he hath his Antiscion to the twentieth of Leo; that is, he giveth virtue or influence to any star or planet that at that time either is in the same degree by conjunction, or casteth any aspect unto it.

    But that you may more fully and perfectly know where your Antiscion falls in degrees and minutes, behold this following table.
    GeminiCancer
    TaurusLeo
    AriesVirgo
    PiscesLibra
    AquariusScorpio
    CapricornSagittarius

    Any planet in Gemini sends his Antiscion into Cancer, or being in Leo into Taurus."

Lilly also offers a table for easy calculation of the antiscion degree (p.92) which he describes on p.91.

  • "The use is easy if you enter with the whole degrees of your planet, the two first columns serve you, as Mars, supposed to be 14 degrees of a sign, look for 14 in the first column, over against it is 16, to that degree he sends his Antiscion.

    If you have minutes, enter the four last columns; as if you enter with 17 min., in the first column, over against it you find 43. or first look the sign where the Antiscion falls, then subtract the number of degr. and minutes the planet is in, from 30, what remains is the degree and minute where the Antiscion is."
On page 92 he defines the nature of antiscia (antiscions), and explains their counter-part, contrantiscions:

  • "And as there are Antiscions, which of the good planets we think are equal to a sextile, or trine; so are there Contrantiscions, which we find to be of the nature of a square or opposition: and to know where it is, you do no more than observe in what sign and degree the Antiscion is, in the sign and degree opposite to that place the Contrantiscion: as in the former examples, the Antiscion of Saturn is in nine degr. and 25 min. of Taurus, his Contrantiscion must then be in 9 degr. and 25 min. of Scorpio."

Source:http://www.skyscript.co.uk/gl/antiscia.html

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Tue 18 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 5873.6 ( 13 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5905.8 ( 19 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 5823.15 ( -27 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 5896.8 ( 38 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 148,907,334 ( 36% Higher than last trading session, and about 16.9% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 53.69% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 9 Points, and the body was equal to -23.2 and lower shadow was equal to 50.45.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5880 medium term average is 5720 and the long term average is at 5360. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH. Supports are placed at 5868, 5856, 5845, 5810, 5794, 5781, 5753, 5703, 5655. While Resistances are placed at , 5891, 5903, 5914, 5949, 5965, 5978, 6006, 6056, 6104.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.44, while previous close was 14.92, a change of -3.22% Lower than previous close. ATR was 61. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Tue 18 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 1.37, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.17. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 2.05, which is considered as Normal.
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Tuesday 18 Dec 2012 Volumes were Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 147,500,000. The MFI reading was 76.1 while previously it was 75.9. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 53.3% while at the end of previous trading session it was 53.82% , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 25.80% while previously it was 27.94% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Tuesday 18 Dec 2012 was 23,227,900 while previously it was 22,764,700 a change of 2.03% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 27-Dec-2012 was 22.02% while previously it was 19.54% while the change in Open Interest was 1.57% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 9.75% while previously it was 9.53% while the change in Open Interest was 9.01%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Tuesday 18 Dec 2012 was 136,275,350 while previously it was 133,854,250 a change of 1.81% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6100.00. The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00. PCR was 0.83 as against 0.91 previously. The Greeks don'' wan' no freaks!
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscSagittarius269JupU.Asadha1SunRah
      SunSagittarius243JupMula2KetSun
      MonAquarius320SatP.Bhadrapada1JupJup
      MarCapricorn270SatU.Asadha2SunRahExl
      MerScorpio227MarJyestha1MerMer
      Jup(R)Taurus45VenRohini2MonJup
      VenScorpio219MarAnuradha2SatVen
      SatLibra194VenSwati3RahMerExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupRah
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunJup
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius306SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius254JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      SunSextileNeptune3.0879
      MoonSquareMercury3.49-43
      MoonSquareJupiter5.590
      MoonTrineSaturn6.4221
      MoonTrineMidheaven1.4271
      MercuryConjunctionVenus7.36101
      MercuryOppositionJupiter2.1-97
      MercuryTrineUranus6.4213
      VenusOppositionJupiter5.27-66
      VenusTrineUranus0.5589
      VenusSquareNeptune2.56-69
      VenusSextileAscendant2.0567
      MarsConjunctionAscendant6.5994
      JupiterTrineAscendant7.322
      SaturnTrineNeptune7.44
      SaturnSextilePluto0.3286
      SaturnConjunctionMidheaven4.680
      UranusSquarePluto4.22-11
      UranusSextileAscendant2.615
      Moon will transit to North Declination and would be Paralell to Jupiter, on 20th Dec 2012 which corresponds with Thursday of this week.
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.22 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -2.9% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,765,057. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.4726 USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones again closed above 50 Day Moving Average, for the second consecutive week. But it failed to sustain above 13200, and in weekly charts it has formed a small shooting star/gravestone doji. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be evenly poised. DAX has reached it's upper range and 7600 is the level where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000. Nikkei is trying to consolidate above it's long standing 9200 resistance level, and is looking strong, currently trading with a positive bias, and the next major resistance is 10250. Nikkei was trading sideways for a very long time between 8500 and 9200, and now it seems to be doing some kind of a corrective wave, and looks very very weak in the medium term charts.
    • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Tuesday, 18-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 922.37 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 886.68 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 11419.67 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 99,278 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Tuesday, 18-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -491.12 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -690.32 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -8009.2 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -54,463 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Last week, Nifty had gotten overbought in all timeframes. It seems to be doing the 4th(?) Sub-Minuette Wave. The levels around 5965 are a psychological as well as strategic points where DIIs could offload more positions freely, in cash segment. Which could result in formation of a temporary resistance point, which could be broken in dur course of time. The 4th Minuette is likely to range between 5965 and 5770. This could be a good opportunity for range traders, to milk the sideways movement. The December Expiry seems to be at least 5950.

