Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Monthly Outlook

  • The Objective of Monthly Outlook is to look at long term prospects of Indian Stock market. It would also be helpful to investors, who buy and hold for at least three years.
  • The S&P CNX Nifty Index would be trading sideways, as long as it is between 4890 to 5490. The short term mean is at 5190. As long as it is trading sideways, it will keep reversing towards short term mean.
  • The 5313 is an important level, if Nifty closes above this level, it could go to 5520 - 5670 levels. Also it means that if Nifty closes above 5313 in August Closing, the Market Structure would change to buy every dip.
  • The 4900 - 4935 range has provided support at numerous times in the past. This month would be no different.
  • The Volumes for the month of July were lowest in the last trailing 12 months. The ADX is also hovering around 12. All this supports the view of rangebound/sideways trading.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Weekly Outlook

  • Nifty would get oversold below 4980.The short term mean is at 5172. This means that if Nifty were to fall down to 4980 with weak volumes it might attempt to move towards short term mean on the back of short covering. On the other hand if Nifty were to close below 4980 with heavy volumes, it would be a beginning of a downtrend.(Nifty is currently trading Sideways.)
  • Nifty would be bearish below 5060. This means that if Nifty closes below 5060 on any weekday, one should avoid going long or perhaps carrying long positions overnight, for rest of the week.
  • Most of the Stop Losses would be placed between 5060 to 5080, so expect to see lot of volatility if Nifty Quotes fall in that price band.
  • In intraday charts of various time periods, there is an indication of a reversal. This reversal would hold as long as 5060 isn't breached during the course of trading. The first target of this reversal would be the Short Term Mean which is 5172
  • Nifty would be rangebound, if it continues to trade between 5060 and 5280

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Back For Good

First of all thanks for all your mails. It's been close to an year, that I took any serious interest in blogging. But now I am back.

The objective of this blog has always been to appreciate, explore, and profit from the Study of Technical Analysis. And I hope to continue with the same spirit and innocence.

Most of you have requested me to focus on weekly and monthly charts, as that kind of analysis is not commonplace over the internet or idiot box. And after a long thought on this I have agreed in Principle to at least Focus on Weekly Time Horizon.

Starting from this week I am back with my weekly analysis. With the passage of time, I would make it as exhaustive as possible.

So I would start with my signature style discussing various levels...

Starting With the Name Of God, Most Merciful and Most Beneficent,

  1. Nifty is currently range-bound between 5110 and 5340.
  2. Nifty could go down all the way down to 4990 without disturbing the uptrend in Weekly Charts. The significance of this statement is that we are in a mild uptrend. So there is no reason for any panic.
  3. The ETF traders could buy Nifty BEES or Bank Nifty BEES on dips
  4. The investors could continue to sit on the side lines as there isn't much for them in the current scenario.
  5. Most of the momentum indicators/oscillators have developed Head and Shoulders Pattern. Generally Head and Shoulders Patterns are most effective in Elliott Wave B Corrective Waves. Since in Weekly Charts we are witnessing the B wave, we could expect a somewhat strong downmove as and when the C would start, although I doubt that it would be deep due to inflationary pressures in the economy.
  6. Wave A -> 6338.50 to 4531.15 = 1807.35 Points.

    Wave a of Wave B -> 4531.15 to 5629.95 = 1098.80 Points.

    Wave b of Wave B -> 5629.95 to 4770.35 = 859.6 Points.

    Wave c of Wave B is in Progress..
  7. Download your FREE copy of BSAR Booklet detailing about BSAR trading System.

Friday, July 6, 2012

Return of the Dragon

I wish to return to active blogging, about my favorite subject of Technical Analysis. If any of my esteemed readers have any suggestions, please feel free to write to me at am.javed AT gmail.com or just leave a comment.