Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
- So Nifty finally crossed 5175 in style
- Technically Nifty is in Overbought Zone - that is confirmed by several parameters
- But that doesn't warrant a reversal, only a swing, a correction
- This rise has been engineered by dear FIIs buying out of shame
- Unless they start selling, Nifty isn't going down
- I had warned not to short unless there was a failure swing, those who followed me must have been happy
- Now there's another cause to rejoice - BSAR system has been completed - see the link on the right below the table
- I have tried to develop an FII proof system which would work in all market conditions
- Nifty's next target is around 5380, provided it clears 5310 odd levels
- But 5380 seems unlikely this week
- Those who are short from above 5000 levels - should wait - if they can
- There is no failure swing yet in Nifty
- Bank Nifty: Looks Ill!
Friday, March 12, 2010
- Nify shied away from 78.6% retrace at 5175 of the previous swing.
- The Weekly Overbought level is now at 5221 and Oversold Level is at 4817
- The Phantom Price Line is at 5019
- The Biased Stop And Reverse is at 4931
- The VHF(29) is at 0.17 now against a median of 0.41 and std dev of 0.12
- The ADX(14) is at 16.4 against a median of 29.5 and std dev of 9
- The W%R(29) is at 22.4
- The RSI(14) is at 58
- The OBV(daily) is back in Trend. So it confirms the statement in Monthly Outlook, "Buy on Dips". Even FIIs have taken that statement seriously. Let's see where do they offload.
- The overall picture suggests limited upside, Nifty might try to take 5175 in a gap, but is likely to face selling Pressure above 5217. On the other hand, as long as Daily Nifty Closing is above 4929, all through the next week, the trend is likely to remain bullish.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
- So this is what it is!
- So what the heck it is?
- Squeeze (I don'' meanno offen' nobody)
- Wear your reading glasses, see the RSI, vis-a-vis Bollinger Bands
- The Nifty made a high of 5310.85 on Jan 6, 2010; and a low of 4675.40 on Feb 8, 2010. A range of 635.45 points
- Major retrace pivots come around:: 38.2% => 4918; 61.8% => 5068; 78.6% => 5175; 111% => 5380;
- The Weekly Overbought Level corresponds to 5172, which corresponds with 78.6% retrace of 5175, and a critical point which if crossed would take Nifty to 5380
- Those traders who are planning to short Nifty should keep their Stop Loss around 5180
- The BSAR is at 4851, it gives Nifty enough width to fool novice bulls and bears at one go
- The VHF (29) Weeks is continuing at 21, reflecting the fact that there is a reversal at hand, which might prevail for many weeks
- The ADX is falling, now at 17
- The W%R for 29 weeks has come at -23; likey to create a negative divergence
- The RSI continues in downtrend now at 57
- The MFI is at 65 now; knocking at the door of 70
- The Index Options PCR is at 1.38, signifying the point of inflection for put writing
- India VIX is at ridiculously low level
“Gold's quantity cannot increase at the same rate as you can print money, which will eventually weaken the US dollar. I’m not saying that the dollar will go straight away down because other currencies like the euro are even worse at the present time. But eventually if you print money, the purchasing power will lose value." Sometimes I wonder, who's following whom!!!
Thursday, March 4, 2010
- Why did Nifty rise so madly?
- Honestly I didn't expect that Nifty would home deliver me an overbought level (Check the table on the right)
- But I am watching about 50 different kinds of level 1 and level 2 indicators, and a level 2 screen, the reason was simply the shorters stop losses, that were hit. Please don't short without reading this post at least three times. Don't shoot in the dark. If nifty crosses 5479, we would see 6600 in a flash. Advise your friends, relatives or whoever would care to listen, the trick that you learn from this post.....
- Although Nifty would rise was beyond any doubt, but that it would get overbought and give us a lollipop trade so soon wasn't expected. People who have been following my teaching must be smiling all the way to bank and preparing to buy something expensive, and would find the next trade another blessing, but if you are new here, or do not know what all I have been teaching then read my advice even more carefully..........
- Allah, The Most Merciful, and The Most Beneficent is kind to all of us.
- Now keep an eye on the Weekly Overbought levels, and Failure Swing in daily charts, UNLESS A FAILURE SWING OCCURS IN EITHER 14 DAYS RSI OR SLOW STOCHASTIC WITH 5,3,3, SETTINGS, DON'T SHORT...NO FAILURE SWING NO SHORTING, NIFTY WOULD CORRECT BY AT LEAST 150 POINTS.........WEEKLY BSAR LEVEL IS VERY DEEP.............NIFTY COULD EASILY TEST IT......AND THAT'S WHERE NOVICE TRADER COULD FALTER...........................
- A failure swing could occur in price charts as well as indicators
- But here I am talking about failure swing in indicators
- A failure swing in an indicator like Stochastic or RSI is a confirmatory signal of a reversal
- So what is a failure swing?
- Follow these links:
- Would gladly accept any 200 points sure shot swing, thanks Nifty & FIIs!!!
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Monday, March 1, 2010
- The Overbought level is 5470, the Oversold Level is 4328
- The Phantom Price Line is at 4899, BSAR is at 4644, TRIX is at 4104
- The Important Pivots would be, 4328 4450 4546 4681 4764 4899 5034 5117 5185 5252 5348 5470
- The Nifty is buy on dips, keep SL @ 4644 Spot
- The PCR for Nifty Options for January: µ=1, s.d.=0.87 k=1 band =1.09 to 0.91; closed on 1.17; we had expected some rampant Put writing in last month, now is the time for Call writing and Put unwinding.
- Reverse Bullish Divergence in Short Term Momentum Oscillators, first down then up, but as long as 5479 is not crossed, ultimate target remains at 1300.