Friday, August 31, 2012

31 August 2012

  • Closing Data

    Nifty opened at 5298.2 ,made a lower high of 5303.25 (5342.8 was the high on Thursday) and fell to 5238.9, finally closing at 5258.5. Volumes were about 22% higher than normal. Nifty accelerated in downward direction following the poor GDP data, which was lowest in 3 years. About an year back, writing on this blog, the author had pointed out that GDP growth would eventually fall to 6% or below, while the state media, and blue channels on idiot box, were talking about 8 to 9 percent growth, some sensationalists were even talking about a double digit growth. At that time it was pointed out that GDP growth was lagging the inflation, and somewhere down the line all the state statistics is crap, a big lie or mass opium. Same is true as of now. Although the data released to day shows growth on papers, and the Government machinery must be patting on their own back, while it is a matter of grave concern. The deficit financing techniques, steering the economy clear of any threat of recession has it's own price, which the country is paying through runaway inflation. It has done any good to anyone but the lower strata of society would bear the burnt of outdated economic measures (read manoeuvres) employed by the babus of North Block. They could always plead that they are not economists, and the economic advisory committees formed are too academic to be be of any practical use to the country. Moreover there are political constraints, like didis, ammas, and a bunch of aging jokers called opposition.

    So what needs to be done? Policies should be formulated on both Central and State levels, to put a basic infrastructure in place , conducive to business, in a time bound manner. Efforts should be made to seek private partnership, to best utilise the resources at the disposal of the country.

    When we talk about something even 200 years old we look down at it with great contempt, assuming that people of bygone era were too simplistic and possessed little knowledge. But when it comes to economics and finance we are sticking to direct taxes. Does that make sense Mr P. Chidambram?
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5310, while medium term is at 5260 and long term is 5120. Thereby, maintaining a bullish structure of the market. Nifty closed below 5313 on Friday, 31st August 2012, the Market as a whole would continue to remain rangebound for at least another month. With the kind of mad shopping the FIIs are indulging in, it seems that the scenario would change sooner than later.
  • Futures

    The COC of the September series went up by 4% from 4% to 8% while open interest went down by 4%, thereby indicating short covering, owing mainly to dumb money and Noise Traders. The October series Open Interest went up by 5% as compared to 5% yesterday, with COC increasing by 1%, probably indicating build up of more short positions. All this basically indicating rollover and fresh short positions into the October series. The rollover activity was more pronounced for noise traders than smart money.
  • Options

    A major build up of positions in in 5500 Strike Calls might define the upper cap of the current range. The largest change in Open Interest figures was noticed in 5400 calls. As for Index Put Options 5200 Strike Puts continue to be written in a brisk manner. The largest change was noticed in 5000 Strike Index Put Options. Call Option Writers continue to far outnumber the Put Option Writers. The sort of confusion that prevailed yesterday, among the option writers, seems to have cleared off, with a clear understanding that Nifty would test 5200 odd levels, in next two three trading sessions, so until then enjoy the time decay. PCR continues in a downtrend, and unless suddenly crosses 1.3 it would continue to trend downward. This view is based on observing the Options Derivatives of the current, mid and far series.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is very low even though Nifty has declined more than 190 points from the swing high in a linear fashion. Now VIX is actually in an uptrend, if it doesn't break the important 15.9 odd levels and ATR continues to be low at 59, these are the lowest readings since August 2010. Prior to that such low readings were registered in 2006! Unless ATR crosses 60 level, it should be considered to be trending down.Partly the reason is that ATR tends to fall in August, and peak in October. To overgeneralise, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and vice versa.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was very good, quite unexpectedly. The Advance-Decline Ratio was 0.76 today as compared with 1 yesterday, surprisingly second highest value in last six sessions!!! The present up-move wasn't supported by Breadth Indicators at all! Now they are beginning to exhaust, indicating oncoming whipsaws and sideways trading. This could also indicate that it's the blue chip companies that are being subjected to selling pressure.
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes had been drying up lately, but for last three days it is on the rise. Volumes were about 22% higher than normal. Even the last up-move failed to bring any cheers from the Investors, and the current down, move would shoo them away. Money Flow Index is at 38, the same reading as yesterday, now, far from oversold range, and sort of toying with the idea of turning up again; while CMF is still in positive territory. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 45.74 as compared to yesterday's 46.83%, on BSE, which is returning to it's normal value, slowly. While on NSE it was still poor 27.90%.
  • US Dollar

