Monday, August 31, 2009

Traders Compass

  1. Nifty is in the swing mode
  2. Nifty would be oversold at 4556.55, this could be the day low
  3. The 5 ema is at 4666.25. This could be the day high
  4. Below 4556.55 the supports would be placed at 4544.30 and 4526.70
  5. Between high and low the main pivots would be 4626, 4591, 4555.

Traders Compass

  1. Nifty has resistances at 4756, 4779, 4786.
  2. Nifty has supports at 4710.65, 4694.50, 4668.35.
  3. Nifty would be overbought at 4779.
  4. Volume Indicators are confirming the Breakout.
  5. Momentum Oscillators are in divergence.
  6. So do not expect a Trend Reversal in Short Term, but only a correction.
  7. The day high could be around 4756.
  8. The day low could be around 4674.50

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Guidance for Next Trading Session

  1. Today Nifty closed at 4688.20.
  2. The high was 4707.90 and low was 4645.15; a range of 62.75; yesterday it was 38.70
  3. The 14 day Average True Range, a measure of average range has been 130, for past many months;
  4. So expect a sudden blast in coming sessions.
  5. Nifty would be overbought above 4748.45 and oversold below 4524.30;
  6. The 5 ema is at 4636.
  7. The 14 day RSI reads 60.25.
  8. For Tomorrow Resistances are placed at 4705.65, 4724.45
  9. Supports are placed at 4679.20, 4662.80, 4653, 4636.45, 4609.90,
  10. The day's high could be around 4724.45
  11. The day's low could be around 4679.20
  12. The day's close might be flat to positive.
  13. Nifty is unlikely to close above 4756 in August.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Trading Ideas

  1. Tomorrow is the Settlement day of the current month FNO Series;
  2. This day is generally more volatile than all the other trading days of the month;
  3. The Over Bought Level for tomorrow would be 4726.30;
  4. Nifty might face strong resistance at 4701.50 - 4705.
  5. The Day's range would be bigger than todays (38.7);
  6. The 5 ema is at 4610.45;
  7. The day low could be lower than todays low of 4659.10;
  8. The Put to Call Ratio Data suggests, anticipation of a Reversal by some people;
  9. The Volatilty Data Suggests that, Volatility might rise in coming sessions;
  10. Day Traders should take advantage while Volatility is still low;
  11. Those holding Longs in Futures, Calls, ETFs, Shares, are advised to hedge;
  12. No sign of a Swing Reversal;

Some Trading Ideas

  1. Overbought level for today is 4697.05. This might be the day high for today.
  2. Resistances above Overbought level are, 4705, 4710 and 4730.
  3. 5 ema is at 4575.25
  4. Supports would be placed at 4604, 4621.80, 4636, 4650.50
  5. Day Low might be around 4604.
  6. Volatility is still favouring Day Traders.
  7. A negative to flat closing is possible.
  8. The Uptrend that started in March is losing strength.
  9. There is still no sign of swing reversal.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

HInts For Trading

  1. Today, Nifty is likely to trade in a bigger range.
  2. Nifty would be overbought above 4657.40.
  3. Resistances above the overbought level are 4671.35 and 4691.20
  4. Supports are placed at 4609.95, 4580.65, 4570
  5. The 5 ema is at 4533.
  6. Nifty MIGHT try 4671.35 above and 4580.65, below.
  7. It seems like expiry would be around 4580.
  8. Please do not initiate Positional Shorts, unless there is a swing reversal in sight
  9. Today Nifty might favour Day Traders.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Some Trading Ideas

  1. Nifty made a swing high of 4619 on 14 Aug 2009. Swing low was 4353.45 on 19 Aug 2009.
  2. Range => 265.55;
  3. 61.80% of 266.55 => 164;
  4. Low + 164 => 4353.45 + 164 = 4517.55;
  5. Nifty closed at 4528.80; Meaning Nifty is/was Bullish...;
  6. Now Nifty would try to take the previous high of 4619;
  7. 14 day ATR is 120. Do not expect a big range on Monday;
  8. So 4528.80 + 120 = 4648.80. The high of the day is likely to be lower than 4653, in all cases;
  9. Nifty would be Over Bought at 4602.35, with resistances at 4616.25, 4636.10, and 4653.70;
  10. The region between 4591 and 4568 would act as a support. 4636 and 4653 would be very stiff resistances;
All The Best

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Long Or Short ???

Dear Friends, I have stumbled upon a very queer finding. No matter which system I try, if I derive the ratio of gains in long trades to gains in short trades it hovers around 150% !!!!! To put it simply, No matter which system you follow, if you buy on dips, your total gains would be 1.5 times that of the gains derived from sell on rise. So never miss an opportunity to go long!!!! Happy hunting.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Outlook

  1. 5 ema is at 4453;
  2. Overbought level is 4576, & Oversold is 4330;
  3. Nifty still stuck in a range;
  4. 14 day RSI is at 49, ATR is 123;
  5. 20 SMA is 4541, 20 EMA is 4482.
  6. Nifty would try to touch the Overbought levels, although it's just not seeing any real buying.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

TARGET 4600?

