- Nifty is in the swing mode
- Nifty would be oversold at 4556.55, this could be the day low
- The 5 ema is at 4666.25. This could be the day high
- Below 4556.55 the supports would be placed at 4544.30 and 4526.70
- Between high and low the main pivots would be 4626, 4591, 4555.
Monday, August 31, 2009
- Nifty has resistances at 4756, 4779, 4786.
- Nifty has supports at 4710.65, 4694.50, 4668.35.
- Nifty would be overbought at 4779.
- Volume Indicators are confirming the Breakout.
- Momentum Oscillators are in divergence.
- So do not expect a Trend Reversal in Short Term, but only a correction.
- The day high could be around 4756.
- The day low could be around 4674.50
Thursday, August 27, 2009
- Today Nifty closed at 4688.20.
- The high was 4707.90 and low was 4645.15; a range of 62.75; yesterday it was 38.70
- The 14 day Average True Range, a measure of average range has been 130, for past many months;
- So expect a sudden blast in coming sessions.
- Nifty would be overbought above 4748.45 and oversold below 4524.30;
- The 5 ema is at 4636.
- The 14 day RSI reads 60.25.
- For Tomorrow Resistances are placed at 4705.65, 4724.45
- Supports are placed at 4679.20, 4662.80, 4653, 4636.45, 4609.90,
- The day's high could be around 4724.45
- The day's low could be around 4679.20
- The day's close might be flat to positive.
- Nifty is unlikely to close above 4756 in August.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
- Tomorrow is the Settlement day of the current month FNO Series;
- This day is generally more volatile than all the other trading days of the month;
- The Over Bought Level for tomorrow would be 4726.30;
- Nifty might face strong resistance at 4701.50 - 4705.
- The Day's range would be bigger than todays (38.7);
- The 5 ema is at 4610.45;
- The day low could be lower than todays low of 4659.10;
- The Put to Call Ratio Data suggests, anticipation of a Reversal by some people;
- The Volatilty Data Suggests that, Volatility might rise in coming sessions;
- Day Traders should take advantage while Volatility is still low;
- Those holding Longs in Futures, Calls, ETFs, Shares, are advised to hedge;
- No sign of a Swing Reversal;
- Overbought level for today is 4697.05. This might be the day high for today.
- Resistances above Overbought level are, 4705, 4710 and 4730.
- 5 ema is at 4575.25
- Supports would be placed at 4604, 4621.80, 4636, 4650.50
- Day Low might be around 4604.
- Volatility is still favouring Day Traders.
- A negative to flat closing is possible.
- The Uptrend that started in March is losing strength.
- There is still no sign of swing reversal.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
- Today, Nifty is likely to trade in a bigger range.
- Nifty would be overbought above 4657.40.
- Resistances above the overbought level are 4671.35 and 4691.20
- Supports are placed at 4609.95, 4580.65, 4570
- The 5 ema is at 4533.
- Nifty MIGHT try 4671.35 above and 4580.65, below.
- It seems like expiry would be around 4580.
- Please do not initiate Positional Shorts, unless there is a swing reversal in sight
- Today Nifty might favour Day Traders.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
- Nifty made a swing high of 4619 on 14 Aug 2009. Swing low was 4353.45 on 19 Aug 2009.
- Range => 265.55;
- 61.80% of 266.55 => 164;
- Low + 164 => 4353.45 + 164 = 4517.55;
- Nifty closed at 4528.80; Meaning Nifty is/was Bullish...;
- Now Nifty would try to take the previous high of 4619;
- 14 day ATR is 120. Do not expect a big range on Monday;
- So 4528.80 + 120 = 4648.80. The high of the day is likely to be lower than 4653, in all cases;
- Nifty would be Over Bought at 4602.35, with resistances at 4616.25, 4636.10, and 4653.70;
- The region between 4591 and 4568 would act as a support. 4636 and 4653 would be very stiff resistances;
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
- 5 ema is at 4453;
- Overbought level is 4576, & Oversold is 4330;
- Nifty still stuck in a range;
- 14 day RSI is at 49, ATR is 123;
- 20 SMA is 4541, 20 EMA is 4482.
- Nifty would try to touch the Overbought levels, although it's just not seeing any real buying.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
- There is a bullish hidden divergence in all momentum oscillators.
- The 5 ema is at 4482.
- The Nifty would be oversold below 4357 and overbought above 4607, as on today.
- We can look forward to the overbought state in coming sessions. Don't remain short above 4525
- Very aggressive traders looking for overnight gains might want to short tomorrow when 5 minute RSI > 80, for 50 - 70 points, gain on Friday.(This advice is only for professional traders)
- Nifty continues to be rangebound.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Robert Prechter Has Gone Bearish
By Dr. Declan Fallon
Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave International has gone bearish, bringing to an end his bullish February/March rally call. In the video he talks about a break of March lows - no chump change, so is this likely? The core thesis is based on how Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) applies to the current cyclical bear market. In EWT, trends move in five phases (waves) and counter-trends in three. According to Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliottave.com the last 25+ years have seen a five wave bull trend which has been followed by a two wave of three bear counter-trend. Assuming the second wave of the counter-trend has completed all that is left is the inevitable third wave of the counter-trend; this is what Bob Prechter is looking at as the way forward.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Friday, August 14, 2009
And through the drifts the snowy clifts Did send a dismal sheen : Nor shapes of men nor beasts we ken-- The ice was all between.
The ice was here, the ice was there, The ice was all around : It cracked and growled, and roared and howled, Like noises in a swound !
At length did cross an Albatross, Thorough the fog it came ; As if it had been a Christian soul, We hailed it in God's name.
It ate the food it ne'er had eat, And round and round it flew. The ice did split with a thunder-fit ; The helmsman steered us through !
In mist or cloud, on mast or shroud, It perched for vespers nine ; Whiles all the night, through fog-smoke white, Glimmered the white Moon-shine.'
`God save thee, ancient Mariner ! From the fiends, that plague thee thus !-- Why look'st thou so ?'--With my cross-bow I shot the ALBATROSS...