    Rupee weakened against US Dollar by 10p. OI seems to have disappeared today. Volumes were little better than yesterday, which were lowest since 28th February 2012. Probably no one wants to take any risk on Friday, when the worst GDP report in last 3 years was out, shaking off whatever little confidence that the speculators had in the economy.
  • Institutional Activity

    FIIs were building Long Positions in cash segment as if there was no tomorrow, in the previous series. Today they were net sellers for 211 Crores. And they have purchased 52,058 Crores in this year. Whereas DIIs were net sellers today for 172 Crores. Since 1st January 2012 they have sold for 28,271 Crores. So basically, FIIs are buying and DIIs are selling. FIIs take positions for a longer period of time. They sort of buy and hold. And DIIs try to outsmart them by overtrading. So probably DIIs are looking to buy at lower levels than currently prevailing levels. FIIs have exited most of their positions in Index Futures, with almost a 8% fall in their Open Interest figures, today. They are back to writing 5200 Puts I guess. It was also observed that they had been taking Short positions in Stocks Futures, a greater part of which they have closed out today and yesterday. In Stock Options the FIIs are briskly writing options, as if it is a plundering opportunity. This generally happens when Markets are likely to get rangebound after a trending period. Also since VIX is continuously rising it is beginning to make sense to write Options as of now with a view of holding onto the open positions for 10 days or so, when VIX also begins to fall.
  • Trend

    RSI is at 51, whereas ADX slipped to 17.00 from 17.04. Nifty seems to be in a mild uptrend, although correcting as of now. The volumes are low due to lack of retail participation. This is a standard text book scenario. Large Institutions, corporate speculators are accumulating stocks at every price available, while the market is rangebound, and finally when it begins to move North (of Alaska!!) the retail investors join the party.
  • Outlook

    Nifty could STILL correct up to 5120 without disturbing the mild uptrend, but probably won't go that deep. On the other hand Nifty would have to trade and close above 5370 to remain buoyant, but it seems market participants were nervous ahead of the GDP Numbers and FX Reserves Disclosures on Friday, 31st August, and they would take a fresh view of the current scenario after the weekend. Since Nifty has closed around medium term average 5250, it has a bright chance of testing 5160 odd levels and then maybe 5120 and 5080 . NO short covering took place today. All these things point to a clear mandate about the next move. But all in all Nifty continues to be in a mild uptrend and correcting, so right now it is correcting.....


Nifty would be bearish if it is below the Medium Term Average (5250) and 3 day Swing Low (5238), and sideways otherwise




Intraday Scenario


Whether we like it or not, the PNF Chart is bearish :( The bearish signal would be negated above 5350

Color Codes
Green: Buy Signal
Red: Sell Signal
Yellow: Double top/Double bottom
Purple:Ascending Triple Top Breakout/Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown

Thursday, August 30, 2012

August Expiry


  • Closing Data

    Nifty opened at 5268.6 (gapped down), made a lower high of 5342.8 (5345.50 was the high on Wednesday) and fell to 5255.05, finally closing at 5315.05. Volumes were about 70% higher than normal. The day ended up almost being a key reversal day, had it at least closed up above the short term average.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5330, while medium term is at 5250 and long term is 5120. Thereby, maintaining a bullish structure of the market. The Predating Traders are trying their level best to shake off the Noise Traders and Dumb money off the pivot 5313. Remember if Nifty closes above 5313 on Friday, 31st August 2012, the entire game would change from rangebound to buy at every dip. With the kind of mad shopping the FIIs are indulging in, it seems that the scenario would change sooner than later.
  • Futures

    The COC of the September series fell by 5% from 9% to 4% while open interest went up by 33%, thereby indicating short build up, owing mainly to dumb money and Noise Traders. The October series Open Interest went up by 5% as compared to 14% yesterday, with COC decreasing by 3%, probably indicating build up of more short positions. The overall Open Interest in Futures went up by about 3%, so basically indicating rollover and fresh short positions into the September series. The rollover activity is more pronounced for noise traders than smart money.
  • Options

