Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action for 31 Oct

      Nifty opened at 5596.75 (5656.35), made a Lower High of 5624.4(5689.9 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5583.05(5589.9 was previous low), finally closing at 5619.7 (5597.9 was previous close). The Volumes were 11,20,75,316 (11,66,78,775 - about 17% Lower than average. Nifty closed 22 points high er than the previous close. The shape of today's candle is difficult to categorize, perhaps a variation of spinning top ; with below average volumes - about 40% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the Third Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short term average is 5640 while intermediate term average is at 5550 and long term average is 5290. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5657, 5650, 5642, 5620, 5610, 5602, 5585, 5553, 5522. While Resistances are placed at , 5672, 5679, 5686, 5708, 5719, 5726, 5744, 5776, 5806.
    • Volatility

      Today VIX closed at 14.4 (-5.08%). ATR was 78. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa.
    • Market Breadth

      Market Breadth was excellent. It was 1.27 today as compared with 0.39, last. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 17% lower than the average. Market Breadth was good. Money Flow Index now is at 39. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.13. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 48.11 while at the end of previous trading session it was 47.74, on BSE. While on NSE it was 27.50% while previously it was 30.00%.
    • Futures

      The OI in futures is 1,85,83,750 (1,89,56,200) (-1.96%) and Cost of Carry of the November series was 6%, while Open Interest fell by -2% . The December series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 2%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -1.96%.
    • Options

      In the Options Segment, the open interest was 11,27,03,300 (10,40,59,450) the Open Interest went up significantly by 8.31. The Highest Open Interest is in 5900 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap for the November expiry range. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5700 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5200 Strike Index Put Options. PCR fell to 0.81 from 0.85.
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Asc 225° Vrischika - Anuradha- 4 (Scorpio)
      Sun 195° Tula - Swati - 3 (Aquarius)
      Moon 40° Vrisha - Rohini - 1 (Aries)
      Mercury in pre shadow period 218° Vrischika - Anuradha -2 (Virgo).
      Venus 160° Kanya - Hasta - 1 (Aries)
      Mars 234° Vrischika - Jyeshtha - 3 (Capricorn)
      Jupiter R 51° Vrisha - Rohini - 4 (Pisces)
      Saturn 189° Tula 8°45' Swati - 1 (Sagittarius)
      Rahu R 212° Vrischika - Vishakha - 4 (Cancer)
      Ketu R 32° Vrisha - Krittika - 2 (Capricorn)
    • Aspects and Transits
      Sun Conjunct Saturn; Sun Trine Neptune; Moon Opposition Mercury; Moon Trine Venus, Mercury trine Uranus, Mars Opposition Jupiter; Saturn trine Neptune. Moon in Rohini - 1....

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      USD lost against INR by about 5p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at -1.7% !!!, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 20,49,272 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom.
    • International Indices

      Dow Jones has formed some kind of very short term bottom at 13050, and currently is trading around it (12:56 EDT), although it opened around 13,080. Whereas German DAX broke out of it's trading range between 7240 and 7280 levels, although failed to close above it. Nikkei also closed at 8928 trying to regain it's ground above 8925.
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      Under the Cash Segment FIIs were net sellers for Rs 248.48 Crore. In the current series they have been Net Sellers for Rs -218.46 Crore. They are net buyers for 81,407.96 in the current year. Under the derivative segment, In Index Futures, they were seen squaring off some of their long positions, and added some short positions to carry overnight. Still their long positions far outnumber their short positions. In Index Options, they were seen buying options, rather than write them. They are shying away from writing puts, but happily writing calls.
    • DII
      Under the Cash Segment, the DIIs were Net Sellers for Rs -97.85 Crore. In the current series they are Net Sellers for Rs -229.37 Crores. In the Current Year they have sold off for Rs -42,014.37 Crore. Possibly DIIs are sitting on more than 80% of cash now.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      The long term trend of S&P CNX Nifty is up. The medium term trend is Trendless or Sideways. The short term trend is down as long as Nifty is below 5635. For next few weeks, trading in Index Futures would call for strict discipline.

      Nifty could open Flat to Negative on Thursday. Although it is very unlikely that it would close above 5635. Nifty could trade between 5660 to 5560.

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in {C Sub-Minuette} of the (4th Minuette Wave) of the [C Minute Wave] of the {2nd Minor Wave (Zig Zag)} of (C Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave (Flat)] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be rangebound if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5540) and below 3 day Swing High Adjusted (5700), and trending otherwise

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action for 30 Oct

      Nifty opened at 5656.35 (5665.2), made a Lower High of 5689.9 (5698.3 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5589.9 (5645.1 was previous low), finally closing at 5597.9 (5665.6 was previous close). The Volumes were 11,66,78,775 (9,35,55,816) - about 15% Lower than average. Nifty closed 68 points lower than the previous close. The shape of today's candle is difficult to categorize ; with below average volumes - about 34% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short term average is 5650 while intermediate term average is at 5540 and long term average is 5280. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5657, 5650, 5642, 5620, 5610, 5602, 5585, 5553, 5522. While Resistances are placed at , 5672, 5679, 5686, 5708, 5719, 5726, 5744, 5776, 5806.
    • Volatility

      Today VIX closed at 15.17 (+0.33%). ATR was 80. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
    • Market Breadth

      Market Breadth was poor. It was 0.39 today as compared with 0.6, last. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 15% lower than the average. Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 39. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.08. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 47.74 while at the end of previous trading session it was 47.12 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 30.00% while previously it was 32.94% .
    • Futures

      The OI in futures is 1,89,56,200 (1,87,98,200) (0.84%) and Cost of Carry of the November series was 7%, while Open Interest rose by 1% . The December series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 4%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went up by 0.84%.
    • Options

      In the Options Segment, the open interest was 10,40,59,450 (9,56,53,550) the Open Interest went up significantly by 8.79. The Highest Open Interest is in 5900 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap for the November expiry range. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5700 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5500 Strike Index Put Options. PCR fell to 0.85 from 0.89.
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Asc 224° Vrischika - Anuradha- 4 (Scorpio)
      Sun 194° Tula - Swati - 3 (Aquarius)
      Moon 28° Mesha - Kriitika - 1 (Sagittarius)
      Mercury in pre shadow period 216° Vrischika - Anuradha -2 (Virgo).
      Venus 159° Kanya - Uttarphalguni - 4 (Capricorn)
      Mars 233° Vrischika - Jyeshtha - 2 (Capricorn)
      Jupiter R 51° Vrisha - Rohini - 4 (Pisces)
      Saturn 188° Tula 8°45' Swati - 1 (Sagittarius)
      Rahu R 212° Vrischika - Vishakha - 4 (Cancer)
      Ketu R 32° Vrisha - Krittika - 2 (Capricorn)

    • Aspects and Transits
      Sun Conjunct Saturn; Sun Trine Neptune; Moon Opposition Mercury; Mercury trine Uranus, Mars Opposition Jupiter; Saturn trine Neptune. Moon in Krittika - 1....