      For Swing/Positional Traders looking to go long, the lower levels around 5770-5800 could be an ideal points of re-entry.

      The day played out as expected - DIIs sold off stocks worth 400 Crores around 5895.

      On Wednesday, Nifty is likely to trade flat to positive in the opening session, with a possibility of testing 5864 at some point. The expected range is likely to be between, 5864 and 5922. The 5895 level, is important, on Wednesday, if Nifty closes below this level, the Bias would temporarily turn negative.

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook


  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Mon 17 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX Nifty Index opened at 5860.5 ( 13 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5886.05 ( -1 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 5850.15 ( 11 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 5857.9 ( -22 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 109,547,002 ( -5% Lower than last trading session, and about -13% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -41.13% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the upper shadow was equal to 25.55 Points, and the body was equal to 2.6 and lower shadow was equal to 7.75.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5870 medium term average is 5720 and the long term average is at 5350. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH. Supports are placed at 5868, 5856, 5845, 5810, 5794, 5781, 5753, 5703, 5655. While Resistances are placed at , 5891, 5903, 5914, 5949, 5965, 5978, 6006, 6056, 6104.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.92, while previous close was 14.23, a change of 4.85% Higher than previous close. ATR was 59. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Mon 17 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 1.17, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.93. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -13.82, which is considered as Normal.
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Monday 17 Dec 2012 Volumes were Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 145,000,000. The MFI reading was 75.9 while previously it was 81.1. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 53.82 while at the end of previous trading session it was 48.77 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 27.94% while previously it was 27.04% .
    • Futures
      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 17 Dec 2012 was 22,764,700 while previously it was 22,732,750 a change of 0.14% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 27-Dec-2012 was 19.54% while previously it was 16.81% while the change in Open Interest was -0.16% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 9.53% while previously it was 9.20% while the change in Open Interest was 4.27%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 17 Dec 2012 was 133,854,250 while previously it was 132,277,350 a change of 1.19% . The Highest Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Calls Is 6000.00. The Highest Open Interest In Puts Is 5800.00. The Largest Change In Open Interest In Puts Is 5400.00. PCR was 0.91 as against 0.93 previously. The Greeks don'' wan' no freaks!
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscSagittarius268JupU.Asadha1SunMar
      SunSagittarius242JupMula1KetVen
      MonAquarius307SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      MarSagittarius269JupU.Asadha1SunRah
      MerScorpio225MarAnuradha4SatJup
      Jup(R)Taurus45VenRohini2MonJup
      VenScorpio218MarAnuradha2SatVen
      SatLibra194VenSwati3RahMerExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupRah
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunJup
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius306SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius254JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      MoonSquareVenus0.4-142
      MoonTrineSaturn6.3324
      MoonConjunctionNeptune1.02591
      MercuryConjunctionVenus7.24109
      MercuryOppositionJupiter0.35-119
      MercuryTrineUranus5.1526
      VenusOppositionJupiter6.49-41
      VenusTrineUranus2.0973
      VenusSquareNeptune1.42-97
      VenusSextileAscendant1.5275
      MarsConjunctionAscendant6.44102
      SaturnTrineNeptune7.365
      SaturnSextilePluto0.3685
      SaturnConjunctionMidheaven4.0695
      UranusSquarePluto4.2-11
      PlutoSextileMidheaven3.33
      Moon will transit to North Declination and would be Paralell to Jupiter, on 20th Dec 2012 which corresponds with Thursday of this week.
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.241 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -1.8% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,847,531. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.4467. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones again closed above 50 Day Moving Average, for the second consecutive week. But it failed to sustain above 13200, and in weekly charts it has formed a small shooting star/gravestone doji. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be evenly poised. DAX has reached it's upper range and 7600 is the level where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000. Nikkei is trying to consolidate above it's long standing 9200 resistance level, and is looking strong, currently trading with a positive bias, and the next major resistance is 10250. Nikkei was trading sideways for a very long time between 8500 and 9200, and now it seems to be doing some kind of a corrective wave, and looks very very weak in the medium term charts.
    • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Monday, 17-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 886.68 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 574.38 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 10497.3 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 98,355 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Monday, 17-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -690.32 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -512.43 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -7518.08 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -53,972 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Last week, Nifty had gotten overbought in all timeframes. It seems to be doing the 4th(?) Sub-Minuette Wave. The levels around 5965 are a psychological as well as strategic points where DIIs could offload more positions freely, in cash segment. Which could result in formation of a temporary resistance point, which could be broken in dur course of time. The 4th Minuette is likely to range between 5965 and 5770. This could be a good opportunity for range traders, to milk the sideways movement. The December Expiry seems to be at least 5950.