    A major build up of positions in in 5600 Strike Calls might define the upper cap of the current range. Similarly 5200 Strike Puts continue to be written in a brisk manner. But Call Option Writers far outnumbered the Put Option Writers. The largest changes were observed at 5300 strike for Call Options and for 5200 Strike Put Options. So there is a sort of confusion among the option writers., which indicates that these option writers are Dumb Money/Noise Traders. Till yesterday option traders were looking at a range of 200 points between 5200 and 5400 for the current week. This view is based on observing the Options Derivatives of the current, mid and far series.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is very low even though Nifty has declined more than 125 points from the swing high in a linear fashion. Now VIX is actually in an uptrend, if it doesn't break the important 15.9 odd levels and ATR continues to be low at 58, these are the lowest readings since August 2010. Prior to that such low readings were registered in 2006! Unless ATR crosses 60 level, it should be considered to be trending down.Partly the reason is that ATR tends to fall in August, and peak in October. To overgeneralize, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and vice versa.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth was very good, quite unexpectedly. The Advance-Decline Ratio was 1 today as compared with .45 yesterday, surprisingly highest value in last four sessions!!! The present up-move wasn't supported by Breadth Indicators at all! Now they are not happy with the fall it seems ;). The reason for an improved reading could be ascribed to the fact that today being the expiry day, some short covering took place in the dying moments, especially by FIIs and DIIs.
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes had been drying up lately, but for last two days it is on the rise. Volumes were about 70% higher than normal. Even the last up-move failed to bring any cheers from the Investors. Money Flow Index is at 38 now, far from oversold range, while CMF is still in positive territory. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 46.83%, on BSE, which is returning to it's normal value. While on NSE it was still poor 26.95%.
  • US Dollar

    Rupee appreciated against US Dollar by 8p. OI seems to have disappeared today. Volumes were lowest since 28th February 2012. Probably no one wants to take any risk for Friday, when the worst GDP report in last 5 years is to be announced.
  • Institutional Activity

    FIIs are building up Long Positions in cash segment as if there is no tomorrow. Today they were net buyers for 2306 Crores. They have purchased stocks for 10,288 Crores in the current series (i.e., since 27th July 2012). And 52,269 Crores in this year. Whereas DIIs were net buyers today for 328 Crores. They have sold stocks worth 4796 Crores in current series. Since 1st January 2012 they have sold for 28,099 Crores. So basically, FIIs are buying and DIIs are selling. FIIs take positions for a longer period of time. So probably DIIs are looking to buy at lower levels than currently prevailing levels. And they did that today. FIIs have exited most of their positions in Index Futures, with almost a 40% fall in their Open Interest figures. In Index Options it seems they have closed their positions in 5500 & 5400 Strike Calls. It was also observed that they had been taking Short positions in Stocks Futures, a greater part of which they have closed out today itself. So probably they are going to hammer a particular sector after the August Expiry. They are exiting their positions (covered calls???) in Stock Options segments. This generally happens when Markets rise, as Institutions write covered calls. Seems like these people are preparing for a definite move upward???
  • Trend

    RSI is at 51, whereas ADX slipped to 17.04 from 17.39. Nifty seems to be in a mild uptrend, although this uptrend was clearly not supported by Volumes. The volumes are low due to lack of retail participation. This is a standard text book scenario. Large Institutions, corporate speculators are accumulating stocks at every price available, while the market is rangebound, and finally when it begins to move North (of Alaska!!) the retail investors join the party.
  • Outlook

    Nifty could STILL correct up to 5120 without disturbing the mild uptrend, but probably won't go that deep. On the other hand Nifty would have to trade and close above 5370 to remain buoyant, but it seems market participants are nervous ahead of the GDP Numbers and FX Reserves Disclosures on Friday, 31st August. Since Nifty has closed around magical number 5313 and above 5310 it has a chance of eating Stop Losses of Shorts. Some short covering took place in the last half an hour today. All these things point to indecision and confusion in the market as to about the next move, which also indicates that it's the noise traders/dumb money taking chances around. But all in all Nifty continues to be in a mild uptrend, so if left to it's own ways, it would rise....
  • Positional Calls

    Buy Colgate Palmolive below 1200 SL = 1165, target = 1270
    Sell Tech Mahindra above 800 SL = 825, target = 760



Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Medium Term Average (5250) and 3 day Swing Low (5255), and vice-versa




Intraday Point & Figure Charts




Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Nifty accelerates in the downward direction