  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      USD gained against INR by about 35p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at -25% !!!, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 20,84,244 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom. Speculators have closed out 25% of their positions, perhaps expecting no more miling from the current trend.
    • International Indices

      Dow Jones has formed some kind of very short term bottom at 13050, although it was closed today on account of the approaching tornado named "Sandy". Whereas German DAX is trading sideways between 7240 and 7280 levels, and might close with a negative bias. Nikkei has breached 8925, and is likely to trade with Negative Bias, after the Bank ofJapan eased monetary policy by increasing the size of its asset
      buying and lending programme by 11 trillion yen ($138 billion), largely as expected.
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      Under the Cash Segment FIIs were net sellers for Rs -191.53 Crore. In the current series they have been Net Sellers for Rs -466.94 Crore. They are net buyers for 81,159.48 in the current year. Under the derivative segment, In Index Futures, they were seen squaring off some of their long positions, and added some short positions to carry overnight. Still their long positions far outnumber their short positions. In Index Options, they were seen buying options, rather than write them. They are shying away from writing puts.
    • DII
      Under the Cash Segment, the DIIs were Net Sellers for Rs -31.84 Crore. In the current series they are Net Sellers for Rs -131.52 Crores. In the Current Year they have sold off for Rs -41,916.52 Crore. Possibly DIIs are sitting on more than 80% of cash now.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      The long term trend of S&P CNX Nifty is up, with one pending correction. The medium term trend is Trendless or Sideways. The short term trend is down as long as Nifty is below 5635. For next few weeks, trading in Index Futures would call for strict discipline.

      Nifty could open Flat to Negative on Wednesday. The day would be marred by Intraday volatility. The period between 11 am till 2 pm could see a lot of deceptive action...

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (C Minuette Wave) of the [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be rangebound if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5540) and below 3 day Swing High Adjusted (5700), and trending otherwise

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Hurricane Sandy


Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action for 29 Oct

      Nifty opened at 5665.2 (5683.55), made a Lower High of 5698.3 (5697.2 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5645.1 (5641.75 was previous low), finally closing at 5665.6 (5664.3 was previous close). The Volumes were 9,35,55,816 (10,16,63,820) - about 33% Lower than average. Nifty closed 1 point higher than the previous close. It was a neutral doji - this candle is often regarded as neutral and used to signal indecision about the future direction of the underlying asset; with below average volumes - about 73% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short term average is 5680 while intermediate term average is at 5540 and long term average is 5280. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5657, 5650, 5642, 5620, 5610, 5602, 5585, 5553, 5522. While Resistances are placed at , 5672, 5679, 5686, 5708, 5719, 5726, 5744, 5776, 5806.
    • Volatility

      Today VIX closed at 14.21 (+5.1%). ATR was 81. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
    • Market Breadth

      Market Breadth was poor. It was 0.6 today as compared with 0.44, last. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 33% lower than the average. Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 46. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.06. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 47.12 while at the end of previous trading session it was 49.16 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 30.94% while previously it was not released .
    • Futures

      The OI in futures is 1,87,98,200 (1,88,98,150) (-0.53%) and Cost of Carry of the November series was 8%, while Open Interest fell by 1% . The December series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 6%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -0.53%.
    • Options

      In the Options Segment, the open interest was 9,56,53,550 (8,91,77,700) the Open Interest went up significantly by 7.26. The Highest Open Interest is in 6000 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap for the November expiry range. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 6000 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5400 Strike Index Put Options. PCR fell to 0.89 from 0.91.
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Tuesday
      Asc 224° Vrischika - Anuradha- 4 (Scorpio)
      Sun 193° Tula - Swati - 2 (Capricorn)
      Moon 16° Mesha - Bharani - 1 (Leo)
      Mercury in pre shadow period 216° Vrischika - Anuradha -2 (Virgo).
      Venus 157° Kanya - Uttarphalguni - 4 (Capricorn)
      Mars 232° Vrischika - Jyeshtha - 2 (Capricorn)
      Jupiter R 51° Vrisha - Rohini - 4 (Pisces)
      Saturn 188° Tula - Swati - 1 (Sagittarius)
      Rahu R 212° Vrischika - Vishakha - 4 (Cancer)
      Ketu R 32° Vrisha - Krittika - 2 (Capricorn)

    • Aspects and Transits
      Jupiter is in opposition with Mars. Mercury is in conjuction with Rahu. And Moon would be in Bharani 2nd Pada. All these are powerful aspects. And Sun is conjunct with Saturn, which could at least delay the positive outcomes of the other aspects.
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      USD gained against INR by about 17p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at 11.3% !!!, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 27,54,862 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom. Interestingly it seems that Speculators were not willing to wait for the Expiry and were running for cover. Apparently currency speculators were liquidating the long positions. And now sudden spurt in OI figures, taking more short postions?
    • International Indices

      Dow Jones has formed some kind of very short term bottom at 13050, although it was closed today on account of the approaching tornado named "Sandy". Whereas German DAX traded sideways between 7150 and 7250 levels, and closed with a positive bias. Nikkei has support around 8925 odd levels and unless closes below 8925, it could continue to move sideways.
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      Under the Cash Segment FIIs were net sellers for Rs -76.57 Crore. In the current series they have been Net Sellers for Rs -275.41 Crore. They are net buyers for 81,351.01 in the current year. Under the derivative segment, In Index Futures, they were seen squaring off some of their long positions, and also squaring off some short positions over the weekend. And they have relatively less number of short positions as of now. In Index Options, they were seen buying options, rather than write them. Yesterday they were observed to be shying away from writing puts.
    • DII
      Under the Cash Segment, the DIIs were Net Sellers for Rs -9.75 Crore. In the current series they are Net Sellers for Rs -99.68 Crores. In the Current Year they have sold off for Rs -41,884.68 Crore. Possibly DIIs are sitting on more than 80% of cash now.
  • Outlook
    • Trend and Bias
      The long term trend of S&P CNX Nifty is up, with one pending correction. The medium term trend is Trendless or Sideways. The short term trend is trendless or sideways as long as Nifty is stuck between 5625 and 5735. For now Nifty has developed a slight Positive Bias. For next few weeks, trading in Index Futures would call for strict discipline.

      Nifty could open Flat to Positive on Tuesday. Europe could open firm tomorrow, which might fuel the uptrend of the Nifty in the post lunch session.

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in (B Minuette Wave) of the [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5540) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5625), and sideways otherwise

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Weekly Update: Medium Term Outlook