  1. There is a bullish hidden divergence in all momentum oscillators.
  2. The 5 ema is at 4482.
  3. The Nifty would be oversold below 4357 and overbought above 4607, as on today.
  4. We can look forward to the overbought state in coming sessions. Don't remain short above 4525
  5. Very aggressive traders looking for overnight gains might want to short tomorrow when 5 minute RSI > 80, for 50 - 70 points, gain on Friday.(This advice is only for professional traders)
  6. Nifty continues to be rangebound.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Some Trading Ideas

Today we are likely to witness a range bound market with a negative bias. The Oversold region is between 4415 - 4430. The Overbought Region is between 4665 - 4680. Nifty is likely to open around 4572 or lower. So we might witness a negative opening followed by further weakness as the day would progress, unless some positive news comes in. A long position could be initiated keeping 4396.20 as SL. in the oversold region. And a short position could be initiated keeping 4700 as SL, in the overbought region. 5 ema is around 4547, a breach would signal short term weakness. All the Best.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Who's Best and Ahead? Me or Bob Prechter?

Robert Prechter Has Gone Bearish

By Dr. Declan Fallon

Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave International has gone bearish, bringing to an end his bullish February/March rally call. In the video he talks about a break of March lows - no chump change, so is this likely? The core thesis is based on how Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) applies to the current cyclical bear market. In EWT, trends move in five phases (waves) and counter-trends in three. According to Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliottave.com the last 25+ years have seen a five wave bull trend which has been followed by a two wave of three bear counter-trend. Assuming the second wave of the counter-trend has completed all that is left is the inevitable third wave of the counter-trend; this is what Bob Prechter is looking at as the way forward.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/155814-robert-prechter-has-gone-bearish

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Trading Idea For The Next Week

There are Fibonacci and and Swing Support & Resistance clusters between 4780 - 4790. If Nifty reaches there keep 4819.05 as Stop Loss, Short Nifty, for a target of 4674.20, 4605, 4562.15. I would expect a minimum of 200 points from this trade. All Prices are Nifty Spot.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Your Comments & My Answers

Sajal Ji, Make good use of this sense. Ashish ji, We'd talk. VK ji, I am neither a bull nor a bear, but a true market-man. I suspect that current bullish scenario is an attempt by the strong hands to wipe out small traders, before the next bull run. The momentum indicators on monthly charts, indicate correction from current levels. The X-O system of charting is referred to as P&F Charting. I would include some links for folks who want to understand them a bit. Thanks for your prayers, I need them always. Rishi ji, Please stick to your forum for expressing weird ideas. That's the place, nowadays. Sureela ji Nifty could easily correct upto 3894, and still remain bullish, this is why ::: Swing Low :=> 2539 Swing High :=> 4731 Range :=> 4731 - 2539 = 2192 61.8% of Range :=> 2192 * 61.8/100 = 1355 Swing Low + 61.8% of Range :=> 2539 + 1355 = 3894 Below 3894 Nifty would turn bearish and has support at 3056 & 2022. This calculation would need to be adjusted if 4731 is breached. Rajamani ji, In the Point and Figure Charting parlance, a bull trap is any buy or sell signal which reverts back without covering at least 3 boxes in the direction of the trade. Of course this is in the context of End Of the Day Charts. Such a trade eventually leads to a profitable trade in the opposite direction. Many eccentric and reclusive traders who practice Point and Figure Charting, actually initiate an opposite trade when a Buy or Sell Signal occurs, near major support and resistances. For example Nifty breached 4693 and touched 4731, and reverted and touched 4359. A PNF practitioner would have shorted at 4700 itself, keeping 4800 as SL. As far as Nifty is concerned, we all are awaiting a clear signal as to whether it'd breach 5479 or touch 1300. Ashfaq ji,
The SL for Long Position should be 4550, and a target of 4710, minimum. Please ignore the first 10 minutes of the trading on Monday. If SL is taken keep 4620 as SL and target of 4420 minimum.

The Rime of the Ancient Mariner

And through the drifts the snowy clifts Did send a dismal sheen : Nor shapes of men nor beasts we ken-- The ice was all between.

The ice was here, the ice was there, The ice was all around : It cracked and growled, and roared and howled, Like noises in a swound !

At length did cross an Albatross, Thorough the fog it came ; As if it had been a Christian soul, We hailed it in God's name.

It ate the food it ne'er had eat, And round and round it flew. The ice did split with a thunder-fit ; The helmsman steered us through !

And a good south wind sprung up behind ; The Albatross did follow, And every day, for food or play, Came to the mariner's hollo !

In mist or cloud, on mast or shroud, It perched for vespers nine ; Whiles all the night, through fog-smoke white, Glimmered the white Moon-shine.'

`God save thee, ancient Mariner ! From the fiends, that plague thee thus !-- Why look'st thou so ?'--With my cross-bow I shot the ALBATROSS...

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Fibonacci Analysis 12 Aug 2009

Nifty made a high of 4731.45 on 4th Aug 2009. Subsequently, on 12th of August it touched a low of 4359.40. The Range comes out to be 371.8. On correction watch following levels ::: =>Low + 371.8*23.6% = 4447.15 =>Low + 371.8*38.2% = 4501.40 =>Low + 371.8*61.8% = 4589.20 =>Low + 371.8*78.6% = 4651.60 =>low + 371.8*127.2%= 4832.30 The minimum target for correction as of now should be 38.2% i.e, 4501.40

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

11-Aug-2009

Rangebound....... If Nifty crosses 4800, then it would form one of the bloodiest bull traps, I would have ever seen

Friday, August 7, 2009

07-Aug-2009

In short term Nifty may bounce from Current Levels. In Medium Term, Nifty is loosing Strength.

Nifty View So Far

  1. If Nifty Breaches 3900 in near term then it'd seek support at 3200
  2. Watch 4420 closely, if breached on closing basis, then hell would break loose.