  • Closing Data

    Nifty opened at 5343.05, made a lower high of 5345.5 (5359.25 was the high on Tuesday) and fell to 5282.7, finally closing at 5287.8. Volumes were about 30% higher than normal .
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5340, while medium term is at 5250 and long term is 5120. Thereby, maintaining a bullish structure of the market. 5275 would also be a support for tomorrow.
  • Futures

    The COC of the current series went up from 39% to 61% while open interest reduced by 20%, thereby indicating short covering. The September series Open Interest went up by 32% as compared to 93% yesterday, with COC only marginally decreasing by 1%, probably indicating build up of more short positions. The overall Open Interest in Futures fell by about 1%, so basically indicating rollover into the September series. The rollover activity is more pronounced for noise traders than smart money.
  • Options

    A major build up of positions in in 5400 Strike Calls might define the upper cap of the current range. Similarly 5200 Strike Puts are being written in a brisk manner. But Call Option Writers far outnumbered the Put Option Writers. The largest changes were also observed at these two strikes for Calls and Puts respectively. So option traders are looking at a range of 200 points between 5200 and 5400 for the current week. This view is based on observing the Options Derivatives of the current, mid and far series.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is very low even though Nifty has declined more than 160 points from the swing high in a linear fashion. Now VIX is actually i an uptrend, if it doesn't break the important 15.9 odd levels and ATR continues to be low at 56, these are the lowest readings since August 2010. Prior to that such low readings were registered in 2006! Partly the reason is that ATR tends to fall in August, and peak in October. To overgeneralise, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and vice versa.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth wasn't very good, as expected. The Advance-Decline Ratio was .45 today as compared with .31 yesterday, surprisingly highest value in last three sessions!!! The present up-move wasn't supported by Breadth Indicators at all! Now they are not happy with the fall it sems ;)
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes had been drying up lately, but today was an exception. Even the last up-move failed to bring any cheers from the Investors. Money Flow Index is at 48.5 now, far from oversold range, while CMF is still in positive territory. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 48.56%, on BSE, which is returning to it's normal value. While on NSE it was still poor 27.24%.
  • US Dollar

    Rupee appreciated against US Dollar by 10p. Today it was Currency Derivatives Settlement day, so ideally the Open Interest should have decreased, at least notionally. but there was a huge addition in the Open Interest Value. The OI went up by 10%. Volumes were heavy.
  • Institutional Activity

    FIIs are building up Long Positions in cash segment as if there is no tomorrow. Today they were net buyers for 143.3 Crores. They have purchased stocks for 7981 Crores in the current series (i.e., since 27th July 2012). And 49,962 Crores in this year. Whereas DIIs were net sellers today for 239 Crores. They have sold stocks worth 5363 Crores in current series. Since 1st January 2012 they have sold for 28,667 Crores. So basically, FIIs are buying and DIIs are selling. FIIs take positions for a longer period of time. So probably DIIs are looking to buy at lower levels than currently prevailing levels. They are holding onto their positions in Index Futures, with almost a 3% fall in their Open Interest figures. In Index Options it seems they have closed their positions in 5500 Strike Calls. It was also observed that they have been taking Short positions in Stocks Futures, so probably they are going to hammer a particular sector after the August Expiry. Needless to state that they are exiting their positions (covered calls???) and writing puts options in Stock Options segments. Seems like these people are preparing for a definite move.
  • Trend

    RSI is at 48, whereas ADX slipped to 17.39 from 18.3. Nifty seems to be in a mild uptrend, although this uptrend was clearly not supported by Volumes.
  • Outlook

    Nifty could correct up to 5120 without disturbing the mild uptrend, but probably won't go that deep. On the other hand Nifty would have to trade and close above 5400 to remain buoyant, but it seems market participants are nervous ahead of the Expiry tomorrow and GDP Numbers and FX Reserves Disclosures on 31st August. Since Nifty has closed below 5300 it has gained downward momentum. No short covering took place, today. It seems that no short covering woul happen in this series anymore.