  • Price Action
    • Open, High, Low and Close
      S&P CNX Nifty opened this week at 5667.6 (5674.25) made a marginal lower high of 5721.55 (5722.5) , and made a higher low of 5641.75 (5636.95). It closed at 5664.3 (5684.25) for the week. Adjusted Volumes were about 22% lower than average. It was an inside bar with low volumes.
  • Pivots, Moving Averages, Supports and Resistances
    • Extended Camarilla Pivots
      Supports are placed at 5657, 5650, 5642, 5620, 5610, 5602, 5585, 5553, 5522. While Resistances are placed at , 5672, 5679, 5686, 5708, 5719, 5726, 5744, 5776, 5806.
    • Moving Averages and Market Structure
      The Short term Moving Average is 5660; the Intermediate term moving average is 5210; and the long term moving average is 5025. The Structure of Overall Market is technically BULLISH .
    • Supports And Resistances
      Nifty would be range-bound if it trades between 5540 and 5780. The Overbought level is 5850 and Oversold level is 5450.
  • Trend and Momentum
    • Slope of Trend-line and Trend Strength
      The uptrend in the levels of S&P CNX Nifty is trying to maintain a slope of 52.5° for it's trend-line, as seen in stockcharts.com's non log charts. Another important point to be noted is that this trend line was breached in the first week of September, and also on 5th of October. Accordingly if 5575 is breached this week, this should be understood as trend line failure. So would it signify weakness could only be confirmed in coming weeks.The ADX reading for the week is 15.37, coming off from all tine low of 9.48 registered for the week ending 7th Sept 2012.
    • Momentum Indicators and Oscillators
      The RSI(14) is at 63 making a top just under the Resistance zone of 70. Remember it hasn't crossed over to 70 level since Dec 2010. The W%R 27 is at -14.45. MACD is running above 0 ahead of it's signal line, but it has turned down. All in all the momentum indicators are bullish without a divergence as of now.
  • Volumes, Market Breadth,Turnover, Volatility and Open Interest
    • Aggregate Volumes and Averages
      The Volumes for this week were about 22% lower than average. And it was an inside bar.
    • Volume Indicators and Oscillators
      The Volume indicators are slightly lagging and if a 4% correction takes place in coming weeks, which is not very unlikely, then in that case these might become confirmed divergences. The OBV hasn't surpassed it's previous swing high and MFI is coming off from 80+ levels. The CMF has registered a reading of +0.27 (Buy on Dips).
    • Market Breadth
      Market Breadth was poor at 0.43 as compared with 0.61 last week. On the back of below average volumes, poor market breadth, and Nifty staying within the high and low of the previous week means Nifty as of now lacks any perceptible momentum. Any range expansion on either side should indicate the next move...
    • Volatility, VIX and ATR
      The True Range was 80 points. Compare this reading with the readings in 2009 when we used to have a TR of 250 - 300 points. While ATR(14) is at 192 points. VIX closed at 14.21 down 2.3% from last week.
    • Derivatives, Open Interest, and PCR ratio
      The Volumes in Derivatives were down by 13% as of that previous week, partly due to the fact that it was a 4 day week. The PCR readings, have maintained a low profile, probably no smart investor wants to write puts in a B wave, with a ridiculously low level of 0.91 as compared to last weeks 0.93 This could indicate that Smart Money doesn't want to take a chance with writing puts. History repeats itself, although each time it leaves behind a scar.
  • Inferences and Outlook
    • Nifty seems to be moving Sideways between 5540 and 5780 as of now. A break on either side, especially a touch of Overbought or Oversold levels would signify the next move. A breach of 5575, would confirm the negative bias.

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price
    • Price Action for 26 Oct

      Nifty opened at 5683.55 (5688.8), made a Lower High of 5697.2 (5718.75 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5641.75 (5685.7 was previous low), finally closing at 5664.3 (5705.3 was previous close). The Volumes were 10,16,63,820 (15,83,43,061) - about 28% Lower than average. Nifty closed 41 points lower than the previous close. It was spinning top - this candle is often regarded as neutral and used to signal indecision about the future direction of the underlying asset; with below average volumes - about 66% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range.
    • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

      The Short term average is 5685 while intermediate term average is at 5530 and long term average is 5275. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5657, 5650, 5642, 5620, 5610, 5602, 5585, 5553, 5522. While Resistances are placed at , 5672, 5679, 5686, 5708, 5719, 5726, 5744, 5776, 5806.
    • Volatility

      Today VIX closed at 14.21 (+5.1%). ATR was 81. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
    • Market Breadth

      Market Breadth was poor. It was 0.44 today as compared with 0.66, last. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volume and Open Interest
    • Volumes

      Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 28% lower than the average. Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 48. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.09. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 49.16 while at the end of previous trading session it was 57.15 , on BSE. While on NSE it was not released while previously it was 28.33% .
    • Futures

      The OI in futures is 1,88,98,150 (1,89,01,350) (-0.2%) and Cost of Carry of the November series was 7%, while Open Interest fell by 0.4% . The December series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 4%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -0.2%.
    • Options

      In the Options Segment, the open interest was 8,91,77,700 (14,65,33,550) . The Highest Open Interest is in 5900 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the November expiry range. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 6000 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5200 Strike Index Put Options. PCR fell to 0.91 from 1.04.
  • Time
    • Position of Celestial Entities on Monday
      Mercury in pre shadow period Scorpio 05°44' Anuradha 1st Pada.
      Venus in Virgo 06°31' Uttarphalguni 3rd Pada
      Moon in Aries 2°49' Ashwani 1st Pada.
      Rahu Retrogade Scorpio 2°57' Vishakha 4th Pada
      Ketu Retrograde in Taurus 2°57' Krittika 2nd Pada
      Mars in Scorpio 21°44' Jyeshtha 2nd Pada
      Jupiter Retrograde in Taurus 21°21' Rohini 4th Pada
      Saturn in Libra 8°45' Swati 2nd Pada
    • Aspects and Transits
      Jupiter is in opposition with Mars. Mercury is in conjuction with Rahu. And Moon would be in Ashwani. All these are powerful aspects. And Sun is conjunct with Saturn, which could at least delay the positive outcomes of the other aspects.
  • Intermarket Analysis
    • USDINR Pair

      There was no trading in USD on NSE.

    • International Indices

      Dow Jones has formed some kind of ver short term bottom at 13050. Whereas German DAX is struggling to 7250 levels, and looks weak in the charts. Nikkei has support around 8925 odd levels and unless trades below 8925, it could continue to move sideways.
  • Institutional And Commercials Activity

    • FII
      Under the Cash Segment FIIs were net sellers for Rs -198.84 Crore. They have begun the series on a selling note. WHile in the previous series they were Net Buyers for Rs 9971.85 Crores. They are net buyers for 81,427.58 in the current year. Under the derivative segment, In Index Futures, they were seen squaring off some of their long positions, and carrying some short positions over the weekend. And they have relatively less number of short positions as of now. In Index Options, they were seen buying options, rather than write them. yesterday they were observed to be shying away from writing puts.
    • DII
      Under the Cash Segment, the DIIs were Net Sellers for Rs -89.93 Crore. In the previous series they were Net Sellers for Rs -5032.74 Crores. In the Current Year they have sold off for Rs -41,874.93 Crore. Possibly DIIs are sitting on more than 80% of cash now.
  • Outlook
    • In the long term Nifty is in Uptrend. In the medium term it is trading sideways. In the Short Term Nifty had signalled a reversal. Nifty is in the midst of completing a Head and Shoulder. It could easily correct upto 5430 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute*** which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. Nifty was stuck in a small range in the previous series, and now it's trying to break out of it. For next few weeks, trading in Index Futures would call for strict discipline.

      Nifty could open Flat to Negative on Monday, and might witness a lot of intraday short build up within first 15 minutes. The period after 2 PM would be most decisive period of the day, which means, if Nifty gathers negative momentum after 2 PM on Monday, and breaches 5625, then conditions conducive to a swift fall would be set up. Although expected range is 5637 to 5690.

      ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5530) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5625), and sideways otherwise

      Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 25-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5688.8 (5715.65), made a Lower High of 5718.75 (5720.8 was the previous high) and a Higher low of 5685.7(5681.45 was previous low), finally closing at 5705.3 (5691.4 was previous close). The Volumes were 15,83,43,061 (8,15,01,427) - about 9% Higher than average. Nifty closed 14 points higher than the previous close. It was an Inside day with average volumes - about 22% of standard deviation (volumes) above the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5700 while intermediate term average is at 5525 and long term average is 5270. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5676, 5668, 5660, 5636, 5624, 5615, 5596, 5560, 5527. While Resistances are placed at , 5692, 5700, 5709, 5733, 5744, 5753, 5773, 5808, 5842.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 1,89,01,350 (2,84,80,450) (-33%) and Cost of Carry of the November series was 8%, while Open Interest went up by 23% . The December series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 54%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -33%.
  • Options


  • Volatility

    Today VIX closed at 13.52. ATR was 82. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was poor. It was 0.66 today as compared with 0.68, last. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 9% Higher than the average. Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 44. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.07. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 57.15 while at the end of previous trading session it was 59.04 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 28.33% while previously it was 27.03% .
  • US Dollar

    USD gained against INR by about 4p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at -3.8%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 24,75,546 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom. Interestingly it seems that Speculators were not willing to wait for the Expiry and were running for cover. Apparently currency speculators were liquidating the long positions. And now sudden spurt in OI figures, taking short postions?
  • Trend

    RSI has created a double top around 60 odd levels, which indicates weakness. It rose to 57 odd levels, whereas ADX fell to 38 from 39, finally forming a top! VHF fell to 0.32 from 0.35.
  • Institutional Activity

    DIIs were net buyers for a paltry 34 Crores. In this series a sold a total of Rs. 5032.74 Crore and year to date they have liquidated positions worth 41785 Crores. Whereas FIIs were net sellers for Rs 551.34 Crore today, and they were net buyers for Rs 9971.85 Crore in the current Series. They were net buyers for Rs 81626.42 Crore in the Curent year.

    Under the Derivative Segment, the FIIs let 80% of their short Positions in Index Futures expire. Similarly they let about 33% of their long positions expire. So net net they are Long till their teeth now. In the Index Option Segment they continue to hold options, while almost half of their Short Positions (Options Written) expired. Surprisingly they are buying options rather than writing them. Options are sometimes available very cheap since the VIX readings are at historical low.

  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty had signalled a reversal in short term. Nifty is in the midst of completing a Head and Shoulder. It could easily correct upto 5430 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute*** which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    And Nifty is likely to break out of this range, immediately after the Current Series Expiry. The Breakout seems more likely to be up, we have 5900 on the cards, so it seems.

    Secondly and Most Importantly Mercury Retrograde Pre Shadow period started from 19th October 2012. The Mercury turns retrograde on 7 Nov 2012 at 10°15’ in Scorpio in the constellation of Anuradha (3rd pada). Mercury’s retrogression will be over on 27 Nov. 2012. There will be a penumbral Lunar eclipse on 28/29 November, in the constellation of Rohini (1st pada) 12°44’ in Taurus. This period could be infested with Whipsaws, Bull Traps, Sudden Crashes, and Short Squeees etc., We mustn't forget that on 5th Oct., Before Saturn entered the Sign of Scorpio, it was in exact conjunction with Mercury in the sign of Libra at 05°54’ in the constellation of Chitira (4th pada). Scorpio is such an unusual sign, and Saturns presence in it could be a topic of a 2000 Pages book.

    "On Friday the Moon is in the Second Pada of Poorva Bhadara Nakshatra. The Lord of the Nakshatra Jupiter is in the 4th Pada of Rohini, where it is in an exalted state. The lord of the Rohini is Moon and so is the navamsa of the 4th pada! Saturn is in the First Pada of the Nakshatra Swati whose lord is also Jupiter, and is in an exalted state. "

    On Friday, Nifty could open Positive, perhaps around 5710, could test 5698 on the low and 5750 on the high. Nifty could bounce 150 - 200 points if it closes above 5735. After 1 pm on Firday, it is possible that Nifty could trend sideways in a very small range, so it seems that the initial euphoria or the lack of it would give way to indecision and lack of interest.

    ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5525) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5660), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 23-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5715.65 (5667.6), made a Lower High of 5720.8 (5721.55 was the previous high) and a Higher low of 5681.45(5658.05 was previous low), finally closing at 5691.4( 5717.15 was previous close). The Volumes were 8,15,01,427 (10,33,72,318) - about 43% Lower than average. Nifty closed 26 points lower than the previous close. It was an Inside day with below average volumes - about 102% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the Third Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5695 while intermediate term average is at 5520 and long term average is 5270. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5676, 5668, 5660, 5636, 5624, 5615, 5596, 5560, 5527. While Resistances are placed at , 5692, 5700, 5709, 5733, 5744, 5753, 5773, 5808, 5842.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 2,91,21,900 (2,84,80,450) (2.25%) and Cost of Carry of the October series was 13%, while Open Interest went down by -29% . The November series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 77%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by 2.25%.
  • Options

    In the Options Segment, the open interest was 14,05,23,700 (13,67,86,150) the Open Interest went down by 2.73. The Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the October expiry range. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 6000 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5600 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5300 Strike Index Put Options. PCR fell to 0.95 from 1.12.
  • Volatility

    Yesterday VIX registered it's all time low value for NSE India. The Low of 12.87 was lowest ever and close 13.04 was lowest ever close. Today it closed at 13.71. ATR was 86. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was poor. It was 0.68 today as compared with 0.89, last. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 43% Lower and it was the lowest figure since July 2011, for a full trading day. Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 44. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.02. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 59.04 while at the end of previous trading session it was 49.63, on BSE. While on NSE it was 27.03% while previously it was 27.63%.
  • US Dollar

    USD lost against INR by about 8p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at 7.4%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 25,73,957 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom. Interestingly it seems that Speculators were not willing to wait for the Expiry and were running for cover. Apparently currency speculators were liquidating the long positions. And now sudden spurt in OI figures, taking short postions?
  • Trend

    RSI has created a double top around 60 odd levels, which indicates weakness. It fell to 56 odd levels, whereas ADX fell to 39 from 40, finally forming a top! VHF fell to 0.35 from 0.39 .
  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty had signalled a reversal in short term. Nifty is in the midst of completing a Head and Shoulder. It could easily correct upto 5430 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute*** which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    And Nifty is likely to break out of this range, immediately after the Current Series Expiry. The Breakout seems more likely to be up, we have 5900 on the cards, so it seems.

    Secondly and Most Importantly Mercury Retrograde Pre Shadow period started from 19th October 2012. The Mercury turns retrograde on 7 Nov 2012 at 10°15’ in Scorpio in the constellation of Anuradha (3rd pada). Mercury’s retrogression will be over on 27 Nov. 2012. There will be a penumbral Lunar eclipse on 28/29 November, in the constellation of Rohini (1st pada) 12°44’ in Taurus. This period could be infested with Whipsaws, Bull Traps, Sudden Crashes, and Short Squeees etc., We mustn't forget that on 5th Oct., Before Saturn entered the Sign of Scorpio, it was in exact conjunction with Mercury in the sign of Libra at 05°54’ in the constellation of Chitira (4th pada). Scorpio is such an unusual sign, and Saturns presence in it could be a topic of a 2000 Pages book.