      For Swing/Positional Traders looking to go long, the lower levels around 5770-5800 could be an ideal points of re-entry.

      The day played out as expected - DIIs sold off stocks worth 600 Crores around 5885.

      On Tuesday, Nifty is likely to trade flat to positive in the opening session somewhere around 5864, with a possibility of testing 5895 at some point. The expected range is likely to be between, 5826 and 5919. The 5895 level, is important, on Tuesday, if Nifty closes below this level, the Bias would temporarily turn negative.
      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].
      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action

      On Fri 14 Dec 2012, the S&P CNX NIfty Index opened at 5846.9 ( -54 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 5886.1 ( -22 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 5839.15 ( -3 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 5879.6 ( 28 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 115,159,830 ( -16% Lower than last trading session, and about -9.3% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -29.73% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the upper shadow was equal to 6.5 Points, and the body was equal to -32.7 and lower shadow was equal to 7.75.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short Term Moving Average is at, 5870 medium term average is 5720 and the long term average is at 5350. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH. Supports are placed at 5868, 5856, 5845, 5810, 5794, 5781, 5753, 5703, 5655. While Resistances are placed at , 5891, 5903, 5914, 5949, 5965, 5978, 6006, 6056, 6104.
    • Volatility

      The daily VIX closed at 14.23, while previous close was 14.71, a change of -3.26% Lower than previous close. ATR was 61. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      As on Fri 14 Dec 2012, the Market Breadth was 0.93, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.4. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -25.69, which is considered as Normal.
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      On Friday 14 Dec 2012 Volumes were Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average - somewhere around 147,100,000. The MFI reading was 81.1 while previously it was 76.5. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 48.77 while at the end of previous trading session it was 47.32 , on BSE. While on NSE the DQTQ was 27.04% while previously it was 27.04% .
    • Futures

      The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 14 Dec 2012 was 22,732,750 while previously it was 22,753,400 a change of -0.09% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 27-Dec-2012 was 16.81% while previously it was 11.09% while the change in Open Interest was -0.64% The Cost of Carry of the Series Expiring on 31-Jan-2013 was 9.20% while previously it was 7.98% while the change in Open Interest was 10.67%.
    • Options