Nifty would be bullish if it is above the Medium Term Average (5250) and 3 day Swing Low (5282), and vice versa




Tuesday, August 28, 2012

End of the Day Analysis and Views

  • Closing Data

    Nifty opened at 5348.05, made a lower high of 5359.25 (5399 was the high on Monday) and fell to 5312.6, finally closing at 5334.6. Volumes were normal and so was turnover .
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5365, while medium term is at 5250 and long term is 5120. Thereby, maintaining a bullish structure of the market.
  • Futures

    The COC of the current series went up from 28% to 39% while open interest reduced by 14%, thereby indicating short covering. The September series Open Interest went up by whopping 93%, with COC only marginally increasing by 1%, probably indicating build up of short positions. The overall Open Interest in Futures went up by over 8%, most of which happened in the September Series, wherein the Open Interest increased by 93% with only 1% increase in COC.
  • Options

    A major build up of positions in in 5400 Strike Calls might define the upper cap of the current range. Similarly 5200 Strike Puts are being written in a brisk manner. So option traders are looking at a range of 200 points between 5200 and 5400 for the current week. This view is based on observing the Options Derivatives of the current, mid and far series.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is very low even though Nifty has declined more than 115 points from the swing high. VIX actually decreased by 0.73% and ATR was very low at 55, this is the lowest reading since August 2010. Prior to that such a low value was registered in 2006! Partly the reason is that ATR tends to fall in August, and peak in October. To overgeneralise, low volatility is generally observed to occur at Market tops, and vice versa.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth wasn't very good, as expected. The Advance-Decline Ratio was .31 today as compared with .42 yesterday, which is not very bad either! The present up-move wasn't supported by Breadth Indicators at all!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes have been drying up lately, but today was an exception. Even the last up-move failed to bring any cheers from the Investors. Money Flow Index is at 56 now, far from oversold range, while CMF is still in positive territory. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was 47%, on BSE, which is returning to it's normal value. While on NSE it was still poor 27%.
  • US Dollar

    Although Rupee weakened against US Dollar but there wasn't much change in the Open Interest Value. Volumes were very good.
  • Institutional Activity

    Institutions are building up Long Positions in cash segment as if there is no tomorrow. However their interest is falling in Stock Options. They were out with full force, and have added to their positions in Index Futures, with almost a 10% rise in their Open Interest figures. In Index Options it seems they have closed their positions in 5500 Strike Calls. It was also observed that they have been taking Short positions in Stocks Futures, so probably they are going to hammer a particular sector after the August Expiry. Needless to state that they are exiting their positions (covered calls???) in Stock Options segments. Seems like these people are preparing for a definite move.
  • Trend

    RSI is at 54, whereas ADX slipped to 18.3 from 19.5. Nifty seems to be in a mild uptrend, although this uptrend was clearly not supported by Volumes.
  • Outlook

    Nifty could correct up to 5120 without disturbing the mild uptrend, but probably won?t go that deep. On the other hand Nifty would have to trade and close above 5400 to remain buoyant, but it seems market participants are nervous ahead of the expiry and GDP Numbers. But as long as Nifty closes above 5300 it is in uptrend. it tested the 5313 support today, at which level short covering took place. It seems that short covering is happening in instalments, due to very thin volumes.
  • Stocks to Watch

    Buy SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FIN CO. above 625, SL = 590, target=700 (Positional)
    Sell JINDAL STEEL & POWER LTD,above 370, SL = 390, target=300.(Positional)

Nifty would continue to be bullish as long as it is above the Medium Term Average (5250) and 3 day Swing Low (5313)

How to trade (Reposted)

  • Q:How do you trade in the market?
  • A:There are mainly two ways of trading, one is to follow the trend, another is to exploit the reaction, or retraces that come from time to time in a trending or rangebound market;
  • Q:How is one different from the other?
  • A:In following a trend, firstly, one has to identify a trend, then one has to keep a trailing Stop Loss, for safeguarding profits and for the fear of sudden reversal, and secondly, one has to calculate the targets which could be the points of Resistance or some levels.