    "On Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012 the Sun will make it’s annual conjunction to Saturn on the same day as Mercury makes a conjunction the Rahu (North Node), and Mercury gets sextile with Venus, with Venus Sextile Rahu; bringing us a message from our destiny. This is the first Sun-Saturn conjunction in Scorpio marking the end and beginning of an era, giving us a glimpse into the lessons of the coming two and a half years of Saturn’s journey through the sign."

    On Thursday, Nifty could open between flat to negative , perhaps around 5685, could test 5660 on the low and 5730 on the high. Nifty could bounce 150 - 200 points if it closes above 5735. Although the expiry figure looks more likely to be around 5685 - 5700. Nifty would most likely feel pressure before 11 am, with little respite till 1 pm.

    ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5520) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5625), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 22-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5667.6 (5703.3), made a Higher High of 5721.55 (5711.7 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5658.05 (5660 was previous low), finally closing at 5717.15 (5684.25 was previous close). The Volumes were 10,33,72,318 (12,42,62,817) - about 30% Lower than average. Nifty closed 33 points higher than the previous close. It was an Outside day with below average volumes - about 68% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the Third Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5695 while intermediate term average is at 5510 and long term average is 5260. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5676, 5668, 5660, 5636, 5624, 5615, 5596, 5560, 5527. While Resistances are placed at , 5692, 5700, 5709, 5733, 5744, 5753, 5773, 5808, 5842.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 2,84,80,450 (2,62,82,000) (8.36%) and Cost of Carry of the October series was 16%, while Open Interest went down by -11% . The November series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 125%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by 8.36%.
  • Options

    In the Options Segment, the open interest was 14,05,23,700 (13,67,86,150) the Open Interest went down by 2.73. The Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the October expiry range. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5800 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5600 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5600 Strike Index Put Options. PCR rose to 1.12 from 0.93.
  • Volatility

    Today VIX registered it's all time low value for NSE India. The Low of 12.87 was lowest ever and close 13.04 was lowest ever close. ATR was 90. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was almost neutral. It was 0.89 today as compared with 0.62, last. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 30% Lower and Market Breadth was neutral. Money Flow Index now is at 51. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.07. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 49.63 while at the end of previous trading session it was 48.2 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 27.63%while previously it was 24.74%. .
  • US Dollar

    USD lost against INR by about 4p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at -5.5%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 23,96,057 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom. Interestingly it seems that Speculators are not willing to wait for the Expiry and are running for cover. Apparently currency speculators are liquidating the long positions.
  • Trend

    RSI has created a double top around 60 odd levels, which indicates weakness. It rose to 59 odd levels, whereas ADX fell to 39.62 from 40.34, finally forming a top! VHF fell to 0.39 from 0.40 .
  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty has signalled a reversal in short term. Nifty is in the midst of completing a Head and Shoulder. It could easily correct upto 5430 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute*** which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    Secondly and Most Importantly Mercury Retrograde Pre Shadow period started from 19th October 2012. The Mercury turns retrograde on 7 Nov 2012 at 10°15’ in Scorpio in the constellation of Anuradha (3rd pada). Mercury’s retrogression will be over on 27 Nov. 2012. There will be a penumbral Lunar eclipse on 28/29 November, in the constellation of Rohini (1st pada) 12°44’ in Taurus. This period could be infested with Whipsaws, Bull Traps, Sudden Crashes, and Short Squeees etc., We mustn't forget that on 5th Oct., When Saturn entered the Sign of Scorpio, it was in exact conjunction with Mercury in the sign of Libra at 05°54’ in the constellation of Chitira (4th pada). Scorpio is such an unusual sign, and Saturns presence in it could be a topic of a 2000 Pages book.

    On Tuesday, Nifty could open between flat to negative , perhaps around 5700, could test 5675 on the low and 5730 on the high. There could be some sellng pressure in the afternoon, until 2 PM. Nifty could bounce 150 - 200 points if it closes above 5735. Although the expiry figure looks more likely to be around 5685 - 5700.

    ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5510) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5625), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 19-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5703.3 (5675.3), made a Lower High of 5711.7 (5722.5 was the previous high) and a Higher low of 5660 (5650.55 was previous low), finally closing at 5684.25 (5718.7 was previous close). The Volumes were 12,42,62,817 (14,40,97,860) - about 18% Lower than average. Nifty closed 34 points lower than the previous close. It was an Inside day with below average volumes - about 42% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the Third Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5685 while intermediate term average is at 5500 and long term average is 5260. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5676, 5668, 5660, 5636, 5624, 5615, 5596, 5560, 5527. While Resistances are placed at , 5692, 5700, 5709, 5733, 5744, 5753, 5773, 5808, 5842.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 2,62,82,000 (2,71,07,350) (-3.04%) and Cost of Carry of the October series was 4%, while Open Interest went down by -8% . The November series Cost of Carry was 6% and Open Interest went up by 49%. The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -3.04%.
  • Options

    In the Options Segment, the open interest was 13,67,86,150 (14,03,64,750) the Open Interest went down by -2.55. The Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the October expiry range, for now. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5800 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5300 Strike Index Put Options. PCR rose to 0.93 from 0.99.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is moving sideways as per expectations. Now VIX is actually moving sideways below 20, and unless breaks this level of 20, there isn't much to notice about. VIX closed at 14.54 a -1.49% decrease from previous trading session. ATR was 91. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was Poor. For some reason NSE didn't release final data for Advances and Declines. The Provisional Advance-Decline Ratio was 0.62, as compared with 1.89 on the previous trading day. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 18% Lower and Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 51. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.04. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 48.2 while at the end of previous trading session it was 46.92 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 24.74% while previously it was 26.39%. .
  • US Dollar

    USD gained against INR by about another 75p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at -6.1%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 25,36,748 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom.
  • Institutional Activity

    In the Cash Segment the FIIs were net buyers for Rs 80.11 Crore. For the current series, they are net Buyers for Rs 10029.11 Crores. The year to date buying has been for Rs 81683.68 Crore.

    In the Cash Segment the DIIs were net buyers for Rs 112.06 Crore. For the current series, they are net Sellers for Rs -4630.69 Crores. The year to date Selling has been for Rs -41,382.95 Crore.

    For the Derivative Segment the FIIs were Net Short in Index Futures. In Index Options they were seen purchasing Index Puts. In Stock Futures they were seen reinforcing their Calender Spreads. Even in Stock options the situation was more or less the same.

  • Trend

    RSI has created a double top around 60 odd levels, which indicates weakness. It fell to 56 odd level, whereas ADX fell to 40.34 from 40.97, finally forming a top! VHF rose to 0.40 from 0.39 .
  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty has signaled a reversal in short term. Nifty is in the midst of completing a Head and Shoulder. It could easily correct upto 5430 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute*** which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    Secondly and Most Importantly Mercury Retrograde Pre Shadow period started from19th October 2012. The Mercury turns retrograde on 7 Nov 2012 at 10°15’ in Scorpio in the constellation of Anuradha (3rd pada). Mercury’s retrogression will be over on 27 Nov. 2012. There will be a penumbral Lunar eclipse on 28/29 November, in the constellation of Rohini (1st pada) 12°44’ in Taurus. This period could be infested with Whipsaws, sudden crashes, and short squeees etc., We mustn't forget that on 5th Oct., Saturn was in exact conjunction with Mercury in the sign of Libra at 05°54’ in the constellation of Chitira (4th pada).