      The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 14 Dec 2012 was 132,277,350 while previously it was 131,082,800 a change of 0.91% . The Highest Open Interest is in 6000 Strike Calls. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 6100 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5800 Strike Index Put Options. PCR was 0.93 as against 0.87 previously. The Greeks don'' wan' no freaks!
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Positions of Nodes, Satellites, Planets etc.,
      *RashiDegLordNakshatraPadaNaksh LordPada LordStatus
      AscSagittarius267JupU.Asadha1SunMon
      SunSagittarius241JupMula1KetVen
      MonCapricorn293SatDhanistha1MarMar
      MarSagittarius269JupU.Asadha1SunMar
      MerScorpio224MarAnuradha4SatRah
      Jup(R)Taurus45VenRohini2MonJup
      VenScorpio217MarAnuradha2SatMer
      SatLibra194VenSwati3RahMerExl
      Rah(R)Scorpio211MarVishakha4JupRah
      Ket(R)Taurus31VenKrittika2SunJup
      UraPisces340JupU.Bhadrapada3SatSun
      NepAquarius306SatSatabhisaj1RahRah
      PluSagittarius254JupP.Asadha1VenVen
    • Aspects and Transits
      PlanetAspectPlanetOrbValue
      MercuryConjunctionVenus7.13117
      MercuryOppositionJupiter0.59-114
      MercuryTrineUranus3.4940
      VenusOppositionJupiter8.11-15
      VenusTrineUranus3.2457
      VenusSquareNeptune0.29-124
      VenusSextileAscendant1.3982
      MarsConjunctionAscendant6.29110
      SaturnTrineNeptune7.315
      SaturnSextilePluto0.3984
      SaturnConjunctionMidheaven3.11109
      UranusSquarePluto4.18-11
      PlutoSextileMidheaven2.327
      Moon is with Paralell Declination to Saturn, in Southern Hemisphere.
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      The US Dollar Gained against the INR by about 0.156 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 4.4% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 2,899,192. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 54.4374. USDINR pair has finished an irregular top, or as "Bobby the Smug" would call it Expanded Flat. It seems to be doing the 4th of the C (I haven't discerned the degrees so far, so if someone amongst you has it, please mail me). Probably it would finish it's corrective below 50 level.
    • International Indices
      DOW Jones again closed above 50 Day Moving Average, for the second consecutive week. But it failed to sustain above 13200, and in weekly charts it has formed a small shooting star/gravestone doji. For the next few weeks, DOW Jones seems to be evenly poised. DAX has reached it's upper range and 7600 is the level where it could face a lot of selling pressure. It seems to be doing a flat B of Intermediate Degree and a failure to sustain above 7600 this week it is likely to retest the 7400 levels again, on the other hand if it goes above 7600 it could touch 8000. Nikkei is trying to consolidate above it's long standing 9200 resistance level, and is looking strong, currently trading with a positive bias, and the next major resistance is 10250. Nikkei was trading sideways for a very long time between 8500 and 9200, and now it seems to be doing some kind of a corrective wave, and looks very very weak in the medium term charts.
    • -->
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      As on Friday, 14-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment FIIs were net Buyers for Rs 574.38 Crores. While yesterday they were net Buyers for Rs 1256.57 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Buyers for Rs 9610.62 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Buyers for Rs 97,469 Crores.
    • DII
      As on Friday, 14-Dec-2012, under the Cash Segment DIIs were net Sellers for Rs -512.43 Crores. While yesterday they were net Sellers for Rs -665.67 Crores. And in the Current Series they are net Sellers for Rs -6827.76 Crores, and from 1st Jan 2012 till date they are Net Sellers for Rs -53,282 Crores.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      Last week, Nifty had gotten overbought in all timeframes. It seems to be doing the 4th(?) Sub-Minuette Wave. The levels around 5965 are a psychological as well as strategic points where DIIs could offload more positions freely, in cash segment. Which could result in formation of a temporary resistance point, which should be broken. The 4th Sub-Minuette (Please read it as sub-minuette in previous posts also) is likely to range between 5965 and 5770. This could be a good opportunity for range traders, to milk the sideways movement. The December Expiry seems to be at least 5950.

      For Swing/Positional Traders looking to go long, the lower levels around 5770-5800 could be an ideal points of re-entry.

      The day played out as expected - DIIs sold off stocks worth 500 Crores around 5885.

      On Monday, Nifty is likely to trade flat to positive in the opening session, with a possibility of testing 5849 at some point. The expected range is likely to be between, 5833 and 5909. The 5833 level, is important, on Monday, if Nifty closes above this level, the Bias would continue to be positive.

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (5th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave].

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.