    In reactionary trading, you try to determine the levels at and around which the market would be Overbought or Oversold, and a retrace would happen. These are very short term reversals, or corrections. They happen fast, and present with two opportunities, viz, opportunity to trade it contra trend, and opportunity to enter in the direction of the trend;
  • Q:How would I calculate such points, and what kind of charts do I require?
  • A:The calculation is complex, since it requires the entire database of quotes to know the precise levels, but I have been publishing the same here for quite some time now, and would continue to do so, as long as possible. And Graphical depiction of the quotes is not needed, hence no charts required;
  • Q:Which OB OS Levels do you use?
  • A:Weekly;
  • Q:How do I Calculate Stop Loss?
  • A:Very difficult Question...I have nearly forgotten that Stop Loss is something to be used! I thought it was something to discuss when you met strangers apart from the weather! Anyway Keep a 3% SL of the Nifty Value, like if you short at 5000 3% of 5000 would be, 150 points, so your SL should be 5150, if you go long at 4500 3% of 4500 would be 135 points, so your SL should be 4365, but this is only for your own amusement, I assure you, I had my last SL hit in August 2009, while trying to go after a trend, and with Allah's grace, it was also my last order till date to have gone in loss! HE IS INDEED THE MOST MERCIFUL AND THE MOST BENEFICENT.
  • Q:What is your success rate?
  • A:I started looking at this concept starting from 5th June 2009, since then, using this method, I have had, ummm let me invent, 2 SL hits, (I am lying, there weren't any) and the success rate is ummm, okay 95% looks good, ( I have developed this bad habit, following in the steps of that bird keeper, Success Rate is much higher, almost highest).
  • Q:Is there something else that you use apart from the OB OS Levels in your trading?
  • A:Yes, I like Point and Figure charts, they remind me of my childhood when I would play tic tac toe with my cousin sister;
  • Q: Anything else apart from that?
  • A:Divergences in two dozen indicators,half a dozen price overlays, Elliott wave theory with my own modifications, All kinds of charts etc.,
  • Q:Are you lying again?
  • A:God damn that bird keeper

Monday, August 27, 2012

Daily Outlook

  • Closing Data

    Nifty opened at 5387.85, made a double top at 5399 (5399 was also a high on Friday) and fell to 5346.65, finally closing at 5350. Volumes were pretty low and turnover was the lowest since 2nd of August 2012.
  • Moving Averages and Pivot Points

    The Short term average is 5380, while 50 DMA is at 5243 and 200 DMA is 5116. Thereby, maintaining a bullish structure of the market.
  • Futures

    The COC of the current series went up from 18% to 28% while open interest reduced by 7%, thereby indicating short covering. The September series Open Interest went up by whopping 74%, with COC only marginally increasing by 1%, probably indicating build up of long positions.
  • Options

    A good build up in 5600 Strike Calls might define the upper cap of this up-move for the current week. Similarly 5300 Strike Puts are being traded in wholesale.
  • Volatility

    Volatility is very low even though Nifty has declined about 100 points from the swing high. VIX only marginally increased by 1.9% and ATR was very low at 55, this is the lowest reading since August 2010. Prior to that such a low value was registered in 2006! Partly the reason is that ATR tends to fall in August, and peak in October.
  • Market Breadth

    Market Breadth wasn't very good, as expected. The Advance-Decline Ratio was .42, which is not very bad either! The present up-move wasn't supported by Breadth Indicators at all!
  • Volumes

    Cash Volumes have been drying up lately. Even the present up-move failed to bring any cheers from the Investors. Money Flow Index is still above 60, while CMF is still in positive territory. Delivered Quantity to Traded Quantity was above 50%, (huh!) on BSE, which signified buying interest from some quarters. While on NSE it was still poor 28%. Intriguing!
  • Forex

    There was some profit booking in USD Futures. although it only Marginally increased by 20 paise for current series.
  • Institutional Activity

    Institutions are building up Long Positions in cash segment as if there is no tomorrow. However their interest is falling in Stock Options. Seems like these people are preparing for a definite move.
  • Trend

    RSI is at 56, whereas ADX is at 19.5 rising from a low of 16.87. Nifty seems to be in a mild uptrend, although this uptrend is clearly not supported by Volumes.
  • Outlook

    Nifty could correct upto 5120 without disturbing the mild uptrend, but probably won’t go that deep. On the other hand Nifty would have to trade and close above 5400 to remain buoyant, but it seems market participants are nervous ahead of the expiry and GDP Numbers. But as long as Nifty trades above 5313 it is in uptrend.