    On Monday, Nifty could open between flat to negative , perhaps around 5676, could test 5650 on the low and 5720 on the high.

    ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5500) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5625), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 18-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5675.3 (5681.1), made a Higher High of 5722.5 (5684.35 was the previous high) and a Higher low of 5650.55 (5633.9 was previous low), finally closing at 5718.7 (5660.25). The Volumes were 14,40,97,860 (12,39,74,371) - about 6% Lower than average. Nifty closed 58 points higher than the previous close. It was an Higher bar day with average volumes - about 14% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the Third Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5690 while intermediate term average is at 5500 and long term average is 5250. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5666, 5655, 5644, 5613, 5598, 5587, 5561, 5515, 5472. While Resistances are placed at , 5687, 5697, 5708, 5739, 5754, 5765, 5791, 5837, 5881.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 2,71,07,350 (2,58,28,150) (4.95%) and Cost of Carry of the October series was 16%, while Open Interest went up by +2% . The November series Cost of Carry was 7% and Open Interest went up by 43%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by +4.95%.
  • Options

    In the Options Segment, the open interest was 14,03,64,750 (14,03,61,850) the Open Interest almost remained unchanged which is quite unheard of. The Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the October expiry range, for now. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5900 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5600 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5700 Strike Index Put Options. PCR rose to 0.99 from 0.87.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is moving sideways as per expectations. Now VIX is actually moving sideways below 20, and unless breaks this level of 20, there isn't much to notice about. VIX closed at 14.76 a -2.7% decrease from previous trading session. ATR was 94. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was Excellent. The Advance-Decline Ratio was 1.9, as compared with 0.79 on the previous trading day. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 6% Lower and Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 59. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at +0.03. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 46.92 while at the end of previous trading session it was 47.21 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 26.39% while previously it was 25.05%. .
  • US Dollar

    USD gained against INR by about another 22p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at +1.5%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 27,01,541 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom.
  • Institutional Activity

    Apparently, FII sponsored INDIA SHOPPING FESTIVAL is coming to a close. They had been BOLDLY buying at all levels, but seemed to have slowed down lately, especially after it was reported that Robert Vadehra is bullish on India. They seem to be reevaluating their strategies, especially after last weeks performance, it seemed that their Derivative Segments were handled by Robert Vadehra clones. FIIs were net Sellers for -68.87 Crores. They were net Buyers for 9949 Crores in the October series (i.e., since 28th Sep 2012). And they are net buyers for 81,603.57 Crores in this year. Whereas DIIs were net BUYERS today for -184.56 Crores. They are net sellers for -4742.75 Crores in current series. Since 1st January 2012 they have sold for -41,495.01 Crores. DIIs have been slowly and continuously liquidating their positions. Most of the volumes figures are originating from institutional desks. FIIs hold positions for a longer period of time. They do what sometimes is referred to as Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH). And DIIs attempt to outsmart them by over trading. But DIIs are continuously liquidating their positions since December 2010. And this year, FIIs were not only "absorbing the DII liquidation', but bought free float from the market irrespective of price levels.

    The Savile Row, Custom Made Pin Stripe Suit wearers, with the attached tags creating more impact than their business cards, who adorn Glass Cabins of the FII offices generally located at, more than warranted exotic locations, have finally woken up and exiting long derivative positions at higher levels rather than lower levels! Perhaps to emphasize - though - without any tangible impact, that they have no drought for talent, both in the chairs that they sit in and others around them. It is strongly recommended that they switch from visiting porn sites to technical sites - which might keep them becoming, a lassi te parrontthe vendor in some Bombay suburbia. Now they are beginning to realize that it's a correction! They were seen taking Calender Spreads in Index Futures. They were seen briskly writing Index Options, with their Open Interest in Options segment rose by 1.15%. They took calender spreads in Stocks Futures and added some extra long positions. In Stock options they were seen doing Calender Spreads.

  • Trend

    RSI rose to 60 odd level, whereas ADX fell to 40.97 from 41.85, finally forming a top! VHF fell to 0.39 from 0.5 . With ADX at 40+ and VHF at 50+, Nifty would have started blinking on the radars of Asia Pacific Funds. The volumes are gradually falling now.
  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty has signalled a reversal in short term. Nifty is in the midst of completing a Head and Shoulder. It could easily correct upto 5430 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute*** which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    Secondly and Most Importantly Mercury Retrograde Pre Shadow period starts from tomorrow, i.e., 19th October 2012. The Mercury turns retrograde on 7 Nov 2012 at 10°15’ in Scorpio in the constellation of Anuradha (3rd pada). Mercury’s retrogression will be over on 27 Nov. 2012. There will be a penumbral Lunar eclipse on 28/29 November, in the constellation of Rohini (1st pada) 12°44’ in Taurus. This period could be infested with Whipsaws, sudden crashes, and short squeees etc., We mustn't forget that on 5th Oct., Saturn was in exact conjunction with Mercury in the sign of Libra at 05°54’ in the constellation of Chitira (4th pada).

    On Friday, Nifty could open between flat to positive, perhaps around 5725, could test 5673 on the low and 5745 on the high.

    ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5500) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5630), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 17-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5681.1 (5705.6), made a Lower High of 5684.35 (5714 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5633.9 (5635.6 was previous low), finally closing at 5660.25 (5648). The Volumes were 123974371 (117415701) - about 19% Lower than average. Nifty closed 12 points higher than the previous close. It was an Lower bar day with below average volumes - about 45% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5670 while intermediate term average is at 5490 and long term average is 5250. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5666, 5655, 5644, 5613, 5598, 5587, 5561, 5515, 5472. While Resistances are placed at , 5687, 5697, 5708, 5739, 5754, 5765, 5791, 5837, 5881.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 2,58,28,150 (2,59,20,050) (-0.35%) and Cost of Carry of the October series was 7%, while Open Interest fell down by -1% . The November series Cost of Carry was 6% and Open Interest went up by 11%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -0.35%.
  • Options

    In the Options Segment, the open interest was 14,03,61,850 (13,55,31,550) the Open Interest went up by about 3.56% which is a significant figure. The Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the October expiry range, for now. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5800 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5500 Strike Index Put Options. PCR rose to 0.87 from 0.84.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is moving sideways as per expectations. Now VIX is actually moving sideways below 20, and unless breaks this level of 20, there isn't much to notice about. VIX closed at 15.17 a -2.57% decrease from previous trading session. ATR was 96. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was poor. The Advance-Decline Ratio was 0.8, as compared with 0.54 on the previous trading day. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 19% Lower and Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 60. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at -0.01. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 47.21 while at the end of previous trading session it was 51.97 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 25.05% while previously it was 24.79%. .
  • US Dollar

    USD lost against INR by about another 6p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pe gged at +0.2%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 26,62,138 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom.
  • Institutional Activity

    Apparently, FII sponsored INDIA SHOPPING FESTIVAL is coming to a close. They had been BOLDLY buying at all levels, but seemed to have slowed down lately, especially after it was reported that Robert Vadehra is bullish on India. They seem to be reevaluating their strategies, especially after last weeks performance, it seemed that their Derivative Segments were handled by Robert Vadehra clones. FIIs were net buyers for 35.54 Crores. They were net Buyers for 10017.87 Crores in the October series (i.e., since 28th Sep 2012). And they are net buyers for 81,672.44 Crores in this year. Whereas DIIs were net BUYERS today for -248.4 Crores. They are net sellers for -4558.19 Crores in current series. Since 1st January 2012 they have sold for -41,310.45 Crores. DIIs have been slowly and continuously liquidating their positions. Most of the volumes figures are originating from institutional desks. FIIs hold positions for a longer period of time. They do what sometimes is referred to as Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH). And DIIs attempt to outsmart them by over trading. But DIIs are continuously liquidating their positions since December 2010. And this year, FIIs are not only "absorbing the DII liquidation', but buying free float from the market irrespective of price levels.

    The Savile Row, Custom Made Pin Stripe Suit wearers, with the attached tags creating more impact than their business cards, who adorn Glass Cabins of the FII offices generally located at, more than warranted exotic locations, have finally woken up and exiting long derivative positions at higher levels rather than lower levels! Perhaps to emphasize - though - without any tangible impact, that they have no drought for talent, both in the chairs that they sit in and others around them. It is strongly recommended that they switch from visiting porn sites to technical sites - which might keep them becoming, a lassi te parrontthe vendor in some Bombay suburbia. Now they are beginning to realize that it's a correction! They were seen exiting Shorts at around 5640 that were taken yesterday, and long positions. They were seen winding Index Call Options, and buying Puts, with their Open Interest in Options segment rose by 2.48%. They took calender spreads in Stocks Futures and added some extra long positions. In Stock options they were seen buying small quantities.

  • Trend

    RSI fell to 55 odd level, whereas ADX increased to 41.65 from 41.85, finally forming a top! VHF fell to 0.5 from 0.49 . With ADX at 40+ and VHF at 50+, Nifty would have started blinking on the radars of Asia Pacific Funds. The volumes are gradually falling now.
  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty has signalled a reversal in short term. Nifty is in the midst of completing a Head and Shoulder. It could easily correct upto 5430 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute*** which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    On Thursday, Nifty could open between flat to positive, perhaps around 5670, could test 5614 on the low and 5685 on the high. Shorts could keep their Hard Stop Loss at 5700.

    ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5490) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5630), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Holy Grail written in Braille

"The secret indicator, which accurately forecasts market prices, and that one dreams of having for his personal use only, is so obvious, that it is inobvious. Contrarily, the secret indicator is not secret at all, but rather, it is the indicator that is best known and most widely used by the majority of participants who are currently trading in the market. The indicator may also be a group of indicators which are in coincidence."

This is the only truth in the market that no one tells...because everyone knows it...

Issue 25, MTA Journal 1986, Printed Page 26.


"Everyone who has ever been involved in a market, whether it is real estate, the stock market, the futures markets, or whatever, has at one time or another dreamt of the secret market indicator or tool that tells you when to buy and sell... and that only you are privy to! Contrarily, this elusive wonder is not secret at all, but rather, it is the indicator or tool most widely used by the majority of participants who are currently involved in that particular market. It may also be a group of indicators or tools that are in coincidence. It can't be anything else, because the market moves in concert with the action of the participants. If the majority believes the market is going to move higher, they are buyers; and as a result of their action, prices move higher. It is so obvious that it is inobvious. Prices will continue to move in the direction favored by the majority of market participants and can seesaw through a number of cycles without a Contrarian situation developing. However, once approximately 70% of the market participants are of like mind, either bearish or bullish, a Contrarian situation is present. As the majority rises above 70%, a change in the direction of prices becomes more imminent and the probability increases that the change in prices will be large. "

Issue 25, MTA Journal 1986, Printed Page 30.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 16-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5705.6(5674.25), made a Higher High of 5714 (5693.7 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5635.6 (5651.05 was previous low), finally closing at 5648 (5687.25). The Volumes were 11,74,15,701 (9,36,93,482) - about 24% Lower than average. Nifty closed 39 points lower than the previous close. It was an Outside bar (bearish engulfing pattern) day with below average volumes - about 58% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the First Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5675 while intermediate term average is at 5480 and long term average is 5245. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5666, 5655, 5644, 5613, 5598, 5587, 5561, 5515, 5472. While Resistances are placed at , 5687, 5697, 5708, 5739, 5754, 5765, 5791, 5837, 5881.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 2,59,20,050 (2,63,84,750) (-1.76%) and Cost of Carry of the October series was 3%, while Open Interest fell down by -2% . The November series Cost of Carry was 5% and Open Interest went up by 7%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -1.76%.
  • Options

    In the Options Segment, the open interest was 13,55,31,550 (13,27,13,900) the Open Interest went up by about 2.12% which is a significant figure. The Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the October expiry range, for now. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5700 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5500 Strike Index Put Options. PCR rose to 0.94 from 0.81.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is moving sideways as per expectations. Now VIX is actually moving sideways below 20, and unless breaks this level of 20, there isn't much to notice about. VIX closed at 15.57 a -2.08% decrease from previous trading session. ATR was 99. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was fair. The Advance-Decline Ratio was .55, as compared with 1.04 on the previous trading day. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 24% Lower and Market Breadth was poor. Money Flow Index now is at 59. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at 0.02. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 51.97 while at the end of previous trading session it was 49.05 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 24.79% while previously it was 25.03%. .
  • US Dollar

    USD lost against INR by about another 30p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at +2.0%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 26,45,685 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom.
  • Institutional Activity

    Apparently, FII sponsored INDIA SHOPPING FESTIVAL is coming to a close. They had been BOLDLY buying at all levels, but seemed to have slowed down lately, especially after it was reported that Robert Vadehra is bullish on India. They seem to be reevaluating their strategies, especially after last weeks performance, it seemed that their Derivative Segments were handled by Robert Vadehra clones. FIIs were net sellers for -204.19 Crores. They were net Buyers for 9982.33 Crores in the October series (i.e., since 28th Sep 2012). And they are net buyers for 81,636.9 Crores in this year. Whereas DIIs were net BUYERS today for 595.39 Crores. They are net sellers for -4,309.79 Crores in current series. Since 1st January 2012 they have sold for -41,062.05 Crores. DIIs have been slowly and continuously liquidating their positions. Most of the volumes figures are originating from institutional desks. FIIs hold positions for a longer period of time. They do what sometimes is referred to as Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH). And DIIs attempt to outsmart them by over trading. But DIIs are continuously liquidating their positions since December 2010. And this year, FIIs are not only "absorbing the DII liquidation', but buying free float from the market irrespective of price levels.

    The Savile Row, Custom Made Pin Stripe Suit wearers, with the attached tags creating more impact than their business cards, who adorn Glass Cabins of the FII offices generally located at, more than warranted exotic locations, have finally woken up and exiting long derivative positions at higher levels rather than lower levels! Perhaps to emphasize - though - without any tangible impact, that they have no drought for talent, both in the chairs that they sit in and others around them. It is strongly recommended that they switch from visiting porn sites to technical sites - which might keep them becoming, a lassi te parrontthe vendor in some Bombay suburbia. Now they are beginning to realize that it's a correction! They were seen exiting Longs at around 5710 that were taken yesterday, and Clearing more Shorts around 5640. They were seen winding Index Call Options, and buying Puts, with their Open Interest in Options segment rose by 1%. They cleared all long positions taken yesterday in Stocks Futures and added some short positions. In Stock options they were seen unwining small positions.