Nifty would continue to be bullish as long as it is above the 50 day Moving Average (5243) and 3 day Swing Low (5346.65)

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Coming back to life

  • Nifty would be rangebound if in the current week it trades between 5210 and 5410. It'd be overbought above 5479.
  • Nifty would develop a Negative Bias if it closes below 5120, on any weekday. But as long as it is trading between 5220 and 5380, it would be rangebound with Positive Bias. Positive Bias means a tendency to attain higher levels - weak positive bias means mild uptrend.
  • Prominent Supports are at 5260 and 5310. Resistances are at 5479 and 5540.
  • Weekly ADX 14 is at 10.63 improving from last week's reading of 10.38, which was the lowest reading for S&P CNX Nifty Index since it's inception. The RSI is at 59, continuing to hover below 65 since December 2010. Yet there doesn't seem to be any indication of any major breakout or breakdown - unless Nifty Index closes above 5313 for the Current Month
  • Daily Charts suggest that 5250 is a Major Resistance turned Major Support, which was taken in a gap. Also, a daily close of 5415 is required to resume the uptrend, as long as it closes below 5400, it might continue to trade sideways or test lower levels such as 5313 and 5250.
  • There are no major triggers till 31st of August 2012, and Nifty is likely to trade 100 - 150 points range until then.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Phir Wahi Dil Laya Hun

Daily Outlook on Nifty Bank Nifty, and Speculators Pet Stocks, to be restarted soon. Comments and suggestions are welcome. Inshallah

****************************************************************

This is what I have just received in the mail...
Sir,

What is the procedure for set-up of tri-monitor on a PC?

Sam Cambatta


SAM, kudos for finding out that me and Anand Lal Shimpi started out at the same time, with me providing inputs for WIPROS and RT Outsourcings and Anand blogging about nonsense. Right?

Setting up three Displays with a single PC is simple.
Buy a couple of multi display videocards for your PC preferably NVIDIA (maybe GEFORCE 6XX Series). Install them, connect all three displays, and read this article:

http://daggle.com/my-multimonitor-setup-three-screens-for-one-computer-76

Sam, perhaps I have just inadvertently marked your comment as SPAM.

So Goodbye SAM
Hello Samantha (FOX)

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Eid Mubarak

  • Nifty would be rangebound if in the current week it trades between 5170 and 5380. It'd be overbought above 5450.
  • Nifty would develop a Negative Bias if it closes below 5110, on any weekday. But as long as it is trading between 5170 and 5380, it would be rangebound with Positive Bias. Positive Bias means a tendency to attain higher levels - weak positive bias means mild uptrend.
  • Prominent Supports are at 5250 and 5300. Resistances are at 5410 and 5479.
  • Weekly ADX 14 is at 10.38, which is the lowest reading for S&P CNX Nifty Index since it's inception. The RSI is at 58, hovering below 65 since December 2010. Yet there doesn't seem to be any indication of any major breakout or breakdown - unless Nifty Index closes above 5313 for the Current Month
  • Daily Charts suggest that 5250 is a Major Resistance turned Major Support, which was taken in a gap.
  • There are no major triggers currently, and Nifty is likely to trade 100 - 150 points range. Although some weakness is visible in weekly charts.

Monday, August 13, 2012

The Living Daylights

  • Nifty would be rangebound if during the current week it trades between 5120 and 5340.
  • Nifty would develop a Negative Bias if it closes below 5100, on any weekday. But as long as it is trading between 5120 and 5340, it would be rangebound with Positive Bias.
  • Prominent Supports are at 5140 and 5100. Rsistances are at 5400 and 5475.
  • Weekly ADX 14 is at 10.4, which is the lowest reading for S&P CNX Nifty Index since it's inception. The RSI is at 56, hovering below 65 since December 2010. Yet there doesn't seem to be any indication of any major breakout or breakdown - unless Nifty Index closes above 5313 for the Current Month
  • Daily Charts suggest that 5250 is a Major Resistance turned Major Support, which was taken in a gap.
  • There are no major triggers currently, and Nifty is likely to trade in a 100 - 150 points range.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Janie's Got a Gun

  • Nifty continues to be rangebound, between 5080 and 5290.
  • Nifty would develop a Negative Bias if it closes below 5187, on any weekday. But as long as it is trading between 5187 and 5290, it would be rangebound with Positive Bias.
  • Prominent Supports are at 5140 and 5100. Rsistances are at 5290 and 5313.
  • Weekly ADX 14 is at 10.6, which is the lowest reading for S&P CNX Nifty Index since it's inception. The RSI is at 52, hovering below 65 since December 2010. Yet there doesn't seem to be any indication of any major breakout or breakdown.
  • Daily Charts suggest that 5250 is a major resistance, which could be taken in a gap. If that happens any gap created around 5250 would be filled.
  • Intraday Charts suggest some weakness on Monday, that could carry on till Tuesday
  • New Trading System, which would complement the existing BSAR System, would be announced after the Updated 5 EMA System has been published