  • Trend

    RSI fell to 54 odd level, whereas ADX increased to 41.85 from 42.08, finally forming a top! VHF fell to 0.49 from 0.5 . With ADX at 40+ and VHF at 50+, Nifty would have started blinking on the radars of Asia Pacific Funds. The volumes are gradually falling now.
  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty has signalled a reversal in short term. It could easily correct upto 5450 odd levels. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute* which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    On Tuesday, Nifty could open between flat to positive, perhaps around 5655, could test 5614 on the low and 5685 on the high. Shorts could keep their Hard Stop Loss at 5700.

    ***"Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do." According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5450) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5636), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer here. Thank You.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Daily Update: Short Term Outlook

  • Price Action for 15-Oct-2012

    Nifty opened at 5674.25 (5681.7), made a Lower High of 5693.7 (5725 was the previous high) and a Lower low of 5651.05 (5659.35 was previous low), finally closing at 5687.25 (5676.05). The Volumes were 9,36,93,482 (13,00,76,802) - about 40% Lower than average. Nifty closed 11 points higher than the previous close. It was a Lower bar day with below average volumes - about 99% of standard deviation (volumes) below the mean, though it was not an outlier figure. Today Nifty closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range, while in last trading session it closed in the Second Quartile of it's True Range.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5690 while intermediate term average is at 5470 and long term average is 5240. Market Structure is technically Bullish. Supports are placed at 5666, 5655, 5644, 5613, 5598, 5587, 5561, 5515, 5472. While Resistances are placed at , 5687, 5697, 5708, 5739, 5754, 5765, 5791, 5837, 5881.
  • Futures

    The OI in futures is 2,63,84,750 (2,65,84,600) (-0.75%) and Cost of Carry of the October series was 10%, while Open Interest fell down by -1% . The November series Cost of Carry was 6% and Open Interest went up by 4%.The overall Open Interest in S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures went down by -0.75%.
  • Options

    In the Options Segment, the open interest was 13,27,13,900 the Open Interest went down by about -1.85% which is a significant figure. The Highest Open Interest is in 5800 Strike Calls and this might define the upper cap of the October expiry range, for now. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5400 Strike Calls. As for Index Put Options the Highest Open Interest is in 5500 Strike Puts. The largest change was noticed in 5600 Strike Index Put Options. PCR rose to 0.94 from 0.81.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is moving sideways as per expectations. Now VIX is actually moving sideways below 20, and unless breaks this level of 20, there isn't much to notice about. VIX closed at 15.9 a -3.58% decrease from previous trading session. ATR was 101. ATR is keeping above 60, because of lower circuit on Friday, 5th of October 2012. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and perhaps during range bound movement and vice versa. Moreover Nifty hasn't seen a Corrective "B Elliott Wave" *** of Intermediate degree. So this is uncharted or unknown territory for most Investors and Swing Traders.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was fair. The Advance-Decline Ratio was 1.04, as compared with 0.78 on the previous trading day. Noted that the AD Ratio exhausts within three days of any breakout or breakdown!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes are slowly falling, owing to the lack of interest and talent, among the white portfolio managers. Today Volumes were 40% Lower and Market Breadth was unitary. Money Flow Index now is at 54. While poor CMF is going back to hibernation after dilly-dallying with 0 line at 0.05. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 49.05 while at the end of previous trading session it was 45.44 , on BSE. While on NSE it was 25.03% while previously it was 29.85%. .
  • US Dollar

    USD gained against INR by about another 42p (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest was pegged at +2.0%, and Open Interest at the End of the Day was 24,95,267 on NSE. USDINR pair has created a short term V-Shape bottom.
  • Institutional Activity

    FII sponsored INDIA SHOPPING FESTIVAL is on. Buy anything and everything that comes your way. Stocks, Stocks' Derivatives, Interest Rate Derivatives, the list is endless. They had been BOLDLY buying at all levels, but seemed to have slowed down lately, especially after it was reported that Robert Vadehra is bullish about India. They seem to be reevaluating their strategies, especially after last weeks performance, it seemed that their Derivative Segments were handled by Robert Vadehra types. I would consider Nifty to be highly overbought at this level, but FIIs were net buyers for 20.16 Crores. They were net Buyers for 10,186.52 Crores in the October series (i.e., since 28th Sep 2012). And they are net buyers for 81,841.09 Crores in this year. Whereas DIIs were net SELLERS today for -85.52 Crores (sigh, I am sick of reporting that they have been selling for years). They are net sellers for -4905.18 Crores in current series. Since 1st January 2012 they have sold for -41657.44 Crores. DIIs have been slowly and continuously liquidating their positions. Most of the volumes figures are originating from institutional desks. FIIs hold positions for a longer period of time. They do what sometimes is referred to as Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH). And DIIs attempt to outsmart them by over trading. But DIIs are continuously liquidating their positions since December 2010. And this year, FIIs are not only "absorbing the DII liquidation', but buying free float from the market irrespective of price levels.

    The Savile Row, Custom Made Pin Stripe Suit wearers, with the attached tags creating more impact than their business cards, who adorn Glass Cabins of the FII offices generally located at, more than warranted exotic locations, have finally woken up and exiting long derivative positions at higher levels rather than lower levels! Perhaps to emphasize - though - without any tangible impact, that they have no drought for talent, both in the chairs that they sit in and others around them. It is strongly recommended that they switch from visiting porn sites to technical sites - which might keep them becoming, a lassi te parrontthe vendor in some Bombay suburbia. Now they are beginning to realize that it's a correction! They were seen exiting Shorts and Entering Longs around 5660. They were seen encashing Index Put Options, with their Open Interest in Options segment fell by -0.67%. They created small long positions in Stocks Futures. In Stock options they purchased calls and wrote puts.

  • Trend

    RSI rose to 59 odd level, whereas ADX increased to 42.08 from 42.06, finally forming a top! VHF rose to 0.5 from 0.5 . With ADX at 40+ and VHF at 50+, Nifty would have started blinking on the radars of Asia Pacific Funds. The volumes are gradually falling now.
  • Outlook

    The Long term trend and the Medium Term trend seems to be up. But Nifty is kind of consolidating between 5600 and 5800. Seems like Nifty is doing 4th Minute* which sometime take, a bit longer than forever, to complete. A break of 5570 could indicate a change of Short Term Trend, and negate the idea. With FIIs mostly regrouping about their next strategy, it seems Nifty could, for some time, get stuck in some kind of a range, as what usually happens before a big move.

    On Tuesday, Nifty could open between flat to positive, perhaps around 5685, could test 5650 on the low and 5715 on the high. Shorts could keep their Hard Stop Loss at 5725.

    ***According to Elliott Wave theory, Nifty is in [4th Minute Wave] of the {C Minor Wave} of (B Intermediate Wave) of the [4th Primary Wave] of {1st Cycle Wave} of (1st Super Cycle Wave) of [1st Grand Super Cycle Wave]. Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Intermediate Term Average (5450) and 3 day Swing Low Adjusted (5636), and sideways otherwise

    Please read the Disclaimer. Thank You.